Should You Buy Toast Inc (TOST) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
31.110
1 Day change
0.06%
52 Week Range
49.660
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
TOST is not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer. The stock is in a clear short-term downtrend (bearish moving averages and worsening MACD), sitting just above near-term support (~31.21) and below the key pivot (~32.66). With no Intellectia buy signals today and insiders actively selling, the risk of further downside/sideways chop into earnings (2026-02-12) is higher than the immediate upside. A better “right now” buy setup would be a reclaim of ~32.66 (pivot) and stabilization, or a clean bounce off ~30.31 support with improving momentum—neither is present in the data.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum:
- Moving Averages: Bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) confirms a downtrend across timeframes.
- MACD: Histogram -0.356, below zero and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is increasing, not fading.
- RSI(6): 22.30 indicates the stock is very stretched/oversold short-term, which can spark bounces, but oversold alone is not a buy signal when MACD/MA trend is still deteriorating.
Levels:
- Immediate support: S1 ~31.211 (price ~31.11–31.12 is essentially sitting on it). If this breaks, next support is S2 ~30.314.
- Resistance/pivot: Pivot ~32.663 is the key “trend line in the sand.” Above it, upside targets are R1 ~34.114 then R2 ~35.011.
Probability/Pattern read:
- Similar-pattern projection implies modest negative drift over the next month (model shows ~-0.75% next month), consistent with the current bearish structure.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Interpretation:
- Put/Call (Open Interest) 0.68 and Put/Call (Volume) 0.43 both show a call-leaning market (more bullish positioning than bearish).
- Implied Volatility (30d) ~47.76 vs Historical Volatility ~54.66 → IV is not elevated versus realized; options are not pricing extreme near-term fear.
- Activity: today’s volume ~9,312 vs 30D average participation only ~52.75% → sentiment is mildly bullish, but not backed by unusually strong flow today.
Overall: options skew is supportive (bullish bias), but not strong enough to override the bearish price trend and insider selling.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 after hours (event-driven upside possible if guidance/units surprise positively).
- Analyst support remains present despite some trimming: recent Evercore upgrade to Outperform ($40 PT) and JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight ($43 PT).
- Fundamentals (latest reported quarter) show strong growth in revenue, profits, and margins.
- Positioning/flows: Hedge funds reported as net buyers with a sharp increase in buying activity last quarter.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Insiders are selling aggressively (selling amount up materially over the last month), which is a near-term sentiment headwind.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $1.633B, +25.13% YoY (strong top-line growth).
- Net Income: $105M, +87.50% YoY (profitability scaling faster than revenue).
- EPS: $0.17, +88.89% YoY.
- Gross Margin: 26.45%, +7.22% YoY (margin expansion trend is constructive).
Takeaway: Business performance is improving meaningfully, but the stock’s current setup is being driven more by technical weakness/positioning and forward-expectations risk into the next earnings window.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (ratings/targets): mixed but still net constructive.
- Upgrades: Evercore upgraded to Outperform with a $40 PT (valuation reset + field checks supportive). JPMorgan previously upgraded to Overweight with a $43 PT.
- Downgrade: Wolfe downgraded to Peer Perform citing fair valuation, competition, and TAM uncertainty.
- Price targets: Several firms trimmed targets modestly (e.g., Truist and Stephens), suggesting tempered near-term expectations even among non-bears.
Wall Street pros:
- Strong competitive position/operating leverage narrative; valuation seen as more reasonable after pullback; continued solid growth expected.
Wall Street cons:
- Near-term comparisons/guidance risk (potential expectation reset), competition concerns, and view by some that valuation/estimates are now “fair,” limiting near-term upside without a catalyst.
Influential/political trading check:
- Congress trading data (last 90 days): none provided.
- No politician/influential figure transactions provided in the dataset.
Wall Street analysts forecast TOST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TOST is 47 USD with a low forecast of 36 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
21 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast TOST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TOST is 47 USD with a low forecast of 36 USD and a high forecast of 60 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 31.090
Low
36
Averages
47
High
60
Current: 31.090
Low
36
Averages
47
High
60
Truist
Buy
downgrade
$43 -> $42
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$43 -> $42
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Truist lowered the firm's price target on Toast to $42 from $43 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q4 earnings in FinTech. The quarter's results should be solid, although a tougher y/y comparison may limit volume-related beats, and while Truist is optimistic on the group throughout 2026, some management teams may look to reset Street expectations a bit lower with their original 2026 guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight -> Overweight
upgrade
$125 -> $131
2026-01-20
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$125 -> $131
2026-01-20
upgrade
Equal Weight -> Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley upgraded ServiceTitan (TTAN) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $131, up from $125. The firm says its areas of prior caution, namely ServiceTitan's valuation, commercial ramp, and go-to-market efficiency "have turned to a positive inflection point." The analyst cites increased conviction in the company's fundamentals and execution for the upgrade. Morgan Stanley named ServiceTitan its new sector top pick in place of Toast (TOST).
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