JPMorgan Lowers S&P 500 Year-End Forecast Amid Oil Surge
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 19 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- S&P 500 Forecast Cut: JPMorgan has revised its year-end S&P 500 forecast down from 7,500 to 7,200, indicating over an 8% upside from Wednesday's close, yet this new target ranks as the second lowest in CNBC's strategist survey, only above Bank of America's 7,100, reflecting a fragile market sentiment.
- Oil Price Surge Risks: Amid the ongoing war in Iran, oil prices have surged to around $111 per barrel, prompting strategist Lakos-Bujas to warn that a spike exceeding 30% typically exacerbates the negative correlation between S&P 500 and oil prices, potentially increasing recession risks.
- Consumer Demand Pressure: Lakos-Bujas emphasizes that investors are underestimating the impact of high oil prices on consumer demand, suggesting that rising prices not only affect inflation but also weaken consumer spending, which historically has led to corporate earnings pressure and recession following oil shocks.
- Technical Weakness: The S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day moving average, indicating a negative long-term trend, and if investors do not step in, support may only be found between 6,000 and 6,200, representing a potential drop of 6% to 9% from Wednesday's close.
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Analyst Views on JPM
Wall Street analysts forecast JPM stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 295.380
Low
260.00
Averages
341.38
High
400.00
Current: 295.380
Low
260.00
Averages
341.38
High
400.00
About JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a financial holding company. The Company is engaged in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing and asset management. The Company operates through three segments: Consumer & Community Banking (CCB), Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB), and Asset & Wealth Management (AWM). Its CCB segment offers products and services to consumers and small businesses through bank branches, ATMs, digital and telephone banking. Its CIB segment consists of banking and payments and markets and securities services, and offers a suite of investment banking, lending, payments, market-making, financing, custody and securities products and services to a global base of corporate and institutional clients. AWM segment offers investment and wealth management solutions. It offers multi-asset investment management solutions, retirement products and services, brokerage, custody, estate planning, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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