Domino's Misses Q4 Earnings Expectations Despite Positive Guidance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Earnings Miss: Domino's Pizza reported Q4 earnings of $5.35 per share, falling short of the $5.38 consensus estimate, although the stock rose by 3.46% on the news, indicating market optimism.
- Prediction Market Insights: On Polymarket, 64% of traders anticipated Domino's would beat earnings expectations, but the actual results favored 'no' contracts, highlighting the potential utility of prediction markets in earnings reporting.
- Positive Future Guidance: Despite missing Q4 earnings expectations, Domino's provided 2026 EPS guidance above Wall Street's $19.54 forecast, suggesting strong growth potential moving forward.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Morgan Stanley downgraded Domino's from overweight to equal weight and cut its price target by 15%, reflecting mixed market sentiment, even as some investors remain bullish on the stock.
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Analyst Views on DPZ
Wall Street analysts forecast DPZ stock price to rise
15 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 400.360
Low
370.00
Averages
464.83
High
556.00
Current: 400.360
Low
370.00
Averages
464.83
High
556.00
About DPZ
Domino’s Pizza, Inc. is a pizza company with a significant business in both delivery and carryout. The Company operates through three segments: U.S. stores, international franchise, and supply chain. The U.S. stores segment is comprised primarily of its franchise operations, which consists of franchised stores located in the United States. The segment also operates a network of United States Company-owned stores. The international franchise segment primarily includes operations related to the Company’s franchising business in foreign markets. The supply chain segment primarily includes the distribution of food, equipment and supplies to stores from the Company’s supply chain center operations in the United States and Canada. It is primarily a franchisor, with approximately 99% of its global stores owned and operated by its independent franchisees. In its international markets, the Company generally grants geographical rights to the Domino’s Pizza brand to master franchisees.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Domino's Pizza Reports Mixed Q4 Fiscal 2025 Results and Dividend Increase
- Earnings Highlights: Domino's reported Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings per share of $5.35, slightly below the analyst consensus of $5.39, while sales reached $1.536 billion, reflecting a 6.4% year-over-year increase and surpassing the market expectation of $1.520 billion, indicating strong sales performance.
- International Growth: CEO Russell Weiner noted that the company achieved its 32nd consecutive year of same-store sales growth internationally, with a 1-point market share gain in the U.S., significantly outpacing the growth of the QSR pizza category, underscoring Domino's competitive strength in the market.
- Dividend Increase: On February 18, Domino's announced a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.99, payable on March 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 13, 2026, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder returns and financial health.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Following the earnings announcement, JP Morgan upgraded Domino's rating from Neutral to Overweight, lowering the price target from $460 to $450, while Evercore ISI maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $490 to $510, indicating market confidence in Domino's future performance.
See More
JPMorgan Upgrades Domino's Pizza to Overweight Following Q4 Earnings
- Sales Growth: Domino's Pizza reported a 3.7% increase in U.S. same-store sales and a 1.9% increase in international same-store sales in its Q4 earnings report, indicating strong competitive positioning and consumer attraction.
- Rating Upgrade: JPMorgan upgraded Domino's from Neutral to Overweight, recommending investors capitalize on market hesitance regarding the company's future growth potential, particularly in light of upcoming promotional initiatives.
- Market Strategy: Analysts highlighted that future promotions, including the stuffed crust pizza in March 2025 and the $9.99 unlimited toppings large pizza, are expected to boost sales and further solidify the brand's market position.
- Global Growth Potential: China and India together account for approximately 62% of global unit growth and about 25% of operating income growth, showcasing Domino's strong international growth potential and enhancing its long-term investment appeal.
See More
Domino's Pizza Misses Q4 Earnings Estimates Despite Positive Guidance
- Earnings Miss: Domino's Pizza reported Q4 earnings of $5.35 per share, falling short of the $5.38 consensus estimate, which may dampen investor confidence and negatively impact stock performance.
- Prediction Market Dynamics: Despite 64% of Polymarket traders betting on a positive earnings surprise, the actual outcome favored 'no' contracts, highlighting uncertainty around the company's profitability and potentially affecting its reputation in prediction markets.
