Carnival Reports Q4 Earnings Exceeding Expectations, Year-over-Year Revenue Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Fourth-Quarter Performance: Carnival Corporation reported adjusted earnings per share of 34 cents for Q4 fiscal 2025, exceeding estimates, while revenues of $6.33 billion fell slightly short of expectations but increased 6.6% year-over-year.
Strong Year-End Results: The company achieved record results in fiscal 2025, with adjusted net income rising over 60% and total revenues reaching $26.62 billion, reflecting solid demand and effective cost control.
Positive Outlook for Fiscal 2026: Carnival anticipates continued growth with projected adjusted EBITDA of approximately $7.63 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.48, supported by strong booking momentum and high occupancy rates.
Financial Stability: As of November 30, 2025, Carnival's liquidity stood at $6.4 billion, with total debt reduced to $26.64 billion, indicating a strengthened financial position and improved balance sheet metrics.
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Analyst Views on CCL
Wall Street analysts forecast CCL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CCL is 37.59 USD with a low forecast of 33.00 USD and a high forecast of 45.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 31.450
Low
33.00
Averages
37.59
High
45.00
Current: 31.450
Low
33.00
Averages
37.59
High
45.00
About CCL
Carnival Corporation is a global cruise and leisure travel company. The Company has a portfolio of cruise lines, including AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), Princess Cruises, and Seabourn. The Company's segment includes NAA cruise operations, Europe cruise operations (Europe), Cruise Support and Tour and Other. Its Cruise Support segment includes its portfolio of port destinations and exclusive islands as well as other services, all of which are operated for the benefit of its cruise brands. In addition to its cruise operations, it owns Holland America Princess Alaska Tours, a tour company in Alaska and the Canadian Yukon, which complements its Alaska cruise operations. Its Tour and Other segment represents the hotel and transportation operations of Holland America Princess Alaska Tours and other operations. Its tour company owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars and motorcoaches.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Hawaii Deep Dive: The new itineraries feature extended stays in Honolulu, allowing guests to explore natural sites like Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and engage in cultural programming, enhancing the overall visitor experience and strengthening brand appeal in the competitive cruise market.
- Panama Canal Marvel: The 14 to 22-day voyages provide guests with a front-row view of the engineering marvel of the Panama Canal, combining eco-tourism with cultural immersion, which is expected to attract history and nature enthusiasts, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of the itineraries.
- Early Booking Incentives: The “Have It All” early booking bonus offers guests perks such as shore excursions and specialty dining, which is anticipated to drive early reservations and boost overall sales performance for the cruise line.
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- Sustainability Strategy: Carnival's SEA Change plan aims to enhance sustainability and return on invested capital, further driving the company's dual goals of environmental responsibility and profitability, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the market.
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- New Itineraries Launched: Holland America Line introduces nearly three dozen new itineraries for 2027-2028, covering Hawaii, Mexico, the Panama Canal, and the Pacific Coast, catering to travelers' desires for deeper exploration and likely increasing customer interest in their offerings.
- Hawaii Deep Dive: The new itineraries feature extended stays in Honolulu, allowing guests to explore natural sites like Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and engage in cultural programming, enhancing the overall visitor experience and strengthening brand appeal in the competitive cruise market.
- Panama Canal Marvel: The 14 to 22-day voyages provide guests with a front-row view of the engineering marvel of the Panama Canal, combining eco-tourism with cultural immersion, which is expected to attract history and nature enthusiasts, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of the itineraries.
- Early Booking Incentives: The “Have It All” early booking bonus offers guests perks such as shore excursions and specialty dining, which is anticipated to drive early reservations and boost overall sales performance for the cruise line.
See More
Carnival's Remarkable Recovery and Profitability Improvement
- Debt Management Success: Carnival has effectively managed its debt during the pandemic by aggressively paying it down, resulting in an upgrade to investment-grade credit status, which enhances financial stability and investor confidence.
- Record Financial Performance: The company reported full-year revenue exceeding $26 billion and adjusted net income of $3.1 billion in 2023, surpassing financial goals by 18 months, indicating strong market demand and improving profitability.
