Biogen's Outlook Dims As Analyst Projects Flat Revenue Until 2026
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 18 2024
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Should l Buy BIIB?
Source: Benzinga
Biogen's Stock Downgrade: Needham downgraded Biogen Inc from Buy to Hold due to limited catalysts and gradual sales growth for its Alzheimer's drug Leqembi, with projected revenues expected to remain flat or decline slightly until 2026.
Sales Projections and Market Challenges: Despite positive developments like EMA's recommendation for Leqembi, market expectations are high, and Biogen faces challenges in adjusting these expectations realistically, with Skyclarys and Zurzuvae also showing uneven sales growth.
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Analyst Views on BIIB
Wall Street analysts forecast BIIB stock price to rise
26 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
14 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 189.280
Low
143.00
Averages
204.45
High
246.00
Current: 189.280
Low
143.00
Averages
204.45
High
246.00
About BIIB
Biogen Inc. is a global biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on discovering, developing, and delivering advanced therapies for people living with serious and complex diseases worldwide. It operates a portfolio of medicines to treat multiple sclerosis (MS), spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), Alzheimer's disease, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). It is focused on advancing its pipeline in neurology, specialized immunology, and rare diseases. Its marketed products include TECFIDERA, VUMERITY, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI and FAMPYRA for the treatment of MS; SPINRAZA for the treatment of SMA; SKYCLARYS for the treatment of Friedreich's Ataxia; QALSODY for the treatment of ALS, and FUMADERM for the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis. It also collaborations with Eisai on the commercialization of LEQEMBI for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease and Sage on the commercialization of ZURZUVAE for the treatment of Postpartum Depression (PPD).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Earnings Surge: Adjusted earnings per share reached $8.55, more than doubling from last year and exceeding the consensus estimate of $6.66, indicating the company's ability to achieve profitability despite declining drug prices.
- Competitive Market Dynamics: Despite competition from Novo Nordisk, CEO David Ricks emphasized that the company can overcome price declines through higher volumes, with U.S. drug prices down 7% but volumes up 49%, showcasing strong demand for its GLP-1 products.
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- Profitability Improvement: The company's attributable net income rose by 19% to $529 million, or $3.57 per share, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.95 per share, indicating a notable enhancement in profitability.
- Sales Growth: Sales of Leqembi surged by 74% to $168 million, serving as a key driver for revenue growth, while Skyclarys also exhibited strong double-digit growth, showcasing Biogen's success in new drug development.
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- Market Opportunity for LEQEMBI: The company anticipates launching the subcutaneous formulation of LEQEMBI on the PDUFA date of May 24, which is expected to improve patient convenience and strengthen its competitive position against Kisunla, further solidifying its role in Alzheimer's treatment.
- Acquisition Outlook: Biogen's proposed acquisition of Apellis is expected to be accretive by 2027, highlighting the company's strategic intent to expand commercial growth and enhance its nephrology portfolio, thereby driving future revenue growth.
- Cash Flow and Financial Health: The company generated $594 million in free cash flow during the quarter, with total cash and marketable securities reaching $4.7 billion and net debt at $1.5 billion, demonstrating robust financial health and ongoing investment capacity.
See More
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- High Call Option Activity: Within Regeneron, the $795 strike call option is particularly active, with 1,091 contracts traded today, representing approximately 109,100 shares, reflecting investor expectations for a price increase.
- Biogen Options Trading: Biogen Inc. saw options trading volume of 5,898 contracts, equating to approximately 589,800 shares, or about 43.3% of its average daily trading volume of 1.4 million shares over the past month, demonstrating significant market interest in its stock.
- Active Put Option Trading: For Biogen, the $170 strike put option has seen trading of 1,509 contracts, representing approximately 150,900 shares, indicating investor concerns regarding potential price declines.
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- 2026 Earnings Outlook Adjustment: Biogen now expects its 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS to range between $14.25 and $15.25, below the consensus of $15.55, highlighting the impact of acquired IPR&D charges on profitability and raising concerns about future growth.
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