ETF Outflow Warning: QYLD, ISRG, GILD, ADBE
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 17 2025
0mins
Should l Buy ADBE?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
QYLD Share Price Analysis: QYLD's share price is currently at $17.45, with a 52-week low of $14.475 and a high of $18.89, indicating a range of performance over the past year.
Understanding ETFs: Exchange traded funds (ETFs) function like stocks, where investors buy and sell "units" that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the underlying assets.
Monitoring ETF Flows: Weekly monitoring of shares outstanding helps identify ETFs with significant inflows (new units created) or outflows (units destroyed), which can affect the individual components of the ETFs.
Author's Perspective: The opinions expressed in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Analyst Views on ADBE
Wall Street analysts forecast ADBE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADBE is 454.52 USD with a low forecast of 310.00 USD and a high forecast of 660.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
24 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 257.160
Low
310.00
Averages
454.52
High
660.00
Current: 257.160
Low
310.00
Averages
454.52
High
660.00
About ADBE
Adobe Inc. is a global technology company. The Company's products, services and solutions are used around the world to imagine, create, manage, deliver, measure, optimize and engage with content across surfaces and fuel digital experiences. Its segments include Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising. The Digital Media segment is centered around Adobe Creative Cloud and Adobe Document Cloud, which include Adobe Express, Adobe Firefly, Photoshop and other products, offering a variety of tools for creative professionals, communicators and other consumers. The Digital Experience segment provides an integrated platform and set of products, services and solutions through Adobe Experience Cloud. The Publishing and Advertising segment contains legacy products and services. In addition, its Adobe GenStudio solution allows businesses to simplify their content supply chain process with generative artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities and intelligent automation.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Strong Financial Performance: Despite challenges, Adobe reported record revenue of $23.77 billion for fiscal year 2025, an 11% year-over-year increase, with net income reaching $7.13 billion, showcasing sustained growth potential in its Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud segments.
- Share Buyback Strategy: Adobe has repurchased over 70 million shares since 2022, and although there was a slight slowdown in buybacks in 2023, this strategy is significant for a company with 410.5 million shares outstanding, aiming to enhance earnings per share by reducing the number of shares in circulation.
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- Operating Margin Improvement: AWS achieved a 35% operating margin, slightly widening from the previous quarter, indicating positive progress in cost control and efficiency enhancement, thereby strengthening its profitability.
- Impact of AI Technology: AWS CEO Matt Garman stated that while market fears regarding AI models potentially slowing software company growth are overblown, AI is indeed a disruptive force that will change how software is consumed and built, emphasizing the necessity for continuous innovation.
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- Sustained Customer Demand: AWS anticipates that customers will require more compute technology and infrastructure than ever before, whether self-built, AI-based, or purchased from SaaS vendors, indicating ongoing demand for cloud services and market potential.
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- SaaS Industry Crisis: As AI technology advances, investors are increasingly anxious about the future of software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies, with some labeling the situation as the 'SaaSpocalypse,' leading to significant declines in stocks like Salesforce and Adobe, indicating concerns over traditional software profitability.
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- Stock Decline: Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, Adobe's stock has fallen by 21%, reflecting market concerns that AI content creation technologies may render its services obsolete, leading to diminished investor confidence and impacting the company's market capitalization.
- Strong Financial Performance: Despite challenges, Adobe reported record revenue of $23.77 billion for fiscal year 2025, an 11% year-over-year increase, with net income reaching $7.13 billion, showcasing sustained growth potential in its Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud segments.
- Share Buyback Strategy: Adobe has repurchased over 70 million shares since 2022, and although there was a slight slowdown in buybacks in 2023, this strategy is significant for a company with 410.5 million shares outstanding, aiming to enhance earnings per share by reducing the number of shares in circulation.
- AI Integration Progress: In its Q4 earnings report, Adobe noted that over 70% of Adobe Experience Platform customers are utilizing the AI Assistant, and the number of clients generating over $10 million in annual recurring revenue grew by 25% year-over-year, indicating that the company's innovations in AI are enhancing customer satisfaction and engagement.
See More
AWS CEO Expresses Strong Confidence in Future Growth
- Cloud Revenue Growth: Amazon's cloud computing segment reported a revenue of $35.6 billion in Q4, reflecting a 24% year-over-year increase that surpassed analyst expectations, showcasing the segment's robust performance and ongoing growth potential in the market.
