HOG Relative Valuation
HOG's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, HOG is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.
Historical Valuation
Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) is now in the Overvalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 16.54 is considered Overvalued compared with the five-year average of 9.36. The fair price of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) is between 12.86 to 18.71 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 23.73 USD , Harley-Davidson Inc is Overvalued By 26.84%.
Relative Value
Fair Zone
12.86-18.71
Current Price：23.73
26.84%
Overvalued
16.54
PE
1Y
3Y
5Y
Trailing
Forward
21.59
EV/EBITDA
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) has a current EV/EBITDA of 21.59. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 13.20. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 6.84, Undervalued between 6.84 and 10.02, Fairly Valued between 16.38 and 10.02, Overvalued between 16.38 and 19.56, and Strongly Overvalued above 19.56. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 21.59 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.
49.36
EV/EBIT
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) has a current EV/EBIT of 49.36. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 18.04. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.81, Undervalued between 0.81 and 9.43, Fairly Valued between 26.66 and 9.43, Overvalued between 26.66 and 35.27, and Strongly Overvalued above 35.27. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 49.36 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.
0.76
PS
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) has a current PS of 0.76. The 5-year average PS is 1.10. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.66, Undervalued between 0.66 and 0.88, Fairly Valued between 1.31 and 0.88, Overvalued between 1.31 and 1.53, and Strongly Overvalued above 1.53. The current Forward PS of 0.76 falls within the Undervalued range.
8.74
P/OCF
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) has a current P/OCF of 8.74. The 5-year average P/OCF is 7.01. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.56, Undervalued between 0.56 and 3.79, Fairly Valued between 10.23 and 3.79, Overvalued between 10.23 and 13.46, and Strongly Overvalued above 13.46. The current Forward P/OCF of 8.74 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.
25.34
P/FCF
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) has a current P/FCF of 25.34. The 5-year average P/FCF is 10.71. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -6.88, Undervalued between -6.88 and 1.91, Fairly Valued between 19.50 and 1.91, Overvalued between 19.50 and 28.29, and Strongly Overvalued above 28.29. The current Forward P/FCF of 25.34 falls within the Overvalued range.
Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 0.78. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 1.40 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -44.14% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 1.91, the current P/B ratio is about -59.02% higher. Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 0.00%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 15.00%, the current FCF yield is approximately -100.00% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 14.86% , the current FCF yield is about -100.00% lower.
0.78
P/B
Median3y
1.40
Median5y
1.91
13.58
FCF Yield
Median3y
15.00
Median5y
14.86
Competitors Valuation Multiple
The average P/S ratio for HOG's competitors is , providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Harley-Davidson Inc Corp (HOG) exhibits a P/S ratio of , which is NaN% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 16.51%, this premium appears unsustainable.
P/S
P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
P/S
Revenue Growth
Market Cap
Performance Decomposition
1Y
3Y
5Y
Market capitalization of HOG decreased by 21.24% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in Margin Expansion from 10.08 to 27.98.
The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed 16.51%to the performance.
Overall, the performance of HOG in the past 1 year is driven by Margin Expansion. Which is more sustainable.
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FAQ
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