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  4. Forecast

Stock Price Prediction

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HOG
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HOG Price Prediction Next Week

Technical Analysis

HOG is currently trading at $28.39, showing a bearish trend with RSI at 37.91 indicating oversold conditions. The stock is trading below both its 20-day moving average of $29.34 and 200-day moving average of $34.25, suggesting sustained downward pressure.

News Impact

Recent significant developments affecting HOG:

  1. Morgan Stanley downgraded Harley-Davidson to "Equal-Weight" due to affordability concerns and limited upside potential. The powersports sector has underperformed the broader market by 53% in 2024.

  2. The company unveiled its 2025 motorcycle lineup featuring new models like Street Glide Ultra and Pan America 1250 ST, but market reaction has been muted.

Price Targets & Support/Resistance Levels

Based on Fibonacci levels:

  • Resistance 1: $29.69
  • Resistance 2: $30.31
  • Support 1: $27.70
  • Support 2: $27.08

Next Week's Price Prediction

Given the technical indicators and recent news:

  • Bearish scenario (70% probability): Stock likely to test support level at $27.70, potentially breaking down to $27.08
  • Neutral scenario (20% probability): Consolidation between $28.00-$29.00
  • Bullish scenario (10% probability): Bounce from oversold conditions to resistance at $29.69

Trading Recommendation

SELL with target price of $27.70 for next week. Key reasons:

  1. Negative technical momentum with price below key moving averages
  2. Morgan Stanley downgrade impacting sentiment
  3. High inventory levels and affordability challenges persist
  4. RSI shows oversold conditions but downward trend remains strong

Set stop loss at $29.69 (Fibonacci R1) to manage risk.

Technical Analysis

HOG is currently trading at $28.39, showing a bearish trend with RSI at 37.91 indicating oversold conditions. The stock is trading below both its 20-day moving average of $29.34 and 200-day moving average of $34.25, suggesting sustained downward pressure.

News Impact

Recent significant developments affecting HOG:

  1. Morgan Stanley downgraded Harley-Davidson to "Equal-Weight" due to affordability concerns and limited upside potential. The powersports sector has underperformed the broader market by 53% in 2024.

  2. The company unveiled its 2025 motorcycle lineup featuring new models like Street Glide Ultra and Pan America 1250 ST, but market reaction has been muted.

Price Targets & Support/Resistance Levels

Based on Fibonacci levels:

  • Resistance 1: $29.69
  • Resistance 2: $30.31
  • Support 1: $27.70
  • Support 2: $27.08

Next Week's Price Prediction

Given the technical indicators and recent news:

  • Bearish scenario (70% probability): Stock likely to test support level at $27.70, potentially breaking down to $27.08
  • Neutral scenario (20% probability): Consolidation between $28.00-$29.00
  • Bullish scenario (10% probability): Bounce from oversold conditions to resistance at $29.69

Trading Recommendation

SELL with target price of $27.70 for next week. Key reasons:

  1. Negative technical momentum with price below key moving averages
  2. Morgan Stanley downgrade impacting sentiment
  3. High inventory levels and affordability challenges persist
  4. RSI shows oversold conditions but downward trend remains strong

Set stop loss at $29.69 (Fibonacci R1) to manage risk.

HOG Similar Chart Price Prediction

The price of HOG is predicted to go up 5.86%, based on the high correlation periods with DRIO. The similarity of these two price pattern on the periods is 97.68%.

stocks logo

HOG

stocks logo

DRIO

Up: 5.86%Similarity: 97.68%

HOG Stock Forecast & Prediction For Years 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030

Year

HOG Price Forecast($)

Potential Return(%)

2025

35.000

25.900

2026

35.000

25.900

2027

35.000

25.900

2028

35.000

25.900

2029

43.000

54.680

2030

35.000

25.900

What is HOG stock price prediction 2025 ?

HOG's stock price is predicted to reach $35 by the end of 2025, driven by potential recovery in consumer spending as interest rates decline. The company's focus on premium segments like Touring and CVO motorcycles, coupled with cost-cutting initiatives, positions it for moderate growth. However, challenges such as declining global sales and competition from brands like Indian Motorcycles may limit upside potential.

What is HOG stock price prediction 2026 ?