- Operating Margin Improvement: AWS achieved a 35% operating margin, slightly widening from the previous quarter, indicating positive progress in cost control and efficiency enhancement, thereby strengthening its profitability.
- Impact of AI Technology: AWS CEO Matt Garman stated that while market fears regarding AI models potentially slowing software company growth are overblown, AI is indeed a disruptive force that will change how software is consumed and built, emphasizing the necessity for continuous innovation.
- Growing Customer Demand: Garman highlighted that customer demand for computing technology and infrastructure will continue to rise, whether through self-building, AI-based solutions, or purchasing from SaaS vendors, a trend that will drive AWS's future business expansion.
See More
AWS Chief Claims AI Panic is Overblown Amid SaaS Apocalypse
- Cloud Growth Exceeds Expectations: Amazon Web Services reported a 24% revenue increase in Q4, reaching $35.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations and demonstrating strong performance in the cloud infrastructure market despite pressures on overall software stocks.
- Market Panic Overreaction: AWS Chief Matt Garman stated that investor fears regarding AI models potentially slowing software company growth are overblown, emphasizing that core business metrics have not deteriorated, reflecting an excessive market reaction to technology stocks.
- AI-Driven Industry Transformation: Garman noted that AI will change how software is consumed and built, and while large SaaS providers face challenges, they still have an advantage in innovation and must continuously evolve to avoid disruption.
- Sustained Customer Demand: AWS anticipates that customers will require more compute technology and infrastructure than ever before, whether self-built, AI-based, or purchased from SaaS vendors, indicating ongoing demand for cloud services and market potential.
See More
AI Investment Sparks Market Turbulence
- Market Concerns Intensify: Amazon's announcement of a $200 billion investment in AI-related capital expenditures by 2026 has led to a 9% decline in its stock year-to-date, reflecting investor worries about excessive AI spending potentially impacting future profitability.
- Microsoft's Earnings Reaction: Despite reporting a 17% year-over-year revenue increase and a 21% rise in operating income, Microsoft's stock fell 17% due to concerns over its plan to spend over $100 billion on capex this year, indicating market skepticism about its AI investments.
- SaaS Sector Struggles: Software companies like Salesforce and Adobe have seen significant stock price declines as investors fear that advancements in AI will severely disrupt the enterprise software industry, leading to a phenomenon dubbed the
See More
AI Stocks Decline Amid Spending Concerns
- Investor Concerns: Major AI and software stocks have declined year-to-date due to worries about AI spending and industry disruption, with Amazon and Microsoft seeing stock drops of approximately 9% and 17%, respectively, reflecting market skepticism about their planned capital expenditures of $200 billion and $100 billion.
- SaaS Industry Crisis: As AI technology advances, investors are increasingly anxious about the future of software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies, with some labeling the situation as the 'SaaSpocalypse,' leading to significant declines in stocks like Salesforce and Adobe, indicating concerns over traditional software profitability.
- ETF Investment Opportunity: Investors can consider buying the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF to capitalize on a potential rebound in software company share prices, which includes 114 North American software firms and has delivered an average annual return of 10.4%, despite a P/E ratio of 35.2, slightly above the Nasdaq-100's 32.4.
- Uncertain Industry Outlook: Despite industry insiders like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang opposing the 'SaaSpocalypse' narrative, asserting that AI will not fully replace software, the ongoing sell-off in software stocks continues, prompting investors to carefully evaluate future investment opportunities.
See More
US Stock Market Close and Employment Data Analysis
- Strong Employment Data: US nonfarm payrolls for January increased by 130,000, surpassing expectations of 65,000, indicating labor market stability, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1% to 4.3%, which is likely to have a positive impact on economic recovery.
- Interest Rate Expectations Shift: Following the robust employment report, the market's expectation for a Fed rate cut next month dropped from 23% to 6%, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by 3 basis points to 4.17%, reflecting a cautious outlook on future monetary policy.
- Mixed Market Performance: The S&P 500 closed unchanged, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.29%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.13%, highlighting a contrast between strong tech stock performance and weakness in software stocks.
- Optimistic Earnings Outlook: Over 78% of the 335 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, indicating that sustained corporate profitability will support long-term stock market gains.
See More
