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AAON Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Aaon Inc (AAON) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
91.510
1 Day change
1.07%
52 Week Range
116.040
Analysis Updated At
2026/03/05
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AAON is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. Despite strong financial performance and positive analyst ratings, the recent price decline, insider selling trends, and lack of significant trading signals suggest waiting for a more favorable entry point. The stock may stabilize or recover, but current technical indicators and sentiment do not strongly support an immediate buy decision.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is negative and expanding, indicating bearish momentum. RSI is at 29.201, close to oversold territory but not signaling a reversal yet. Moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend. The stock is trading near its support level (S1: 92.967), with resistance levels far above at R1: 109.404. Overall, the technical indicators suggest a bearish trend with no immediate buy signal.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The high put-call volume ratio indicates bearish sentiment among options traders, while the open interest put-call ratio is neutral. Implied volatility is relatively high at 56.91, suggesting uncertainty.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
5
Buy
7

Positive Catalysts

  • Strong financial performance in Q4 2025, with revenue up 42.49% YoY and net income up 29.74% YoY.

  • Analyst Noah Kaye raised the price target to $118 and maintained an Outperform rating.

  • Quarterly dividend declaration reflects commitment to shareholder returns.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Insider selling has increased significantly (320.41% over the last month), indicating potential lack of confidence from insiders.

  • The stock price has declined sharply (-3.72% in regular market and -2.03% pre-market).

  • Bearish sentiment in options trading with a high put-call volume ratio of 2.0.

Financial Performance

AAON reported strong Q4 2025 financials: Revenue increased by 42.49% YoY to $424.2 million, net income rose by 29.74% YoY to $32.032 million, and EPS grew by 34.48% YoY to $0.39. However, gross margin slightly declined by 0.73% YoY to 25.88%.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst Noah Kaye from Oppenheimer raised the price target to $118 from $115 and maintained an Outperform rating. This reflects confidence in the company's long-term growth potential despite recent mixed results.

Wall Street analysts forecast AAON stock price to rise
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AAON stock price to rise
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 90.540
sliders
Low
115
Averages
119
High
125
Current: 90.540
sliders
Low
115
Averages
119
High
125
Oppenheimer
Noah Kaye
Outperform
maintain
$115 -> $118
AI Analysis
2026-03-03
Reason
Oppenheimer
Noah Kaye
Price Target
$115 -> $118
AI Analysis
2026-03-03
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Oppenheimer analyst Noah Kaye raised the firm's price target on Aaon to $118 from $115 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes shares traded up Monday after Aaon reported mixed Q4 results, while guiding FY26 revenue/gross profit 10%/16% above the Street, respectively.
Baird
Timothy Wojs
maintain
$116 -> $125
2025-11-07
Reason
Baird
Timothy Wojs
Price Target
$116 -> $125
2025-11-07
maintain
Reason
Baird analyst Timothy Wojs raised the firm's price target on Aaon to $125 from $116 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q3 results which showed excellent BASX orders.
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