Allstate (ALL) Estimates December Catastrophe Losses at $80M, Up from November

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

ALL+0.66%

Source: seekingalpha

Updated: 1h ago

0mins

Source: seekingalpha

Catastrophe Loss Estimate: Allstate estimates December catastrophe losses at $80 million, or $64 million after-tax, which is a significant increase from November's $46 million (or $36 million after-tax), indicating heightened natural disaster risks that could impact future financial performance.
Quarterly Outlook: The company expects fourth-quarter catastrophe losses to decrease to $209 million, or $165 million after-tax, compared to $558 million in Q3, demonstrating improvements in disaster management that may bolster investor confidence moving forward.
Policy Growth: The number of protection policies in force rose by 0.2% in December to 38.28 million from 38.21 million in November, indicating a stable customer base amidst market competition, which could support sustained revenue growth in the future.
Stock Price Reaction: Following the estimates, Allstate's shares rose by 0.50% in pre-market trading to $197.00, reflecting a positive market response to the company's financial health, potentially attracting more investor interest.

ALL

$197.305+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on ALL

Wall Street analysts forecast ALL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALL is 241.50 USD with a low forecast of 201.00 USD and a high forecast of 300.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

17 Analyst Rating

13 Buy

3 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 196.020

Low

201.00

Averages

241.50

High

300.00

Current: 196.020

Low

201.00

Averages

241.50

High

300.00

Evercore ISI

In Line

downgrade

$233 -> $225

Al Analysis

2026-01-07

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$233 -> $225

Al Analysis

2026-01-07

downgrade

In Line

Reason

Evercore ISI lowered the firm's price target on Allstate to $225 from $233 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares. With a tough cyclical backdrop, 2026 is "shaping up to be a challenging year for the P&C insurance sector," but this presents "a stock pickers market with opportunities for discerning investors," the analyst says in a year-ahead outlook note for the group.

Goldman Sachs

Buy

maintain

$243 -> $227

2026-01-07

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$243 -> $227

2026-01-07

maintain

Buy

Reason

Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Allstate to $227 from $243 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. In a sector note on Americas Insurance, the firm said it expects "strong and fairly resilient" insurer profitability for the next few years, but added that it believes we are "solidly in the softening phase" of the P&C insurance cycle, which leads to "increased capital supply and competition, which should drive a deceleration in growth/pricing/margins, that we think are broadly underappreciated within Street estimates."

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Keefe Bruyette

Meyer Shields

maintain

$250 -> $254

2026-01-06

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Meyer Shields

Price Target

$250 -> $254

2026-01-06

maintain

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Meyer Shields raised the firm's price target on Allstate to $254 from $250 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

BofA

NULL -> Buy

maintain

$300 -> $313

2026-01-05

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$300 -> $313

2026-01-05

maintain

NULL -> Buy

Reason

BofA raised the firm's price target on Allstate to $313 from $300 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. As in 2025, the pricing trends for most P&C insurance products do not appear positive, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While pricing for liability lines remains positive, it seems that loss costs are rising more steeply than prices, the analyst says, adding that personal auto rates are flattish, while some investors are expecting decline in response to high profitability. The firm added, however, that underwriter valuations hardly look expensive, even as fundamentals have tipped in the "wrong direction."

About ALL

The Allstate Corporation protects people from life’s uncertainties with a wide array of protection for autos, homes, electronic devices and identity theft. The Company’s products are available through Allstate agents, independent agents, major retailers, online and at the workplace. Its Allstate Protection segment offers private passenger auto, homeowners, other personal lines and commercial insurance. Its Run-off Property-Liability segment includes property and casualty insurance coverage. The Company’s Protection Services segment provides consumer product protection plans, device and mobile data collection services and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, roadside assistance, protection and insurance products and identity protection and restoration through Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Dealer Services, Allstate Roadside, Arity and Allstate Identity Protection.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.