ETF Outflow Warning: VBK, PTC, SOFI, TOST
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 09 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TOST?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
VBK Share Price Analysis: VBK's share price is currently at $296.01, with a 52-week low of $214.77 and a high of $304.59, indicating a relatively stable position within its trading range.
ETFs Trading Dynamics: Exchange traded funds (ETFs) function like stocks, allowing investors to buy and sell units that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the underlying assets held within the ETFs.
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Analyst Views on TOST
Wall Street analysts forecast TOST stock price to rise
21 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 28.020
Low
36.00
Averages
47.00
High
60.00
Current: 28.020
Low
36.00
Averages
47.00
High
60.00
About TOST
Toast, Inc. is a cloud-based, all-in-one digital technology platform purpose-built for the entire restaurant community. It provides a platform of software-as-a-service (SaaS) products and financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, restaurant-grade hardware, and a broad ecosystem of third-party partners. It serves as the restaurant operating system, connecting front of house and back of house operations across service models including dine-in, takeout, delivery, catering, and retail. Its products include point-of-sale (POS) & restaurant operations, marketing, online ordering & delivery, team management, vendor management, retail, and financial technology solutions. Its in-store POS and restaurant operations offerings are built to help reduce time to take an order, optimize operations, and handle payments. Its marketing products provide integrated solutions to deliver targeted email and SMS campaigns, build loyalty programs, offer gift cards, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Toast, Inc. Reports Record Growth and AI Adoption in Q4 2025 Earnings Call
- Net Location Growth: Toast added over 30,000 net locations in 2025, ending the year with 164,000, indicating robust expansion in the U.S. SMB market where its share has nearly doubled, which is expected to drive further revenue growth.
- Strong Financial Performance: Adjusted EBITDA reached $633 million in 2025, with GAAP operating income soaring from $16 million last year to $292 million, reflecting the company's efficiency in capital allocation and cost management, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- AI-Driven Product Adoption: Within less than four months of launch, ToastIQ has been utilized by over half of all Toast locations, collectively sending over 8 million queries, demonstrating that the company's investment in AI is rapidly translating into customer value and enhancing competitive positioning.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management anticipates 20% to 22% growth in recurring gross profit streams for 2026, despite challenges from rising memory chip costs, maintaining confidence in long-term margin expansion, which underscores the company's strong commitment to future growth.
See More
Toast Shares Decline Over 26% Year-to-Date Amid Mixed Q4 Results
- Earnings Highlights: Toast's Q4 revenue rose 22% to $1.63 billion, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $1.61 billion, although its earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17 fell short of the $0.24 estimate, indicating strong revenue growth but insufficient profitability.
- Market Reaction: Toast's stock closed at $26.14, giving it a market value of $13.5 billion, with shares down over 26% year-to-date, likely heading for its worst annual loss since going public in 2021, reflecting investor concerns about the company's valuation.
- Investment Strategy: The company is heavily investing in new verticals, products, and AI, with plans to achieve adjusted EBITDA of $775 million to $795 million by 2026, demonstrating confidence in future growth prospects.
- User Sentiment Shift: Retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted from 'bullish' to 'extremely bullish', although some users questioned the company's financial reporting, highlighting a divide in market perceptions regarding Toast's future performance.
See More
Toast (TOST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Multiple Companies Shine in After-Hours Trading
- Applied Materials Earnings Beat: California-based semiconductor equipment company Applied Materials reported adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share and revenue of $7.01 billion, both exceeding analyst expectations, leading to an 11% stock price increase that reflects strong market demand and profitability.
- Coinbase Trading Volume Surge: Coinbase announced a total trading volume of $5.2 trillion in 2025, up 156% year-over-year, and despite missing fourth-quarter revenue expectations, its stock rose nearly 2%, indicating robust performance in the crypto market.
- Rivian Delivery Forecast Upgrade: Electric truck manufacturer Rivian expects vehicle deliveries for 2026 to range from 62,000 to 67,000 units, representing a 47% to 59% increase compared to 2025, resulting in a 14% stock price surge that reflects market confidence in its growth potential.
- Airbnb's Upbeat Guidance: Airbnb reported fourth-quarter earnings of $0.56 per share on $2.78 billion in revenue, falling short of analyst expectations, yet the company anticipates full-year revenue growth of at least low double digits, leading to a stock increase of about 2%, showcasing market confidence in its future growth.
See More
Toast Reports Q4 Beat but Stock Declines
- Earnings Beat: Toast reported Q4 revenue of $1.63 billion, surpassing estimates of $1.62 billion, with an EPS of 16 cents exceeding the expected 13 cents, indicating strong performance in its core business.
- Sustained Growth Momentum: As of December 31, 2025, Toast's annualized recurring run-rate (ARR) grew 26% to over $2 billion, showcasing significant progress in market expansion and platform adoption.
- Market Expansion: The total number of locations increased by 22% year-over-year to approximately 164,000, with 30,000 new locations added in 2025, reflecting accelerated growth in new markets and scaling of the core restaurant business.
- Increased Buyback Program: Toast's board authorized a $500 million increase to its previously approved share repurchase program, demonstrating confidence in future growth despite an 8.11% decline in stock price during after-hours trading.
