Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's my analysis of HOG stock:
Technical Analysis
The stock is showing significant weakness, trading at $26.82 with an RSI of 35.03 indicating oversold conditions. The stock has broken below key support levels and is trading well below its recent highs.
Fundamental Challenges
- Q4 2024 showed concerning results with North American retail sales down 13% and revenues dropping 35% year-over-year
- Annual income declined 47% in 2024, reflecting significant operational challenges
- The company faces ongoing issues attracting younger riders and declining demand in key markets
Recent Analyst Actions
Multiple analysts have recently lowered their price targets:
- Citigroup: Lowered to $29 from $31 (Feb 6, 2025)
- Morgan Stanley: Lowered to $31 from $33 (Feb 6, 2025)
- DA Davidson: Lowered to $31 from $39 (Feb 4, 2025)
Additional Headwinds
- Trade war concerns with China could further impact HOG, as identified by UBS analysts
- High interest rates affecting consumer confidence and discretionary purchases
- Inventory destocking expected in first half of 2025
2025 Outlook
Management expects:
- Flat to 5% lower revenue
- Operating income margin between 7.0-8.0%
- EPS projected to be flat to down 5%
Based on the technical weakness, fundamental challenges, and multiple headwinds, selling HOG stock appears to be the more prudent action at current levels.