Should You Buy Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
405.370
1 Day change
-2.05%
52 Week Range
500.550
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
DPZ is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who is impatient. The setup is mixed-to-negative: insiders and hedge funds are selling, options positioning is put-heavy (defensive sentiment), and analyst price targets have been trending down with multiple recent downgrades/neutral reiterations. If you already own it, it’s reasonable to hold into the Feb-23 earnings catalyst, but as a fresh long-term entry today, the data does not support a strong buy.
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: DPZ is around ~$405 post-market after a -2.05% regular-session drop, sitting just above the key pivot support (~402.54). Momentum is not strongly bullish.
Indicators: MACD histogram is positive (0.731) but contracting, implying upside momentum is fading. RSI(6) ~45.3 is neutral, suggesting no clear oversold bounce signal. Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation rather than a strong uptrend.
Levels: Immediate support is the pivot near 402.54; if that breaks, next supports are ~388.27 (S1) and ~379.46 (S2). Resistance sits near ~416.81 (R1) then ~425.62 (R2).
Pattern-based near-term odds: Similar-candlestick modeling implies modest downside bias over the next week/month (-2.41% next week; -3.23% next month).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment/Positioning: Both open-interest and volume put-call ratios are elevated (1.51 OI PCR; 1.45 volume PCR), indicating more downside hedging/speculation than upside.
Volatility: 30D IV (~27.43) is above historical volatility (~20.63), suggesting options are pricing in more movement than recent realized action. Volume is slightly above normal (today vs 30D avg ~102.6%), so the defensive tilt has current participation behind it.
Takeaway: Options market is leaning cautious/bearish rather than signaling a confident dip-buy.
Technical Summary
Sell
11
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-23 (pre-market) can act as a major catalyst if guidance/traffic trends surprise positively.
- Demand/event tailwind: Super Bowl promotion and management’s focus on value offers could support near-term order volume.
- International expansion narrative: News highlights rapid China store growth via Domino’s China operator (DPC Dash), which can support broader brand growth sentiment (though it’s not the same as DPZ corporate-owned expansion).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Smart-money flow: Hedge funds are selling (selling amount up ~164% over last quarter) and insiders are selling (up ~126% over last month), a meaningful negative signal.
- Sector headwinds: Multiple analysts cite restaurant/QSR industry pressure and a challenging operating environment.
- Options sentiment: Put-heavy positioning (PCRs > 1) suggests investors are leaning defensive into the near-term.
- If price loses pivot (~402.5), technical downside opens toward ~388 and ~379 supports.
Recent trend: Price targets have generally been cut and ratings have drifted more cautious. Notable moves include Morgan Stanley downgrade to Equal Weight with a lower PT ($455 from $535), TD Cowen downgrade to Hold ($460), and multiple target trims (Evercore, Stifel, Wells Fargo, Guggenheim). BofA is a key bullish outlier, raising PT to $556 and maintaining Buy, while Barclays remains bearish (Underweight, PT $370).
Wall Street pros (bull case): Brand strength, resilient demand drivers/events, continued international opportunity, and potential execution improvements into 2026.
Wall Street cons (bear case): Restaurant-sector headwinds, more value-focused strategy pressuring mix, and a more cautious stance on franchised fast food; target cuts and downgrades indicate reduced conviction.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days, and no politician trading signals were provided here.
Wall Street analysts forecast DPZ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DPZ is 488.46 USD with a low forecast of 370 USD and a high forecast of 545 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
22 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DPZ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DPZ is 488.46 USD with a low forecast of 370 USD and a high forecast of 545 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 413.870
Low
370
Averages
488.46
High
545
Current: 413.870
Low
370
Averages
488.46
High
545
Guggenheim
Neutral
maintain
$490 -> $450
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Guggenheim
Price Target
$490 -> $450
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Domino's Pizza to $450 from $490 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm trimmed 5c from each of its 2025 and 2026 EPS forecasts and reduced its price target to reflect the headwinds pressuring the restaurant industry as a whole in 2025 that it expects will weigh on 2026, the analyst tells investors.
BofA
Sara Senatore
Buy
maintain
$536 -> $556
2026-01-26
New
Reason
BofA
Sara Senatore
Price Target
$536 -> $556
2026-01-26
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA analyst Sara Senatore raised the firm's price target on Domino's Pizza to $556 from $536 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is fine-tuning estimates for 22 restaurant companies across its coverage and adjusting select price targets to reflect estimate and valuation multiple changes.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for DPZ
