Harley-Davidson Faces Long Road to Recovery Amidst Challenges
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 11 2026
0mins
Should l Buy HOG?
Source: seekingalpha
- Persistent Underperformance: Harley-Davidson (HOG) shares have lost 52% of their value over the past three years, contrasting sharply with a 75% gain for the S&P 500, indicating a critical need for strategic adjustments to regain growth momentum.
- Frequent Management Changes: Analysts highlight that HOG has seen three CEOs in the past decade, failing to adapt to changing consumer tastes, which has resulted in prolonged performance pressure and a lack of clear earnings visibility.
- Challenging Dealer Relationships: The company's 1,200 Harley-specific dealers have struggled to engage riders effectively, with former CEO management leading to deteriorating dealer economics, poor inventory control, and declining retail sales, indicating that relationship repair will take considerable time.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: While new CEO Artie Starr's initial steps are viewed as “positive,” earnings visibility remains low until a new plan is developed, leading analysts to adopt a cautious stance with an Underweight rating and a $15 price target, suggesting a 17% downside risk.
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Analyst Views on HOG
Wall Street analysts forecast HOG stock price to rise
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 19.440
Low
32.00
Averages
32.67
High
34.00
Current: 19.440
Low
32.00
Averages
32.67
High
34.00
About HOG
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Company operates through three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). The HDMC segment designs, manufactures and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles. The HDMC segment also sells motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel as well as licenses its trademarks. The HDMC segment conducts business on a global basis, with sales in the United States, Canada, Europe/Middle East/Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, electric balance bikes for kids, parts and accessories and apparel in the United States and certain international markets. The HDFS segment is engaged in the business of financing and servicing wholesale inventory receivables and retail consumer loans, primarily for the purchase of Harley-Davidson and LiveWire motorcycles.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Harley-Davidson Executive Sells Shares Amid Declining Stock Prices
- Executive Sell-Off: Charles Do, Senior Vice President of Financial Services at Harley-Davidson, sold 4,241 shares on March 12, 2026, for approximately $77,000, reducing his direct ownership from 4,424 shares to 183 shares, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Stock Performance Analysis: At the time of the transaction, Harley-Davidson's stock was priced at $18.09 per share, closing at $17.97 on the same day, reflecting a 25.75% decline over the past year, highlighting the severe market challenges and performance pressures the company faces.
- Ownership Structure Change: This sale reduced Do's direct ownership to just 0.0002% of outstanding shares, indicating a significant decrease in his equity exposure, which may affect his influence on company decisions moving forward.
- Market Outlook Challenges: Harley-Davidson has experienced a 28% drop in revenue over the past year, with management forecasting a consolidated operating loss in 2026, raising concerns about the company's future growth prospects as its core customer base ages and struggles to attract younger consumers.
See More
Harley Executive Sells Shares Amid Ongoing Struggles
- Executive Share Sale: Charles Do, Senior Vice President at Harley-Davidson, sold 4,241 shares on March 12, 2026, for approximately $77,000 at around $18.09 per share, reducing his direct holdings to 183 shares, indicating executive concerns about the company's future prospects.
- Declining Sales Performance: Harley-Davidson has faced declining sales, with a 28% revenue drop in Q4, and management is guiding for a consolidated operating loss in 2026, reflecting a weakening competitive position in the market.
- Stock Price Weakness: The stock price has hovered between $17 and $19, significantly below the 52-week high of $31.25, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 sell-off, suggesting a lack of investor confidence in the company's future.
- Increasing Market Challenges: The core customer base is aging and shrinking, and the company struggles to attract younger consumers, compounded by pricing strategies that make its products more expensive than competitors, creating uncertainty for future recovery.
See More
Harley-Davidson Director Sells Shares Amid Turnaround Efforts
- Director Share Sale: On February 25, 2026, Harley-Davidson board member James D. Farley, Jr. sold 6,454 shares of common stock valued at approximately $121,000, indicating potential concerns about the company's future and possibly affecting investor sentiment.
- Holding Proportion Change: This transaction reduced Farley's direct holdings from 22,659 shares to 16,205 shares, accounting for 28.48% of his position, which may raise questions in the market regarding his outlook on the company's prospects.
- Company Financials: Harley-Davidson's latest financial report shows a trailing twelve-month revenue of $4.47 billion and a net income of $338.74 million, with a dividend yield of 4.31%; however, the stock price has dropped 29.67% over the past year, reflecting market concerns about its profitability.
