Lululemon Expects Holiday Quarter Revenue of $3.6 Billion Amid CEO Transition
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 12 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Holiday Quarter Expectations: Lululemon anticipates holiday quarter revenue nearing $3.6 billion and earnings around $4.76 per share, both at the high end of prior guidance, demonstrating resilience amid CEO transition and proxy battle.
- Discount Strategy Shift: Although historically cautious with discounts, Lululemon has increased markdowns to clear old inventory, resulting in a 2.9 percentage point decline in gross margins during Q3, reflecting intensified market competition.
- Competitor Performance: Birkenstock expects an 11% sales growth in the holiday quarter to €402 million ($470 million), but failed to meet investor expectations, leading to a 3% drop in shares during premarket trading.
- Overall Market Trends: While Savers Value Village reported an 8.4% sales increase during the holiday quarter, the company only reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 adjusted net income and EBITDA outlook, indicating cautious expectations for consumer spending.
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Analyst Views on BIRK
Wall Street analysts forecast BIRK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BIRK is 59.05 USD with a low forecast of 49.00 USD and a high forecast of 66.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 37.720
Low
49.00
Averages
59.05
High
66.00
Current: 37.720
Low
49.00
Averages
59.05
High
66.00
About BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc operates through Birkenstock Group B.V. & Co. KG and its subsidiaries. Birkenstock is a global brand, which has developed a unisex portfolio of footbed-based products that serve consumers of all geographies, genders, ages, and income levels. Its proprietary footbed, which reflects the anatomy of the human foot, represents the foundation of its brand and products. It operates a vertically integrated manufacturing base and produces all its footbeds in Germany. BIRKENSTOCK offers a wide range of products that go beyond footwear, including sleep systems and natural cosmetics, catering to both entry-level and luxury markets. The Company operates its channels, utilizing the business-to-business (B2B) channel to facilitate brand accessibility while fully engaging consumers in its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel, which offers its complete product range and access to its silhouettes.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Birkenstock Investor Day Outlook Highlights
- Revenue Growth Revision: Birkenstock now anticipates revenue growth between 13% and 15% over the next two years, down from earlier mid-to-high teens forecasts, reflecting a shift towards B2B sales and production constraints that may weaken market confidence in the company's future performance.
- Gross Margin Downgrade: The company has lowered its gross margin forecast from over 60% to a range of 57% to 58%, indicating pressure on profitability amid rising production costs and increased market competition, which could affect investors' long-term valuation of the company.
- B2B vs. DTC Sales Disparity: Management highlighted that B2B sales require approximately 2.5 pairs sold to equal the revenue of one DTC sale, and while B2B orders are typically placed nine months in advance, their slower revenue growth compared to DTC impacts overall revenue performance.
- Stock Performance Weakness: Despite BTIG analysts maintaining a bullish outlook on Birkenstock, the stock has declined 39% from last year, reflecting market concerns over slower revenue growth and tighter margins, which may lead investors to remain cautious in the short term.
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Birkenstock May Enhance Performance with Updated Price Targets
- Birkenstock's Challenges: The company continues to face difficulties, with each setback revealing new issues for investors.
- Investor Sentiment: Despite ongoing challenges, there remains a sense of uncertainty and concern among investors regarding the brand's future.
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