Progressive announces Q3 EPS of $4.45, below consensus estimate of $5.05
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 15 2025
0mins
Should l Buy PGR?
- Net Premiums Written: The company reported net premiums written of $21.4 billion, an increase from $19.5 billion the previous year.
- Net Premiums Earned: Net premiums earned rose to $20.8 billion, up from $18.3 billion last year.
- Combined Ratio: The combined ratio was reported at 89.5%, slightly higher than the 89% from the previous year.
- Year-over-Year Growth: Overall, the company experienced growth in both net premiums written and earned compared to the previous year.
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Analyst Views on PGR
Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 203.280
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
Current: 203.280
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
About PGR
The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company’s segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Its special lines of products include recreational vehicles, such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft. Its Personal Lines products are sold through both the agency and direct channels. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Its reinsurance activity includes both transactions which are regulated and those that are non-regulated. It offers shopping tools and services, such as Name Your Price, Snapshot, and HomeQuote Explorer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Progressive Reports Significant Growth in January Premiums
- Premium Revenue Growth: Progressive estimates its January net premiums written at $6.74 billion, a 4% increase from $6.48 billion a year ago, indicating strong market performance and an expanding customer base.
- Net Premiums Earned Forecast: The company anticipates net premiums earned to reach $6.92 billion in January, up 5% from $6.59 billion last year, demonstrating a consistent upward trend in premium income.
- Earnings Per Share Expectation: GAAP EPS is projected at $1.98, reflecting a 4.2% increase from $1.90 a year ago, showcasing improved profitability and enhanced financial health.
- Combined Ratio Projection: The projected combined ratio of 84.4% highlights the company's ongoing underwriting discipline, which is crucial for maintaining profitability and competitive positioning in the market.
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RPT: JANUARY 2026 RESULTS FROM PROGRESSIVE
Progressive Reports: The January 2026 results highlight significant advancements in various sectors, showcasing the impact of progressive policies.
Key Findings: The report emphasizes improvements in social equity, economic growth, and environmental sustainability as primary outcomes of the implemented strategies.
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PROGRESSIVE CORP - COMMON SHAREHOLDERS' EARNINGS PER SHARE REACH $1.98 IN JANUARY 2026, A 4% INCREASE (CORRECTS BY REMOVING 'NET INCOME')
- Net Income Per Share: Corrected Progressive Corp's net income per share available to common shareholders is reported at $1.98 for January 2026.
- Percentage Increase: This figure represents a 4% increase compared to previous reports.
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Daniel Loeb Reshuffles Third Point Portfolio
- Portfolio Restructuring: Billionaire hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb reshuffled his Third Point LLC portfolio in Q4 2025, adding several new consumer and international investments, indicating a pursuit of market diversification.
- Reduced Mega-Cap Exposure: In the latest Form 13F filing, Loeb trimmed stakes in select mega-cap and semiconductor names, reflecting a cautious stance towards these sectors, possibly due to concerns over market volatility.
- New Buy Highlights: Among the new acquisitions, Loeb focused on consumer goods and international markets, likely aiming to capture opportunities arising from global economic recovery and enhance the growth potential of his portfolio.
- Regulatory Transparency: Loeb's portfolio changes are disclosed through the 13F filing as required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, increasing transparency for the hedge fund and helping investors better understand its investment strategies and market outlook.
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Investors Eye Opportunities in Undervalued Stocks
- Sprouts Farmers Market Undervalued: Sprouts Farmers Market stock has plummeted over 60% since its peak in 2024, now trading at less than 12 times the projected earnings of $5.74 per share, significantly below the analyst target of $108.73, indicating a market misunderstanding of its growth potential in the health food sector.
- Progressive Insurance Value: Progressive stock is currently priced at less than 13 times earnings, with a projected dividend yield of nearly 6.7%, and despite slowing revenue growth, the company continues to perform well in the insurance industry, highlighting its investment appeal.
- PayPal's Market Control: PayPal stock is valued at less than eight times expected earnings of $5.34 per share, and despite fierce competition in the digital payment space, it still commands about 40% of the market, demonstrating its strong position in the industry.
- Potential of New CEO: PayPal is set to welcome new CEO Enrique Lores, who is expected to bring fresh ideas and perspectives, potentially revitalizing the company and helping it maintain its competitive edge in a crowded market.
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Analysis of Progressive Corp. Holdings Changes
- Holdings Overview: In the latest 13F filings as of December 31, 2025, Progressive Corp. (PGR) was held by 10 hedge funds, indicating sustained market interest, although these holdings do not fully reflect the funds' overall perspectives.
- Position Changes: Among these funds, 3 increased their PGR positions while 3 decreased theirs, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment that could impact future stock price volatility.
