Impact of Weight-Loss Drugs on the Economy
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Restaurant Sector Struggles: The appetite suppression effects of weight-loss drugs are likely leading to reduced consumer spending at restaurants, with companies like Chipotle experiencing negative same-store sales growth for four consecutive quarters, indicating significant industry challenges.
- Fitness Industry Gains: Planet Fitness has seen a cumulative revenue growth of 171% over the past five years, with a 6.7% increase in same-club sales in 2025 and 1.1 million new members, suggesting a rising demand for fitness driven by weight-loss drug usage.
- Market Reset Risks: Should Americans significantly reduce calorie intake due to weight-loss drugs, the restaurant sector may face a permanent reset, as evidenced by Chipotle's stock dropping 50% from its highs, reflecting investor concerns about future performance.
- Portfolio Realignment: As consumers shift towards healthier lifestyles, investors need to reassess their holdings, as the proliferation of weight-loss drugs may create both opportunities and risks in the restaurant and fitness sectors.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 922.500
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 922.500
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
FDA Mandates Post-Marketing Trials for Eli Lilly's Weight Loss Pill Foundayo
- FDA Post-Marketing Requirement: The U.S. FDA has mandated Eli Lilly to conduct post-marketing trials for its newly approved weight loss pill, Foundayo, to evaluate risks related to liver injury, cardiovascular events, and delayed gastric emptying, highlighting regulatory scrutiny on drug safety shortly after approval.
- Drug Indication: Foundayo is approved for use alongside a lower-calorie diet and increased physical activity for weight management in overweight and obese adults, providing Eli Lilly with a new growth avenue in the competitive weight loss market, particularly against Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which has also received FDA approval.
- Lactation Study Requirement: The FDA has also requested a milk-only lactation study in lactating women to assess the presence of orforglipron in breast milk, aimed at ensuring transparency regarding the drug's safety for mothers and infants, thereby enhancing public confidence in its use.
- Market Competition Pressure: With the launch of Foundayo across U.S. retail pharmacies, Eli Lilly faces competitive pressure from rivals like Novo Nordisk, and the post-marketing trial requirements may impact its marketing strategies and sales expectations, especially in ensuring drug safety compliance.
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- Meeting Schedule: The upcoming meetings will focus on seven peptides scheduled for July 23 and 24, while another five will be reviewed at a future meeting before the end of February 2027, highlighting the FDA's ongoing scrutiny of peptide drugs.
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- Product Competitive Advantage: Eli Lilly's Zepbound demonstrated an average weight loss of 20.2% in clinical trials against Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which achieved only 13.7%, allowing Eli Lilly to lead the anti-obesity market and likely maintain this advantage going forward.
- Pipeline Potential: Eli Lilly's retatrutide showed an impressive 28.7% mean weight loss in a 68-week phase 3 study while alleviating knee pain, further solidifying its leadership in the weight loss drug market.
- Future Growth Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk faced setbacks in clinical trials, its robust pipeline still holds promise, and with a forward P/E of 11.2, it presents an attractive valuation that could yield significant returns for investors.
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- Market Leadership: Eli Lilly's Zepbound demonstrated an average weight loss of 20.2% over 72 weeks in clinical trials, significantly outperforming Novo Nordisk's Wegovy at 13.7%, establishing Eli Lilly as the leader in the anti-obesity market with expectations to maintain this advantage.
- Pipeline Strength: Eli Lilly's retatrutide showed an impressive 28.7% weight loss in a 68-week phase 3 study and is expected to gain approval in the coming years, further solidifying its leadership in the weight loss drug market and driving strong financial performance.
- Challenges for Novo Nordisk: Novo Nordisk's CagriSema underperformed in phase 3 studies and failed to surpass Zepbound, with its anti-obesity drug portfolio lagging behind Eli Lilly's, potentially impacting its market share and future growth prospects.
- Valuation Appeal: Despite Novo Nordisk's robust pipeline in anti-obesity drugs, its forward P/E ratio of 11.2 is below the healthcare sector average of 17.2, presenting a relatively attractive buying opportunity for investors, especially if upcoming new products can enhance sales and profits.
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- Healthcare Growth: Eli Lilly's stock rose 32% in 2022 due to strong demand for its GLP-1 drugs, and the recent approval of the weight-loss pill Foundayo could serve as a significant growth catalyst, despite a 14% decline this year, highlighting its ongoing appeal to investors.
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See More
FDA Mandates Post-Marketing Trials for Eli Lilly's Weight Loss Pill Foundayo
- FDA Post-Marketing Requirement: The U.S. FDA has mandated Eli Lilly to conduct post-marketing trials for its newly approved weight loss pill, Foundayo, to evaluate risks related to liver injury, cardiovascular events, and delayed gastric emptying, highlighting regulatory scrutiny on drug safety shortly after approval.
- Drug Indication: Foundayo is approved for use alongside a lower-calorie diet and increased physical activity for weight management in overweight and obese adults, providing Eli Lilly with a new growth avenue in the competitive weight loss market, particularly against Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which has also received FDA approval.
- Lactation Study Requirement: The FDA has also requested a milk-only lactation study in lactating women to assess the presence of orforglipron in breast milk, aimed at ensuring transparency regarding the drug's safety for mothers and infants, thereby enhancing public confidence in its use.