- Strategic Reset Plan: New CEO Artie Starrs is set to unveil the “WireForward” strategy aimed at balancing the legacy premium brand with new product categories to attract younger consumers, with details expected in May, prompting investors to monitor whether this transformation can effectively drive the company's recovery.
See More
Harley-Davidson Director Sells Shares
- Share Sale Details: On February 25, 2026, Harley-Davidson director James D. Farley, Jr. sold 6,454 shares of common stock valued at approximately $121,000, at a weighted average price of around $18.71 per share, reducing his direct ownership to 16,205 shares, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Ownership Change: This transaction represented 28.48% of Farley's direct holdings, decreasing from 22,659 shares, reflecting concerns about the company's current operational status, which may impact investor confidence in Harley-Davidson.
- Financial Performance: Harley-Davidson's motorcycle revenue has declined from $4.89 billion in 2022 to approximately $3.6 billion in 2025, highlighting the pressures the company faces amid market competition and economic uncertainty, potentially leading to further layoffs and strategic shifts.
- Strategic Reset Plan: New CEO Artie Starrs is set to unveil the “WireForward” strategy aimed at balancing the legacy brand with new product categories to attract younger consumers, with details expected in May, which, if successful, could help the company return to growth.
See More
Major Averages Decline Amid Oil Price Volatility
- Market Impact from Oil Prices: The major averages, including the Dow, fell over 400 points as oil prices surged above $100 earlier in the week, reflecting traders' concerns over volatile energy prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- IEA's Strategic Release: The International Energy Agency's decision to release approximately 400 million barrels from strategic reserves aims to stabilize energy markets following supply shocks due to conflicts, which could help mitigate extreme oil price fluctuations.
- Inflation Data Reaction: Recent inflation data showed a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the consumer price index and a 2.4% year-over-year rise, both aligning with consensus expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that may influence future monetary policy decisions.
- Escalating Geopolitical Risks: U.S. forces sunk several Iranian ships near the Strait of Hormuz, heightening the fragility of global energy supply routes and contributing to unstable market sentiment, prompting investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding future market movements.
See More
Harley-Davidson Faces Long Road to Recovery Amidst Challenges
- Persistent Underperformance: Harley-Davidson (HOG) shares have lost 52% of their value over the past three years, contrasting sharply with a 75% gain for the S&P 500, indicating a critical need for strategic adjustments to regain growth momentum.
- Frequent Management Changes: Analysts highlight that HOG has seen three CEOs in the past decade, failing to adapt to changing consumer tastes, which has resulted in prolonged performance pressure and a lack of clear earnings visibility.
- Challenging Dealer Relationships: The company's 1,200 Harley-specific dealers have struggled to engage riders effectively, with former CEO management leading to deteriorating dealer economics, poor inventory control, and declining retail sales, indicating that relationship repair will take considerable time.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: While new CEO Artie Starr's initial steps are viewed as “positive,” earnings visibility remains low until a new plan is developed, leading analysts to adopt a cautious stance with an Underweight rating and a $15 price target, suggesting a 17% downside risk.
See More
Harley-Davidson Executive Sells Shares Amid Declining Stock Prices
- Executive Sell-Off: Charles Do, Senior Vice President of Financial Services at Harley-Davidson, sold 4,241 shares on March 12, 2026, for approximately $77,000, reducing his direct ownership from 4,424 shares to 183 shares, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Stock Performance Analysis: At the time of the transaction, Harley-Davidson's stock was priced at $18.09 per share, closing at $17.97 on the same day, reflecting a 25.75% decline over the past year, highlighting the severe market challenges and performance pressures the company faces.
- Ownership Structure Change: This sale reduced Do's direct ownership to just 0.0002% of outstanding shares, indicating a significant decrease in his equity exposure, which may affect his influence on company decisions moving forward.
- Market Outlook Challenges: Harley-Davidson has experienced a 28% drop in revenue over the past year, with management forecasting a consolidated operating loss in 2026, raising concerns about the company's future growth prospects as its core customer base ages and struggles to attract younger consumers.
See More
Harley Executive Sells Shares Amid Ongoing Struggles
- Executive Share Sale: Charles Do, Senior Vice President at Harley-Davidson, sold 4,241 shares on March 12, 2026, for approximately $77,000 at around $18.09 per share, reducing his direct holdings to 183 shares, indicating executive concerns about the company's future prospects.