- Aggregate Holdings Growth: The total PGR shares held by hedge funds increased to 131,547,124 as of December 31, 2025, up from 130,767,833 on September 30, 2025, representing an increase of 779,291 shares or approximately 0.60%, reflecting a generally positive outlook on the stock.
- Research Value: Although 13F filings only show long positions, analyzing changes across multiple funds can reveal deeper market trends, providing investors with opportunities for further research.
See More
Progressive Reports Significant Growth in January Premiums
- Premium Revenue Growth: Progressive estimates its January net premiums written at $6.74 billion, a 4% increase from $6.48 billion a year ago, indicating strong market performance and an expanding customer base.
- Net Premiums Earned Forecast: The company anticipates net premiums earned to reach $6.92 billion in January, up 5% from $6.59 billion last year, demonstrating a consistent upward trend in premium income.
- Earnings Per Share Expectation: GAAP EPS is projected at $1.98, reflecting a 4.2% increase from $1.90 a year ago, showcasing improved profitability and enhanced financial health.
- Combined Ratio Projection: The projected combined ratio of 84.4% highlights the company's ongoing underwriting discipline, which is crucial for maintaining profitability and competitive positioning in the market.
See More
RPT: JANUARY 2026 RESULTS FROM PROGRESSIVE
Progressive Reports: The January 2026 results highlight significant advancements in various sectors, showcasing the impact of progressive policies.
Key Findings: The report emphasizes improvements in social equity, economic growth, and environmental sustainability as primary outcomes of the implemented strategies.
See More
PROGRESSIVE CORP - COMMON SHAREHOLDERS' EARNINGS PER SHARE REACH $1.98 IN JANUARY 2026, A 4% INCREASE (CORRECTS BY REMOVING 'NET INCOME')
- Net Income Per Share: Corrected Progressive Corp's net income per share available to common shareholders is reported at $1.98 for January 2026.
- Percentage Increase: This figure represents a 4% increase compared to previous reports.
See More
Daniel Loeb Reshuffles Third Point Portfolio
- Portfolio Restructuring: Billionaire hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb reshuffled his Third Point LLC portfolio in Q4 2025, adding several new consumer and international investments, indicating a pursuit of market diversification.
- Reduced Mega-Cap Exposure: In the latest Form 13F filing, Loeb trimmed stakes in select mega-cap and semiconductor names, reflecting a cautious stance towards these sectors, possibly due to concerns over market volatility.
- New Buy Highlights: Among the new acquisitions, Loeb focused on consumer goods and international markets, likely aiming to capture opportunities arising from global economic recovery and enhance the growth potential of his portfolio.
- Regulatory Transparency: Loeb's portfolio changes are disclosed through the 13F filing as required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, increasing transparency for the hedge fund and helping investors better understand its investment strategies and market outlook.
See More
Investors Eye Opportunities in Undervalued Stocks
- Sprouts Farmers Market Undervalued: Sprouts Farmers Market stock has plummeted over 60% since its peak in 2024, now trading at less than 12 times the projected earnings of $5.74 per share, significantly below the analyst target of $108.73, indicating a market misunderstanding of its growth potential in the health food sector.
- Progressive Insurance Value: Progressive stock is currently priced at less than 13 times earnings, with a projected dividend yield of nearly 6.7%, and despite slowing revenue growth, the company continues to perform well in the insurance industry, highlighting its investment appeal.
- PayPal's Market Control: PayPal stock is valued at less than eight times expected earnings of $5.34 per share, and despite fierce competition in the digital payment space, it still commands about 40% of the market, demonstrating its strong position in the industry.
- Potential of New CEO: PayPal is set to welcome new CEO Enrique Lores, who is expected to bring fresh ideas and perspectives, potentially revitalizing the company and helping it maintain its competitive edge in a crowded market.
See More
Analysis of Progressive Corp. Holdings Changes
- Holdings Overview: In the latest 13F filings as of December 31, 2025, Progressive Corp. (PGR) was held by 10 hedge funds, indicating sustained market interest, although these holdings do not fully reflect the funds' overall perspectives.
- Position Changes: Among these funds, 3 increased their PGR positions while 3 decreased theirs, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment that could impact future stock price volatility.
- Aggregate Holdings Growth: The total PGR shares held by hedge funds increased to 131,547,124 as of December 31, 2025, up from 130,767,833 on September 30, 2025, representing an increase of 779,291 shares or approximately 0.60%, reflecting a generally positive outlook on the stock.
- Research Value: Although 13F filings only show long positions, analyzing changes across multiple funds can reveal deeper market trends, providing investors with opportunities for further research.
See More
