HOG Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how HOG performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, HOG sees a -2.20% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.53% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.99%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
HOG Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.15B
-25.72%
-28.92%
Gross Margin
38.03%
3.06%
2.42%
Operating Margin
9.19%
-31.98%
-38.28%
Net Margin
10.08%
-20.38%
-24.27%
EPS
0.91
-34.06%
-44.17%
No Data Available
HOG Earnings Analysis
Harley-Davidson, Inc. Corporation (HOG.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Domestic Sales Surge: In Q3, Harley-Davidson saw a 10% increase in retail sales of new motorcycles in the U.S. compared to a 13% decline globally, indicating strong performance in the domestic market.
Touring Segment Performance: The touring segment was up almost 10%, gaining more than four percentage points of market share, outperforming other segments and the market as a whole.
Revenue Increase Drivers: Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) reported a 10% increase in revenue, driven by higher retail and commercial finance receivables, as well as higher average yields.
Dealer Inventory Reduction: The company achieved a reduction in dealer inventory levels by 13% relative to the end of Q2, supporting a healthier supply chain and improved dealer profitability.
Operating Cash Flow Increase: Harley-Davidson's operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2024 was $931 million, up from $707 million in the same period last year, reflecting improved operational efficiency.
Negative
Global Motorcycle Sales Decline: A 13% decline in global retail sales of new motorcycles for Q3, with North America posting a 10% decline compared to 18% across international regions.
Revenue Decline Analysis: Consolidated revenue in the third quarter was down 26%, driven by H-DMC revenue down 32%.
Operating Income Decline: Consolidated operating income in the third quarter was $106 million, down 49% from the prior year period, reflecting a decrease of $120 million at H-DMC.
Earnings Per Share Decline: Third quarter earnings per share was $0.91, down 34% from $1.38 last year.
Revenue Decline Analysis: Consolidated H-DI revenue of $4.5 billion was down 6% compared to last year.
HOG FAQs
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HOG Earning Call Sentiment
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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HOG.N
0.04%Positive
The earnings call summary indicates declining financial performance, such as reduced revenue and operating margins, alongside weak guidance. Although there are positive aspects like increased cash flow and share buybacks, the overall sentiment from the Q&A section suggests concerns over dealer profitability and inventory management. Additionally, the refusal to provide 2025 guidance and the outlook for 4Q being similar to a weak Q3 further contribute to a negative sentiment. Given the market cap of around $4.5 billion, the stock price is likely to react negatively, falling between -2% to -8%.