- Shareholder Confidence Fluctuations: Although Domino's missed Q4 earnings expectations, its 2026 EPS guidance exceeded Wall Street's $19.54 forecast, which could provide a short-term boost to stock prices and attract investor interest.
- Rating Downgrade Impact: Morgan Stanley downgraded Domino's from overweight to equal weight and cut its price target by 15%, reflecting concerns about future growth, which may lead investors to reassess their holding strategies.
See More
Domino's Misses Q4 Earnings Expectations Despite Positive Guidance
- Earnings Miss: Domino's Pizza reported Q4 earnings of $5.35 per share, falling short of the $5.38 consensus estimate, although the stock rose by 3.46% on the news, indicating market optimism.
- Prediction Market Insights: On Polymarket, 64% of traders anticipated Domino's would beat earnings expectations, but the actual results favored 'no' contracts, highlighting the potential utility of prediction markets in earnings reporting.
- Positive Future Guidance: Despite missing Q4 earnings expectations, Domino's provided 2026 EPS guidance above Wall Street's $19.54 forecast, suggesting strong growth potential moving forward.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Morgan Stanley downgraded Domino's from overweight to equal weight and cut its price target by 15%, reflecting mixed market sentiment, even as some investors remain bullish on the stock.
See More
Domino's Pizza Exceeds Q4 Earnings Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Domino's Pizza reported Q4 earnings that exceeded market expectations, although specific figures were not disclosed, this performance bolsters investor confidence in the company's future growth prospects.
- Sales Guidance Slowdown: Despite a strong Q4, Domino's guidance indicates potential slowing of US sales, which may impact investor expectations regarding the company's sustained growth.
- Analyst Price Target Maintained: Analyst Logan Reich maintains a price target of $425 for Domino's Pizza, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value despite facing short-term challenges.
- Market Reaction Analysis: The market reacted positively to Domino's earnings, and while the future sales guidance fell short of expectations, the maintained analyst price target may help stabilize the stock price to some extent.
See More
Domino's Pizza Reports Q4 Earnings Beat Amid Sales Deceleration Guidance
- Earnings Beat: Domino's Pizza reported a 3.7% growth in U.S. same-store sales for Q4, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.2%, driven by transaction growth while pricing remained flat, indicating resilience in a competitive market.
- Sales Guidance: Despite the strong Q4 performance, management's guidance indicates a deceleration in U.S. same-store sales for the second half of 2026, reflecting challenges ahead that could impact investor confidence.
- International Outlook: The company's guidance for 2026 international same-store sales growth is set at 1%-2%, below the consensus of 2.2%, which may negatively affect its global expansion strategy.
- Analyst Rating: RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich reiterated a Sector Perform rating with a price target of $425, reflecting a cautiously optimistic view on the company's future performance.
See More
Domino's Pizza Reports Mixed Q4 Fiscal 2025 Results and Dividend Increase
- Earnings Highlights: Domino's reported Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings per share of $5.35, slightly below the analyst consensus of $5.39, while sales reached $1.536 billion, reflecting a 6.4% year-over-year increase and surpassing the market expectation of $1.520 billion, indicating strong sales performance.
- International Growth: CEO Russell Weiner noted that the company achieved its 32nd consecutive year of same-store sales growth internationally, with a 1-point market share gain in the U.S., significantly outpacing the growth of the QSR pizza category, underscoring Domino's competitive strength in the market.
- Dividend Increase: On February 18, Domino's announced a 15% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.99, payable on March 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 13, 2026, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder returns and financial health.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Following the earnings announcement, JP Morgan upgraded Domino's rating from Neutral to Overweight, lowering the price target from $460 to $450, while Evercore ISI maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $490 to $510, indicating market confidence in Domino's future performance.
See More
JPMorgan Upgrades Domino's Pizza to Overweight Following Q4 Earnings
- Sales Growth: Domino's Pizza reported a 3.7% increase in U.S. same-store sales and a 1.9% increase in international same-store sales in its Q4 earnings report, indicating strong competitive positioning and consumer attraction.
