Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's a concise analysis of HOG stock:

Technical Analysis The stock is currently trading at $29.04, showing a -2.02% decline in the last session. The RSI(14) at 40.07 indicates a neutral to slightly oversold condition, while the MACD at -0.83 suggests bearish momentum. The price is currently below its 20-day moving average of $29.74, indicating short-term weakness.

Recent Developments

• Harley-Davidson will release Q4 and year-end 2024 results on February 5, 2025
• The company faces potential trade challenges with Trump's tariff threats affecting European markets
• Options market data shows mixed sentiment with put contracts at $29 strike having a 55% chance of expiring worthless

Analyst Perspective Recent analyst actions show cautious sentiment:

• UBS maintained Hold rating with PT lowered to $35 (Nov 2024)
• Citigroup maintained Hold rating with PT lowered to $34 (Oct 2024), citing concerns about high inventory levels and margin targets

Recommendation Based on technical indicators and current market conditions, HOG stock appears to be in a bearish trend with near-term support at $27.78 (Fibonacci S1). Selling pressure could continue ahead of earnings announcement.

Based on the provided data and context, here's my analysis for HOG stock price prediction in 2025:

Price Target Analysis:

HOG stock is expected to reach $35-40 by end of 2025, representing a potential upside of 20-38% from current price of $29.04, driven by three key factors:

Key Drivers:

1. Premium segment strength continues to drive growth despite overall market challenges, with Touring and CVO segments showing strong performance in high-income customer base.

2. Interest rate cuts expected to improve consumer financing and boost sales in 2025, with Fed already cutting rates to 4.5% which should help motorcycle financing become more affordable.

3. Strong financial services segment performance with 10% YoY revenue growth and commercial financing up 18% to $1.2B demonstrates resilient business model.

Risk Factors:

The main risk is continued weakness in retail motorcycle sales, which declined 13% globally in recent quarters. However, this is expected to improve as interest rates decline through 2025.

The S1 support level for HOG Stock is $27.7 ,The R1 resistant level for HOG Stock is $29.69.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of HOG Stock was $28.39.

The target price for HOG Stock according to analyst rating is 38.00, with the highest price target at 42.00 and the lowest at 34.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on HOG Stock overall.

The market cap of HOG is $3.6B.

Based on the provided data, I'll analyze whether HOG is overvalued through multiple aspects:

Valuation Metrics HOG's current valuation shows a P/E of 8.58x, EV/EBITDA of 14.09x, and P/S of 0.94x in Q3 2024. These multiples are relatively low compared to historical levels, suggesting the stock is not overvalued from a pure multiple perspective.

Financial Performance The company's Q3 2024 performance shows concerning trends:

• Revenue declined to $1.15B from $1.62B in Q2
• Net income dropped to $119M from $218M
• Net margin decreased to 10.08% from 13.31%
• ROE declined to 17.74% from 20.45%

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst actions indicate caution:

• UBS lowered price target to $35 from $40 in November 2024
• Citigroup reduced target to $34 from $39 citing inventory concerns
• Baird downgraded to Hold from Buy in October 2024, noting weak retail trends and excess inventory

Conclusion While traditional valuation metrics suggest HOG isn't overvalued, deteriorating fundamentals and analyst concerns about inventory levels and retail sales declines indicate the stock is fairly valued at current levels.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company of Harley-Davidson Motor Company and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). HDMC designs, manufactures and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles. HDMC also sells motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel as well as licenses its trademarks. LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, electric balance bikes for kids, parts and accessories and apparel in the United States and certain international markets. HDMC conducts business on a global basis, with sales in the United States, Canada, Europe/Middle East/Africa (EMEA), Asia Pacific, and Latin America. HDMC's products are sold to retail customers primarily through a network of independent dealers. HDMC also distributes its motorcycles through an independent distributor in India. HDMC offers internal combustion engine motorcycles under the Harley-Davidson brand.

Based on the provided data and context, here is my analysis for HOG stock price prediction in 2030:

HOG stock is projected to reach $45-48 by 2030, representing a 55-65% upside from current levels around $29, driven by the company's strategic shift towards premium touring motorcycles and potential market recovery as interest rates normalize. The company's strong performance in the touring segment, which saw 10% growth and gained 4% market share in 2024, supports this moderate growth trajectory.

However, significant challenges exist that could limit upside potential. The company faces declining global retail sales (-13% in Q3 2024) and struggles to attract younger riders while maintaining its core 45-65 year old customer base. High interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty also continue to pressure motorcycle demand and margins.

The prediction assumes:

1. Interest rate normalization by 2026-2027 improving motorcycle financing
2. Successful execution of premium touring strategy
3. Moderate but stable growth in core customer segments

This represents a conservative 4-5% CAGR through 2030, accounting for both growth opportunities and structural headwinds in the motorcycle industry.

HOG has a total of 6400 employees.