Should I Buy HOG? HOG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

19.710

1 Day change

-0.86%

52 Week Range

31.250

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/29

HOG is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. The stock is in a clear downtrend (bearish moving averages) and is sitting near support with weak near-term probability skew (-4.23% next week). With no proprietary buy signals and earnings coming up, the risk/reward today is not attractive. I would HOLD/avoid initiating a new position at this moment.

Technical Analysis

Trend/price action: Bearish trend confirmed by moving averages (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). Price ~19.85 is below the pivot (20.548), implying sellers still control the tape. Momentum: RSI(6)=30.4 (weak/near-oversold), which can support a bounce, but it’s not a confirmed reversal signal by itself. MACD histogram slightly above 0 but positively contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than strengthening. Key levels: Immediate support S1=19.905 (price is essentially at/just below it) then S2=19.507. Resistance is pivot 20.548, then R1=21.192. Near-term pattern odds: Similar-pattern model suggests downside bias (-2.06% next day, -4.23% next week) with only a modest +1.69% one-month expectation. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment read: Open interest put-call ratio ~0.98 is roughly balanced (no strong bullish or bearish crowding). Volume put-call ratio ~0.79 is mildly call-leaning (slightly more bullish trading flow). Volatility: 30D IV ~41.5 vs historical vol ~31.7 suggests options are pricing elevated uncertainty (consistent with an upcoming earnings catalyst). Today’s options volume is well below its recent averages, so the signal strength from flows is moderate.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Event catalyst: Upcoming earnings/results call (announced for Feb 10, 2026; calendar also shows early Feb pre-market). If guidance/inventory actions under the new CEO show traction, the stock can rebound from depressed levels.
- Fundamentals (latest reported quarter): 2025/Q3 showed strong YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS, which can support a longer-term re-rating if sustained.
- Options positioning is not heavily bearish (put/call OI near neutral; volume mildly bullish).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical downtrend remains intact (bearish MA stack), so buying now means fighting the trend.
- Near-term statistical outlook is negative (model implies higher odds of further declines over the next day/week).
- Earnings risk is near-term and options imply elevated uncertainty; the calendar indicates a negative EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter, which can pressure sentiment.
- Analyst actions have recently skewed cautious with notable price-target cuts (including a sub-market target from Morgan Stanley).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $1.3407B (+16.51% YoY). Net income rose to $377.4M (+217.01% YoY) and EPS increased to $3.10 (+240.66% YoY). The key blemish is profitability quality: gross margin fell to 34.77% (-8.57% YoY), suggesting cost/mix/discounting pressures even as headline earnings surged.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Net cautious/defensive. Morgan Stanley (2026-01-16) cut PT to $18 from $21 and stayed Underweight. Loop initiated Hold with $21. UBS trimmed PT to $27 and stayed Neutral. DA Davidson cut PT to $30 from $34 but kept Buy. Wall Street pros: Inventory reduction efforts under the new CEO and signs of improving U.S. retail demand (bull case from DA Davidson), plus prior quarter’s strong YoY earnings. Wall Street cons: Macro/leisure demand described as muted and expectation of “more of the same” fundamentals (Morgan Stanley), plus multiple price-target reductions signaling lowered conviction.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HOG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HOG is 32.67 USD with a low forecast of 32 USD and a high forecast of 34 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 19.880

Low

Averages

32.67

High

Current: 19.880

Low

Averages

32.67

High

Morgan Stanley

Underweight

downgrade

$21 -> $18

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$21 -> $18

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

downgrade

Underweight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Harley-Davidson to $18 from $21 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. Gaming, lodging and leisure fundamentals were "muted" in 2025, with select areas of acceleration skewed to companies serving older, wealthier consumers, the analyst tells investors in a 2026 look ahead note on the group. For 2026, the firm expects "more of the same fundamentally," with the added wrinkle of rates boosting goods over services, the analyst added.

Loop Capital

Hold

initiated

$21

2025-11-25

Reason

Loop Capital

Price Target

$21

2025-11-25

initiated

Hold

Reason

Loop Capital initiated coverage of Harley-Davidson with a Hold rating and $21 price target.

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HOG Should I Buy

HOG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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