- Rating Upgrade: JPMorgan upgraded Domino's from Neutral to Overweight, recommending investors capitalize on market hesitance regarding the company's future growth potential, particularly in light of upcoming promotional initiatives.
- Market Strategy: Analysts highlighted that future promotions, including the stuffed crust pizza in March 2025 and the $9.99 unlimited toppings large pizza, are expected to boost sales and further solidify the brand's market position.
- Global Growth Potential: China and India together account for approximately 62% of global unit growth and about 25% of operating income growth, showcasing Domino's strong international growth potential and enhancing its long-term investment appeal.
See More
Domino's Pizza Misses Q4 Earnings Estimates Despite Positive Guidance
- Earnings Miss: Domino's Pizza reported Q4 earnings of $5.35 per share, falling short of the $5.38 consensus estimate, which may dampen investor confidence and negatively impact stock performance.
- Prediction Market Dynamics: Despite 64% of Polymarket traders betting on a positive earnings surprise, the actual outcome favored 'no' contracts, highlighting uncertainty around the company's profitability and potentially affecting its reputation in prediction markets.
- Shareholder Confidence Fluctuations: Although Domino's missed Q4 earnings expectations, its 2026 EPS guidance exceeded Wall Street's $19.54 forecast, which could provide a short-term boost to stock prices and attract investor interest.
- Rating Downgrade Impact: Morgan Stanley downgraded Domino's from overweight to equal weight and cut its price target by 15%, reflecting concerns about future growth, which may lead investors to reassess their holding strategies.
See More
Domino's Misses Q4 Earnings Expectations Despite Positive Guidance
- Earnings Miss: Domino's Pizza reported Q4 earnings of $5.35 per share, falling short of the $5.38 consensus estimate, although the stock rose by 3.46% on the news, indicating market optimism.
- Prediction Market Insights: On Polymarket, 64% of traders anticipated Domino's would beat earnings expectations, but the actual results favored 'no' contracts, highlighting the potential utility of prediction markets in earnings reporting.
- Positive Future Guidance: Despite missing Q4 earnings expectations, Domino's provided 2026 EPS guidance above Wall Street's $19.54 forecast, suggesting strong growth potential moving forward.
- Analyst Rating Changes: Morgan Stanley downgraded Domino's from overweight to equal weight and cut its price target by 15%, reflecting mixed market sentiment, even as some investors remain bullish on the stock.
See More
Domino's Pizza Exceeds Q4 Earnings Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Domino's Pizza reported Q4 earnings that exceeded market expectations, although specific figures were not disclosed, this performance bolsters investor confidence in the company's future growth prospects.
- Sales Guidance Slowdown: Despite a strong Q4, Domino's guidance indicates potential slowing of US sales, which may impact investor expectations regarding the company's sustained growth.
- Analyst Price Target Maintained: Analyst Logan Reich maintains a price target of $425 for Domino's Pizza, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value despite facing short-term challenges.
- Market Reaction Analysis: The market reacted positively to Domino's earnings, and while the future sales guidance fell short of expectations, the maintained analyst price target may help stabilize the stock price to some extent.
See More
Domino's Pizza Reports Q4 Earnings Beat Amid Sales Deceleration Guidance
- Earnings Beat: Domino's Pizza reported a 3.7% growth in U.S. same-store sales for Q4, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.2%, driven by transaction growth while pricing remained flat, indicating resilience in a competitive market.
- Sales Guidance: Despite the strong Q4 performance, management's guidance indicates a deceleration in U.S. same-store sales for the second half of 2026, reflecting challenges ahead that could impact investor confidence.
- International Outlook: The company's guidance for 2026 international same-store sales growth is set at 1%-2%, below the consensus of 2.2%, which may negatively affect its global expansion strategy.
- Analyst Rating: RBC Capital Markets analyst Logan Reich reiterated a Sector Perform rating with a price target of $425, reflecting a cautiously optimistic view on the company's future performance.
See More
