Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis of QSR's valuation:
Technical Analysis
The stock is currently trading at $74.34, showing signs of consolidation after recent gains. The current price sits between the Fibonacci resistance level of $67.59 and support of $62.61, suggesting room for upward movement.
Fundamental Valuation
The stock appears fairly valued based on several metrics:
- Forward P/E of 20.77x (Q4 2023), which is in line with historical averages
- EV/EBITDA of 16.76x, indicating reasonable valuation compared to peers
- Price-to-Sales ratio of 5.07x, slightly elevated but justified by growth prospects
Recent Performance & Growth
Key improvements in 2023 vs 2022:
- Revenue growth: +7.9% to $7.02B
- Net income growth: +18.1% to $1.19B
- Gross margin expansion: +1.64% to 58.13%
- EPS growth: +15.7% to $3.76
Analyst Perspective
Recent analyst coverage remains positive:
- Oppenheimer maintains Outperform rating with $77 target
- RBC Capital reiterates Outperform with $80 target
- Analysts expect 2025 same-store sales growth of +2.5%
Growth Catalysts
- International Expansion:
- Strong system-wide sales growth of 11% in international markets
- Digital initiatives driving customer engagement
- Restaurant count growing at 3.4% annually
- Operational Improvements:
- Management expects EBIT growth over 8% for 2025
- Segment G&A optimization between $650-670 million
- Margin improvements from Tim Hortons distribution
Conclusion: QSR is currently NOT overvalued considering:
- Strong operational execution and margin expansion
- Healthy international growth trajectory
- Multiple expansion potential from improving fundamentals
- Reasonable valuation metrics relative to growth prospects
- Positive analyst sentiment with upside potential