OpenAI and Gemini Market Share Competition Intensifies, Potential Stock Market Correction in 2026

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

GOOG+0.42%

ITRI+0.63%

TSLA-0.99%

Source: NASDAQ.COM

Updated: Jan 18 2026

0mins

Source: NASDAQ.COM

Market Share Shift: According to Similarweb, Gemini's market share surged from 5% to 18% in 2025, while ChatGPT's share fell from 87% to 68%, potentially undermining investor confidence in OpenAI.
Stock Market Correction Prediction: Historical data indicates that stock markets typically experience a correction of at least 10% every 1-2 years, and given the last correction in early 2025, another could be expected in the second half of 2026, prompting investor caution.
Electricity Bottleneck Issue: The demand for electricity from AI infrastructure is growing faster than supply, leading to rising electricity prices, with the Trump administration intervening to ensure Microsoft does not pass these costs onto consumers, which could impact the AI sector's growth.
Investment Opportunities: Amid the electricity bottleneck, companies like Itron and Tesla may benefit from optimizing existing grid capabilities to meet increasing demand, presenting potential investment opportunities in the energy sector.

GOOG

$335+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on GOOG

Wall Street analysts forecast GOOG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GOOG is 336.08 USD with a low forecast of 255.00 USD and a high forecast of 400.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

15 Analyst Rating

14 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 333.590

Low

255.00

Averages

336.08

High

400.00

Current: 333.590

Low

255.00

Averages

336.08

High

400.00

Raymond James

Outperform -> Strong Buy

upgrade

$315 -> $400

2026-01-22

Reason

Raymond James

Price Target

$315 -> $400

AI Analysis

2026-01-22

upgrade

Outperform -> Strong Buy

Reason

Raymond James upgraded Alphabet to Strong Buy from Outperform with a price target of $400, up from $315. The firm's updated bottom-up analysis of Google Cloud Platform and Search drives a material upward revision to 2026-2027 estimates, with 2027 revenue now at the high end of the Street and supporting the upgrade, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Improving AI Stack momentum is expected to fuel upward revisions and position Alphabet as a high-quality top-line AI acceleration story, with fundamentals, rather than multiple reversion, driving mega-cap Internet performance in 2026.

BTIG

Neutral

maintain

2025-12-17

Reason

BTIG

Price Target

2025-12-17

maintain

Neutral

Reason

BTIG says speculation yesterday that Google's (GOOG) for-sale home listings at the top of mobile searches have been pulled sparked "some relief" for Zillow Group (ZG). However, BTIG was able to surface the mobile for-sale listings test in a search this morning, with the listings still including data from the same platform as before along with sponsored links paid for by brokers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. "This saga may not be over just yet," according to the firm. BTIG believes that "while scary, this isn't relevant to near-term estimates." It keeps a Neutral rating on Zillow.

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TD Cowen

Buy

maintain

$335 -> $350

2025-12-12

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$335 -> $350

2025-12-12

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Alphabet (GOOG) to $350 from $335 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm increased the company's search estimates on its "positive" U.S. survey data. The data show ramping Gemini chatbot usage following the launch of Gemini 3, continued increases in search engagement driven by AI Mode and AI Overviews usage, and increasing share of ChatGPT users that are also using Gemini, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

William Blair

maintain

$28.83

2025-12-11

Reason

William Blair

Price Target

$28.83

2025-12-11

maintain

Reason

William Blair took a "sober look" at Warby Parker's (WBRY) partnership with Google (GOOG, GOOGL). Warby shares are down 3% to $28.83 in afternoon trading. In the early days, "maybe" Google's artificial intelligence glasses can research $20M in annual sales, "but certainly not in 2026," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says it has heard of "some relatively aggressive assumptions" on what the Google partnership with Warby Parker for AI-enabled glasses could contribute from a revenue and margin standpoint in recent weaks. Blair analyzed the potential for the glasses relative to the partnership between Meta (META) and EssilorLuxottica for the Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. The firm points out that EssilorLuxottica has 55-times the amount of physical stores compared to Warby Parker. At an average price point of $450, assuming the Google AI glasses are priced competitively to Ray-Ban Meta, this would support total unit sales of 45,000, Blair estimates.

About GOOG

Alphabet Inc. is a holding company. The Company's segments include Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. The Google Services segment includes products and services such as ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Google Maps, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. The Google Cloud segment includes infrastructure and platform services, collaboration tools, and other services for enterprise customers. Its Other Bets segment is engaged in the sale of healthcare-related services and Internet services. Its Google Cloud provides enterprise-ready cloud services, including Google Cloud Platform and Google Workspace. Google Cloud Platform provides access to solutions such as artificial intelligence (AI) offerings, including its AI infrastructure, Vertex AI platform, and Gemini for Google Cloud; cybersecurity, and data and analytics. Google Workspace includes cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Calendar, Gmail, Docs, Drive, and Meet.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.