See More
Toast Scheduled to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 12th
- Earnings Announcement Date: Toast is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on February 12th after market close, with consensus EPS estimates at $0.24 and revenue expected to reach $1.62 billion, reflecting a 20.9% year-over-year growth, which will provide crucial insights into the company's financial health.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Toast has not missed EPS estimates, achieving a 0% miss rate, while it has successfully met revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a relatively stable performance that may bolster market confidence in its future results.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced three upward revisions and one downward, suggesting mixed market sentiment regarding Toast's growth prospects, which could influence investor decisions.
- Market Rating Changes: J.P. Morgan has upgraded Toast's rating, citing an optimistic outlook for 2026, particularly as the company shifts from a growth-at-all-costs approach to a focus on disciplined, high-margin scaling, which may attract increased investor interest.
See More
Toast, Inc. Reports Record Growth and AI Adoption in Q4 2025 Earnings Call
- Net Location Growth: Toast added over 30,000 net locations in 2025, ending the year with 164,000, indicating robust expansion in the U.S. SMB market where its share has nearly doubled, which is expected to drive further revenue growth.
- Strong Financial Performance: Adjusted EBITDA reached $633 million in 2025, with GAAP operating income soaring from $16 million last year to $292 million, reflecting the company's efficiency in capital allocation and cost management, thereby boosting investor confidence.
- AI-Driven Product Adoption: Within less than four months of launch, ToastIQ has been utilized by over half of all Toast locations, collectively sending over 8 million queries, demonstrating that the company's investment in AI is rapidly translating into customer value and enhancing competitive positioning.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management anticipates 20% to 22% growth in recurring gross profit streams for 2026, despite challenges from rising memory chip costs, maintaining confidence in long-term margin expansion, which underscores the company's strong commitment to future growth.
See More
Toast Shares Decline Over 26% Year-to-Date Amid Mixed Q4 Results
- Earnings Highlights: Toast's Q4 revenue rose 22% to $1.63 billion, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $1.61 billion, although its earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17 fell short of the $0.24 estimate, indicating strong revenue growth but insufficient profitability.
- Market Reaction: Toast's stock closed at $26.14, giving it a market value of $13.5 billion, with shares down over 26% year-to-date, likely heading for its worst annual loss since going public in 2021, reflecting investor concerns about the company's valuation.
- Investment Strategy: The company is heavily investing in new verticals, products, and AI, with plans to achieve adjusted EBITDA of $775 million to $795 million by 2026, demonstrating confidence in future growth prospects.
- User Sentiment Shift: Retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted from 'bullish' to 'extremely bullish', although some users questioned the company's financial reporting, highlighting a divide in market perceptions regarding Toast's future performance.
See More
Toast (TOST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Multiple Companies Shine in After-Hours Trading
- Applied Materials Earnings Beat: California-based semiconductor equipment company Applied Materials reported adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share and revenue of $7.01 billion, both exceeding analyst expectations, leading to an 11% stock price increase that reflects strong market demand and profitability.
- Coinbase Trading Volume Surge: Coinbase announced a total trading volume of $5.2 trillion in 2025, up 156% year-over-year, and despite missing fourth-quarter revenue expectations, its stock rose nearly 2%, indicating robust performance in the crypto market.
- Rivian Delivery Forecast Upgrade: Electric truck manufacturer Rivian expects vehicle deliveries for 2026 to range from 62,000 to 67,000 units, representing a 47% to 59% increase compared to 2025, resulting in a 14% stock price surge that reflects market confidence in its growth potential.
- Airbnb's Upbeat Guidance: Airbnb reported fourth-quarter earnings of $0.56 per share on $2.78 billion in revenue, falling short of analyst expectations, yet the company anticipates full-year revenue growth of at least low double digits, leading to a stock increase of about 2%, showcasing market confidence in its future growth.
See More
Toast Reports Q4 Beat but Stock Declines
- Earnings Beat: Toast reported Q4 revenue of $1.63 billion, surpassing estimates of $1.62 billion, with an EPS of 16 cents exceeding the expected 13 cents, indicating strong performance in its core business.
- Sustained Growth Momentum: As of December 31, 2025, Toast's annualized recurring run-rate (ARR) grew 26% to over $2 billion, showcasing significant progress in market expansion and platform adoption.
- Market Expansion: The total number of locations increased by 22% year-over-year to approximately 164,000, with 30,000 new locations added in 2025, reflecting accelerated growth in new markets and scaling of the core restaurant business.
- Increased Buyback Program: Toast's board authorized a $500 million increase to its previously approved share repurchase program, demonstrating confidence in future growth despite an 8.11% decline in stock price during after-hours trading.
See More
Toast Scheduled to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 12th
- Earnings Announcement Date: Toast is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings on February 12th after market close, with consensus EPS estimates at $0.24 and revenue expected to reach $1.62 billion, reflecting a 20.9% year-over-year growth, which will provide crucial insights into the company's financial health.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Toast has not missed EPS estimates, achieving a 0% miss rate, while it has successfully met revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a relatively stable performance that may bolster market confidence in its future results.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and two downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced three upward revisions and one downward, suggesting mixed market sentiment regarding Toast's growth prospects, which could influence investor decisions.
- Market Rating Changes: J.P. Morgan has upgraded Toast's rating, citing an optimistic outlook for 2026, particularly as the company shifts from a growth-at-all-costs approach to a focus on disciplined, high-margin scaling, which may attract increased investor interest.
See More