- Sustainability Strategy: Carnival's SEA Change plan aims to enhance sustainability and return on invested capital, further driving the company's dual goals of environmental responsibility and profitability, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the market.
- Attractive Valuation for Investors: With a current P/E ratio of 12, down from over 16 a year ago, combined with its impressive recovery narrative, Carnival may attract more investors, potentially leading to further stock price gains.
See More
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- Tariff Policy Implementation: President Trump signed an executive order last Thursday imposing tariffs on any country supplying oil to Cuba, aiming to sever the island's ties with alternative suppliers like Mexico and Russia, thereby further isolating its economy.
- Economic Crisis Intensifies: Following the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, Cuba has lost its primary source of subsidized oil, leading to a near-collapse of its economy and a drastic reduction in oil supplies, exacerbating the hardships faced by its citizens.
- Political Transition Expectations: Traders in the market are betting on a power transition in Cuba by the end of the year, with a 55% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel will be replaced, while the likelihood of a U.S. military strike on Cuba stands at only 26%, indicating confidence in achieving regime change through non-military means.
- Cruise Market Potential: A reopening of Cuba could fundamentally alter the Caribbean tourism landscape, as demand for Cuba sailings was 20% higher than for Bahamas cruises between 2016 and 2019, and a democratic transition could present significant profit opportunities for U.S. cruise lines.
See More
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- New Itineraries Launched: Holland America Line introduces nearly three dozen new itineraries for 2027-2028, covering Hawaii, Mexico, the Panama Canal, and the Pacific Coast, catering to travelers' desires for deeper exploration and likely increasing vacationer interest in their offerings.
- In-Depth Hawaii Experience: Extended stays in Honolulu allow guests to explore natural wonders like Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and black-sand beaches while engaging in cultural activities, enhancing the overall visitor experience and solidifying Holland America's market position on the West Coast.
- Panama Canal Marvel: 14 to 22-day voyages provide guests with a front-row view of the engineering marvel of the canal, alongside UNESCO World Heritage sites and rich wildlife, which enhances the itinerary's appeal and is expected to boost overall company revenues.
- Early Booking Incentives: The “Have It All” early booking bonus offers guests perks like shore excursions and specialty dining, which is anticipated to drive booking volumes and enhance customer loyalty, further supporting Holland America Line's growth strategy.
See More
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- Valuation Comparison: Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) trades at a forward P/E ratio of less than nine, significantly lower than Carnival's 12, Royal Caribbean's 18, and Viking's 22, indicating its relative undervaluation in the industry but raising concerns about its profitability.
- Stock Performance: Over the past year, NCLH's stock has slid more than 20%, while its peers have posted double-digit percentage gains, reflecting a lack of market confidence in NCLH and potentially impacting its future financing and investor appeal.
- Revenue Multiple Analysis: NCLH's market cap to revenue ratio stands at 1.1, far below Carnival's 1.7, Royal Caribbean's 4.9, and Viking's 5.3, suggesting a disadvantage in revenue generation capability that may lead to investor caution regarding its future growth.
- Future Outlook: Although NCLH achieved a 5% revenue growth in Q3, with an 11% increase projected for Q4, its ability to sustain performance improvements and change market perceptions of its
See More
Carnival Corporation Stock Price Dynamics Analysis
- Price Fluctuation Analysis: Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) shares surged over 8% on Monday but dipped slightly on Tuesday, indicating market volatility and investor caution regarding industry prospects.
- Psychological Price Impact: Analysts note that market participants tend to trade around the psychological price level of $32.50, which has created significant resistance in past trading sessions, influencing stock price movements.
- Importance of Resistance Level: Since August, Carnival's stock has faced resistance near $32.50, where investors chose to exit positions, exacerbating selling pressure and reflecting shifts in market sentiment.
- Breakout Potential Observation: Should Carnival's stock manage to break through and hold above $32.50, it could be seen as a 'breakout', potentially leading to bullish implications as more buyers enter the market, driving the stock price higher.
See More
