Should You Buy Aaon Inc (AAON) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
93.310
1 Day change
2.29%
52 Week Range
118.880
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
AAON is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. The stock is in a neutral/late-uptrend consolidation technically, but fundamentals are showing meaningful margin and earnings deterioration (despite revenue growth), insiders are selling aggressively, and a credible short report is directly challenging the sustainability/quality of data-center-driven growth and margins (including a restatement allegation). With no Intellectia buy signals today, the risk/reward is not attractive for a fresh long-term entry at current levels.
Technical Analysis
Price (pre-market): ~92.31 (recent/current ref ~91.86). Trend is more sideways-to-slightly-up but losing momentum.
- MACD: Histogram positive (1.159) but “positively contracting” = bullish momentum is fading.
- RSI(6): 54.44 (neutral) = no oversold edge for an impatient entry.
- Moving averages: converging = consolidation/chop risk.
- Key levels: Pivot 90.97 (price slightly above pivot), Resistance R1 96.47 then R2 99.87; Support S1 85.47 then S2 82.07. A near-term push exists toward 96–100, but the setup is not a clean high-conviction trend.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is mixed:
- Open interest put/call 0.29 is skewed bullish (more calls positioned than puts).
- Volume put/call 1.03 is slightly bearish/defensive on the day (puts slightly heavier than calls), suggesting near-term hedging.
- Implied volatility (30D) 63.87 with IV percentile 82 = elevated uncertainty/risk premium (options are expensive), consistent with a stock where participants see potential large moves.
- Today’s options volume is light (77 contracts) and ~30% of the 30-day average, so the signal from today’s tape is not strong.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
1) Analyst commentary after Q3 highlighted a beat and raised outlook, plus “record backlog” and strong data-center/BASX demand.
2) Technically, price is holding above the pivot (~90.97); a break above ~96.47 could invite momentum buying.
3) Revenue growth remains solid (+17.41% YoY in 2025/Q3), showing demand is real even if profitability is currently pressured.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Profitability deterioration: gross margin down materially YoY and EPS/net income down sharply (a major red flag for a long-term entry).
2) Insider activity: insiders are selling, with selling up ~320% over the last month—unfavorable timing for a new buy.
3) Short-seller report (Jehoshaphat Research): claims data-center projects have significantly lower margins than believed, forecasts >30% downside to earnings vs consensus, and raises the risk of an accounting restatement.
4) No supportive news catalysts in the past week to offset the margin/short-report overhang.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: 384.238M, +17.41% YoY (strong top-line growth).
- Net income: 30.782M, -41.51% YoY.
- EPS: 0.37, -41.27% YoY.
- Gross margin: 27.81%, down ~20.27% YoY.
Summary: Growth is being achieved with significantly worse profitability, which weakens the long-term compounding case unless margins stabilize/recover.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street trend: mostly positive.
- 2025-11-07 Baird: Outperform, PT raised to 125 (from 116) after Q3 and strong BASX/data-center orders.
- 2025-11-07 Oppenheimer: Outperform, PT raised to 115 (from 112), citing beat, raised FY outlook, record backlog.
- Key counterpoint: 2025-11-03 Jehoshaphat Research published a short thesis alleging margin overstatement/mix issues and even potential restatement risk.
Wall Street pros: strong demand/backlog, upbeat outlook, multiple PT raises.
Wall Street cons: margin sustainability is the core debate; if the short thesis (lower data-center margins / accounting quality concerns) proves correct, consensus earnings expectations are vulnerable.
Politicians/congress/influential trading: No recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast AAON stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAON is 119 USD with a low forecast of 115 USD and a high forecast of 125 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AAON stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAON is 119 USD with a low forecast of 115 USD and a high forecast of 125 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 91.220
Low
115
Averages
119
High
125
Current: 91.220
Low
115
Averages
119
High
125
Baird
Timothy Wojs
maintain
$116 -> $125
AI Analysis
2025-11-07
Reason
Baird
Timothy Wojs
Price Target
$116 -> $125
AI Analysis
2025-11-07
maintain
Reason
Baird analyst Timothy Wojs raised the firm's price target on Aaon to $125 from $116 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q3 results which showed excellent BASX orders.
Oppenheimer
Noah Kaye
Outperform
maintain
$112 -> $115
2025-11-07
Reason
Oppenheimer
Noah Kaye
Price Target
$112 -> $115
2025-11-07
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Oppenheimer analyst Noah Kaye raised the firm's price target on Aaon to $115 from $112 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes shares traded up Thursday after Aaon beat Q3 top-/bottom-line guidance and raised FY25 outlook, while reporting record backlog on data center strength.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AAON