- Declining Sales Performance: Harley-Davidson has faced declining sales, with a 28% revenue drop in Q4, and management is guiding for a consolidated operating loss in 2026, reflecting a weakening competitive position in the market.
- Stock Price Weakness: The stock price has hovered between $17 and $19, significantly below the 52-week high of $31.25, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 sell-off, suggesting a lack of investor confidence in the company's future.
- Increasing Market Challenges: The core customer base is aging and shrinking, and the company struggles to attract younger consumers, compounded by pricing strategies that make its products more expensive than competitors, creating uncertainty for future recovery.
See More
Harley-Davidson Director Sells Shares Amid Turnaround Efforts
- Director Share Sale: On February 25, 2026, Harley-Davidson board member James D. Farley, Jr. sold 6,454 shares of common stock valued at approximately $121,000, indicating potential concerns about the company's future and possibly affecting investor sentiment.
- Holding Proportion Change: This transaction reduced Farley's direct holdings from 22,659 shares to 16,205 shares, accounting for 28.48% of his position, which may raise questions in the market regarding his outlook on the company's prospects.
- Company Financials: Harley-Davidson's latest financial report shows a trailing twelve-month revenue of $4.47 billion and a net income of $338.74 million, with a dividend yield of 4.31%; however, the stock price has dropped 29.67% over the past year, reflecting market concerns about its profitability.
- Strategic Reset Plan: New CEO Artie Starrs is set to unveil the “WireForward” strategy aimed at balancing the legacy premium brand with new product categories to attract younger consumers, with details expected in May, prompting investors to monitor whether this transformation can effectively drive the company's recovery.
See More
Harley-Davidson Director Sells Shares
- Share Sale Details: On February 25, 2026, Harley-Davidson director James D. Farley, Jr. sold 6,454 shares of common stock valued at approximately $121,000, at a weighted average price of around $18.71 per share, reducing his direct ownership to 16,205 shares, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects.
- Ownership Change: This transaction represented 28.48% of Farley's direct holdings, decreasing from 22,659 shares, reflecting concerns about the company's current operational status, which may impact investor confidence in Harley-Davidson.
- Financial Performance: Harley-Davidson's motorcycle revenue has declined from $4.89 billion in 2022 to approximately $3.6 billion in 2025, highlighting the pressures the company faces amid market competition and economic uncertainty, potentially leading to further layoffs and strategic shifts.
- Strategic Reset Plan: New CEO Artie Starrs is set to unveil the “WireForward” strategy aimed at balancing the legacy brand with new product categories to attract younger consumers, with details expected in May, which, if successful, could help the company return to growth.
See More
Major Averages Decline Amid Oil Price Volatility
- Market Impact from Oil Prices: The major averages, including the Dow, fell over 400 points as oil prices surged above $100 earlier in the week, reflecting traders' concerns over volatile energy prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- IEA's Strategic Release: The International Energy Agency's decision to release approximately 400 million barrels from strategic reserves aims to stabilize energy markets following supply shocks due to conflicts, which could help mitigate extreme oil price fluctuations.
- Inflation Data Reaction: Recent inflation data showed a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the consumer price index and a 2.4% year-over-year rise, both aligning with consensus expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that may influence future monetary policy decisions.
- Escalating Geopolitical Risks: U.S. forces sunk several Iranian ships near the Strait of Hormuz, heightening the fragility of global energy supply routes and contributing to unstable market sentiment, prompting investors to adopt a cautious stance regarding future market movements.
See More
Harley-Davidson Faces Long Road to Recovery Amidst Challenges
- Persistent Underperformance: Harley-Davidson (HOG) shares have lost 52% of their value over the past three years, contrasting sharply with a 75% gain for the S&P 500, indicating a critical need for strategic adjustments to regain growth momentum.
- Frequent Management Changes: Analysts highlight that HOG has seen three CEOs in the past decade, failing to adapt to changing consumer tastes, which has resulted in prolonged performance pressure and a lack of clear earnings visibility.
- Challenging Dealer Relationships: The company's 1,200 Harley-specific dealers have struggled to engage riders effectively, with former CEO management leading to deteriorating dealer economics, poor inventory control, and declining retail sales, indicating that relationship repair will take considerable time.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: While new CEO Artie Starr's initial steps are viewed as “positive,” earnings visibility remains low until a new plan is developed, leading analysts to adopt a cautious stance with an Underweight rating and a $15 price target, suggesting a 17% downside risk.
See More