HOG stock is predicted to reach approximately $35-$38 by 2026. This projection is based on moderate revenue growth (3.5% CAGR) and potential margin improvements if interest rates decline, boosting consumer affordability. However, challenges like declining global motorcycle sales and competition from brands like Indian may limit upside potential.

What is HOG stock price prediction 2027 ?

HOG's stock price in 2027 is projected to be approximately $35-$40. This estimate is based on a modest annual revenue growth rate of 3.5%, improving macroeconomic conditions, and potential easing of interest rates, which could boost consumer demand for motorcycles. However, challenges like demographic shifts and competition from brands like Indian Motorcycles may limit upside potential.

What is HOG stock price prediction 2028 ?

HOG's stock price in 2028 is projected to be around $35-$40, assuming a modest annual growth rate of 3%-4% in revenue and stable EBITDA margins. This estimate reflects Harley-Davidson's strong brand but limited growth potential due to challenges in attracting younger customers and macroeconomic pressures. A potential decline in interest rates and improved consumer sentiment could act as catalysts for moderate price appreciation.

What is HOG stock price prediction 2029 ?

HOG stock price in 2029 is projected to be approximately $43 per share. This estimate is based on a conservative annual revenue growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a forecasted enterprise value of $13.36 billion by 2029, supported by stable EBITDA margins and moderate market recovery. However, challenges like demographic shifts and competition may limit upside potential.

What is HOG stock price prediction 2030 ?

HOG stock is projected to reach approximately $35-$40 by 2030, assuming a modest annual growth rate of 3-4% in revenue and stable margins, driven by its premium motorcycle segments and potential recovery in consumer spending. The company's challenges in attracting younger demographics and reliance on high-income customers may limit upside potential. However, strategic innovations and easing interest rates could provide moderate support to its valuation.

HOG Revenue Forecast

HOG EPS Forecast

HOG FAQs

What is bull‘s view on HOG?

HOG stock is currently trading at $27.80, down 3.77% in regular trading today. Analysts have mixed views: UBS and Citigroup recently lowered their price targets to $35 and $34, respectively, citing inventory concerns and declining retail sales, while BofA maintains a bullish $45 target, supported by strong performance in premium segments like Touring. Despite challenges, bulls argue that easing interest rates and Harley's focus on affluent customers could drive recovery toward $35-$40 in 2025.

What is bear's view on HOG?

HOG stock is currently trading around $33, with bearish sentiment driven by declining global motorcycle sales (-13% in Q3 2024) and high inventory levels, which signal weak demand. Analysts have lowered price targets, with Citigroup revising it to $34, citing concerns over bold margin targets and persistent retail sales declines. Despite potential upside from interest rate cuts, the stock's near-term outlook remains pressured by macroeconomic challenges and limited growth catalysts.

What is HOG revenue forecast for next quarter？

The market consensus for HOG's revenue in the upcoming quarter is projected to be approximately $1.364B USD.

What is HOG eps forecast for next quarter？

The market consensus for HOG's eps in the upcoming quarter is projected to be approximately $1.527 USD.

HOG VS S&P500

Harley-Davidson's brand is more than 120 years old and resonates globally with a wide consumer base, particularly its core market (men over 35). Efforts to reconnect with its core consumer could lead to a unit demand uptick faster than we anticipate.

The firm has historically generated solid free cash flow, and we expect it to continue doing so, generating a low-double-digit average FCF yield over the next decade.

Harley has high brand awareness and robust market share in custom and touring segments domestically, two of the most profitable motorcycle categories.

Ask Intellectia about HOG

HOG Analyst's Forecast

James Hardiman

Citigroup

Hold

Price Target

$34 → $31

Upside

+7.9%

Citi lowered the firm's price target on Harley-Davidson to $31 from $34 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm sees "poor" momentum and a difficult backdrop into 2025 for the company. It is difficult to digest the double-digit retail decline to finish the year, the sequential deterioration of dealer comfort with current levels of retail inventory, and the apparent build-up in weeks-on-hand inventory, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi believes Harley-Davidson also faces difficult innovation comparisons, with a lack of a game-changing product slated for MY25 relative to the long-awaited revamp in MY24.
Adam Jonas

Morgan Stanley

Buy → Hold

Price Target

$40 → $33

Upside

+14.42%

James Hardiman

Citigroup

Hold

Price Target

$39 → $34

Upside

+6.75%

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