Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and market analysis, here's a concise assessment of HOG stock:

Recent Performance and Key Developments

Harley-Davidson has faced significant headwinds recently, with Q4 2024 showing concerning trends:

• Global retail motorcycle sales declined 15%
• North American retail performance down 13%
• Consolidated revenue declined 34.7% to $687.61 million
• Operating loss of $214 million versus $44 million year-over-year

Positive Factors

• Strong market share in Touring segment at 74.5%
• Conservative dividend payout ratio of 20%
• Healthy free cash flow coverage with only 11% payout
• Stable earnings growth of 5.8% over the last five years

Concerning Factors

• Significant weakness in international markets:
  • EMEA down 7%
  • APAC down 26%
  • Latin America down 7%
• Management guidance for FY25 indicates continued pressure:
  • Revenue growth expected to be flat to down 5%
  • Operating margin outlook of 7.0%-8.0%

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst ratings show mixed views:

• KeyBanc maintains Hold rating
• D.A. Davidson maintains Buy rating
• Citi maintains Hold rating

The stock appears to be in oversold territory with an RSI reading of 28.1, which could present a tactical buying opportunity for contrarian investors. However, the fundamental challenges and weak guidance suggest continued pressure in the near term.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's the price prediction for Harley-Davidson (HOG) stock in 2025:

HOG stock is expected to trade between $31-35 by end of 2025, representing potential upside of 17-32% from current levels around $26.50. This projection is based on several key factors:

Positive Drivers:

• New product launches including successful Street Glide and Road Glide models drove nearly 5% growth in US Touring segment, pushing market share to 74.5% - highest since 2019
• Strong brand expansion through strategic collaborations and custom-built apparel lines
• LiveWire electric motorcycle unit showing promise with 46% YoY retail sales growth and 65% market share in US 50+ HP road EV segment

Headwinds:

• Management expects flat to -5% revenue growth in 2025 with operating margins of 7-8%
• Harley-Davidson Financial Services projects 10-15% drop in operating income due to higher borrowing costs
• Global inventory levels expected to drop over 10% in 2025, with 30% reduction in first half

Key Support:

• Currently trading at attractive valuation of 0.79x forward P/S vs sector average of 1.48x
• Strong dividend coverage with only 20% payout ratio and 11% of free cash flow
• Healthy balance sheet with $1.16 billion cash at year-end

The stock appears undervalued at current levels but faces near-term headwinds from inventory destocking and margin pressure. The successful new product launches and electric vehicle growth provide support for gradual recovery through 2025.

The S1 support level for HOG Stock is $24.31 ,The R1 resistant level for HOG Stock is $26.8.

As of the end of day on 2025-03-06, the price of HOG Stock was $25.21.

The target price for HOG Stock according to analyst rating is 30.13, with the highest price target at 35.00 and the lowest at 20.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on HOG Stock overall.

The market cap of HOG is $3.2B.

Based on the provided data and references, I'll analyze whether HOG is overvalued:

Technical Analysis

Valuation Analysis HOG is currently trading at $26.42 with a trailing P/E ratio indicating conservative valuation metrics. The company's dividend payout ratio is only 20% of profits and 11% of free cash flow, suggesting sustainable financial management.

Financial Performance Recent Q4 2024 results show significant challenges:

• Revenue declined 34.7% to $687.61 million
• Operating loss widened to $193.35 million from $21.15 million year-over-year
• Global retail motorcycle sales declined 15%
• North American retail performance down 13%

Market Position Despite sales challenges, HOG maintains strong market position:

• 74.5% market share in U.S. Touring segment in fiscal 2024
• New touring models driving nearly 5% growth in U.S. Touring segment

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst actions suggest caution:

• Multiple analysts have lowered price targets
• Current average price target: $33.50
• Range: $31.00 - $35.00
• Most analysts maintain neutral ratings

Conclusion HOG appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued considering:

• Current trading price significantly below analyst targets
• Conservative payout ratios indicating financial discipline
• Strong market position in core segments
• However, significant operational challenges and revenue declines warrant caution
• Stock currently shows oversold conditions with RSI reading of 28.1

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). HDMC designs, manufactures and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles. HDMC also sells motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel as well as licenses its trademarks. LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, electric balance bikes for kids, parts and accessories and apparel in the United States and certain international markets. HDMC conducts business on a global basis, with sales in the United States, Canada, Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA), Asia Pacific, and Latin America. HDMC's products are sold to retail customers primarily through a network of independent dealers. HDMC also distributes its motorcycles through an independent distributor in India. HDMC offers internal combustion engine motorcycles under the Harley-Davidson brand.

Based on the provided data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for Harley-Davidson (HOG) stock by 2030:

HOG stock is projected to reach $35-40 by 2030, driven by the company's electric motorcycle expansion through LiveWire and strategic product portfolio diversification. The prediction factors in HOG's current challenges with declining sales volumes and profit margins, but considers its strong market leadership position with 75% share in the touring segment and successful launch of new models.

The projection is supported by HOG's strategic focus on expanding its electric motorcycle segment LiveWire, which saw 46% year-over-year retail sales growth in 2024 and maintains 65% market share in the US 50+ horsepower road EV segment.

HOG has a total of 6400 employees.