- Market Competition Pressure: With the launch of Foundayo across U.S. retail pharmacies, Eli Lilly faces competitive pressure from rivals like Novo Nordisk, and the post-marketing trial requirements may impact its marketing strategies and sales expectations, especially in ensuring drug safety compliance.
See More
FDA Reviews Compounding Pharmacies for Peptide Manufacturing
- Peptide Drug Review: The FDA convened an independent advisory group to discuss allowing compounding pharmacies to manufacture specific peptides, which were removed from the list of drugs permitted for compounding in 2023, indicating a potential shift in regulatory policy that could impact market supply.
- Meeting Schedule: The upcoming meetings will focus on seven peptides scheduled for July 23 and 24, while another five will be reviewed at a future meeting before the end of February 2027, highlighting the FDA's ongoing scrutiny of peptide drugs.
- Growing Market Demand: Peptides are gaining attention for their vital roles in biological functions such as collagen formation and inflammation, particularly due to promotion by online influencers, despite limited data on their effectiveness and safety, which may create market opportunities for related companies.
- Policy Advocacy: Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stated in a podcast that he is advocating for the FDA to reverse restrictions on peptides, emphasizing his personal positive experiences with their use, which could influence public acceptance and demand for peptide products.
See More
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- Market Value Comparison: Three years ago, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk had similar market values, but Eli Lilly surpassed $1 trillion last year, despite recent momentum loss, indicating its strong market performance and competitive edge.
- Product Competitive Advantage: Eli Lilly's Zepbound demonstrated an average weight loss of 20.2% in clinical trials against Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which achieved only 13.7%, allowing Eli Lilly to lead the anti-obesity market and likely maintain this advantage going forward.
- Pipeline Potential: Eli Lilly's retatrutide showed an impressive 28.7% mean weight loss in a 68-week phase 3 study while alleviating knee pain, further solidifying its leadership in the weight loss drug market.
- Future Growth Outlook: Although Novo Nordisk faced setbacks in clinical trials, its robust pipeline still holds promise, and with a forward P/E of 11.2, it presents an attractive valuation that could yield significant returns for investors.
See More
Competitive Analysis of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk
- Market Leadership: Eli Lilly's Zepbound demonstrated an average weight loss of 20.2% over 72 weeks in clinical trials, significantly outperforming Novo Nordisk's Wegovy at 13.7%, establishing Eli Lilly as the leader in the anti-obesity market with expectations to maintain this advantage.
- Pipeline Strength: Eli Lilly's retatrutide showed an impressive 28.7% weight loss in a 68-week phase 3 study and is expected to gain approval in the coming years, further solidifying its leadership in the weight loss drug market and driving strong financial performance.
- Challenges for Novo Nordisk: Novo Nordisk's CagriSema underperformed in phase 3 studies and failed to surpass Zepbound, with its anti-obesity drug portfolio lagging behind Eli Lilly's, potentially impacting its market share and future growth prospects.
- Valuation Appeal: Despite Novo Nordisk's robust pipeline in anti-obesity drugs, its forward P/E ratio of 11.2 is below the healthcare sector average of 17.2, presenting a relatively attractive buying opportunity for investors, especially if upcoming new products can enhance sales and profits.
See More
Market Crash Risks and Investment Strategies
- Market Crash Risks: Despite the S&P 500's 2% rise this year, investors should remain cautious of potential market crashes due to high valuations and economic uncertainty, particularly if the war in Iran continues to escalate inflation.
- ExxonMobil as a Safe Investment: ExxonMobil's stock surged over 80% in 2022 due to rising oil prices, currently priced at $148.47 with a market cap of $622 billion and a 2.71% dividend yield, making it a safe haven during market turmoil.
- Eli Lilly's Growth Potential: Eli Lilly's stock rose 32% in 2022 following the success of its GLP-1 drugs, currently priced at $899.50 with a market cap of $872 billion; despite a 14% drop this year, the approval of its weight-loss drug Foundayo could serve as a significant growth catalyst.
- Berkshire Hathaway's Stability: During market downturns, Berkshire Hathaway's stock is favored for its low beta of 0.70, currently priced at $474.82 with a market cap of $1 trillion; although down 5% this year, its value investing approach continues to attract safety-seeking investors.
See More
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- Market Resilience: ExxonMobil's stock surged over 80% during the S&P 500's 19% decline in 2022, demonstrating its safety during market turmoil, particularly as oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel, making it a safe haven for investors.
- Healthcare Growth: Eli Lilly's stock rose 32% in 2022 due to strong demand for its GLP-1 drugs, and the recent approval of the weight-loss pill Foundayo could serve as a significant growth catalyst, despite a 14% decline this year, highlighting its ongoing appeal to investors.
- Value Investment Choice: Berkshire Hathaway saw a modest 3% increase in 2022, and while its stock is down 5% this year, its low beta of 0.70 indicates it does not move in sync with the market, making it attractive for investors seeking stability amid rising market uncertainties.
- Risk Management in Portfolios: Given high valuations and increasing economic uncertainty, investors can mitigate overall portfolio risk by holding strong stocks like ExxonMobil, Eli Lilly, and Berkshire Hathaway, enhancing their portfolio's resilience against potential downturns.
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