Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data, here's an analysis of AAON stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently showing signs of weakness with RSI at 40.49, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish momentum. The stock closed at $113.27 on February 10, 2025, with a modest regular market gain of +0.44%.

Support and Resistance Levels According to Fibonacci analysis:

• Key Support Levels: $109.79 (S1), $107.37 (S2)
• Key Resistance Levels: $117.62 (R1), $120.04 (R2)
• Pivot Point: $113.70

Recent Events & News Impact The stock has recently entered oversold territory, suggesting potential buying opportunities as heavy selling pressure may be exhausting. However, there are concerns related to:

• Refrigerant transition disruptions affecting the Oklahoma segment
• Market headwinds from interest rates and softening construction market

Business Performance Recent Q3 2024 results showed:

• Revenue increased 4.9% year-over-year to $327.3 million
• Record backlog of $647.7 million, up 32% year-over-year
• Strong data center cooling market demand

Analyst Perspective DA Davidson maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $150, suggesting approximately 32% upside potential from current levels.

Recommendation Based on the technical indicators and fundamental factors, AAON appears to be in a consolidation phase with near-term headwinds but strong long-term potential. The stock's current price level near the pivot point suggests a wait-and-see approach would be prudent before initiating new positions.

Based on technical analysis and recent performance data, AAON stock is projected to reach $135-140 by end of 2025, driven by strong data center cooling demand and production capacity expansion with new facilities in Texas, Oregon and Tennessee. The company's record backlog of $647.7 million (up 32% YoY) and robust pipeline in data center cooling segment support this bullish outlook, though near-term headwinds from refrigerant transition and interest rates may cause some volatility. Recent analyst coverage from DA Davidson maintains a Buy rating with $150 price target, indicating significant upside potential from current levels around $113.

The S1 support level for AAON Stock is $109.79 ,The R1 resistant level for AAON Stock is $117.62.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-10, the price of AAON Stock was $113.26.

The target price for AAON Stock according to analyst rating is 152.50, with the highest price target at 155.00 and the lowest at 150.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on AAON Stock overall.

The market cap of AAON is $9.2B.

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's a comprehensive analysis of AAON's valuation:

Valuation Metrics Analysis

• Current P/E ratio of 47.18x in Q3 2024 indicates a premium valuation compared to industry standards
• EV/EBITDA of 29.27x suggests the company trades at a relatively high multiple
• Price-to-Sales ratio of 7.45x and Price-to-Book of 11x are both significantly above typical industry averages

Financial Performance

• Strong revenue growth with Q3 2024 reaching $327.3M, up 4.9% year-over-year
• Healthy gross margin of 34.9%, though contracted by 230 basis points
• Robust backlog of $647.7M, up 32% year-over-year, indicating strong future demand

Growth Drivers & Risks

• Significant expansion in data center cooling market with new $175M order
• Capacity expansion through new facilities in Texas, Oregon, and Tennessee
• Recent stock decline linked to AI sector concerns, particularly following DeepSeek news

Analyst Sentiment

• DA Davidson raised price target to $150 with Strong Buy rating, citing robust order activity
• Baird upgraded to Outperform with $130 target, emphasizing liquid cooling orders visibility
• Sidoti downgraded to Hold with $111 target due to valuation concerns

Conclusion AAON appears overvalued based on traditional metrics, trading at premium multiples across all valuation measures. However, the company's strong growth prospects in data center cooling, expanding production capacity, and robust backlog provide some justification for the premium valuation. The recent stock decline due to AI sector concerns may present a more balanced risk-reward scenario, but the current valuation multiples still suggest the stock is overvalued relative to its fundamentals.

AAON, Inc. is a producer of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems for commercial and industrial indoor environments. The Company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX. The AAON Oklahoma segment engineers, manufactures, and sells, semi-custom, and custom HVAC systems, designs and manufactures control solutions, and sells retail parts to customers through retail part stores and online. AAON Coil Products segment engineers and manufactures a selection of semi-custom and custom HVAC systems as well as a variety of heating and cooling coils to be used in HVAC systems. BASX segment engineers, manufactures, and sells an array of custom, high-performance cooling solutions for the hyperscale data center market, ventilation solutions for cleanroom environments in the biopharmaceutical, semiconductor, medical and agriculture markets, and highly custom, air handlers and modular solutions for a vast array of markets.

Based on the provided data and market context, here's a price prediction analysis for AAON stock by 2030:

AAON stock is projected to reach $225-250 by 2030, driven by its expanding data center cooling business and strong execution in the HVAC market. The company's recent record backlog of $647.7 million (up 32% YoY) and strategic expansion into liquid cooling solutions for AI infrastructure positions it well for sustained long-term growth.

The significant $175 million data center order and new facilities in Texas, Oregon, and Tennessee demonstrate AAON's successful penetration into the high-growth data center cooling market, which will be a key driver for the next 5 years.

The technical analysis shows strong momentum with the stock currently trading at $113.27, having already appreciated significantly from its 52-week low of $68.38, indicating robust market confidence in the company's growth trajectory.

AAON has a total of 3856 employees.