AI Giants or Small-Cap Recovery? ETFs to Monitor as Morgan Stanley Targets S&P 500 at 7,800

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

AAPL+0.28%

XLK+0.74%

RSP+0.13%

Source: Benzinga

Updated: Nov 19 2025

0mins

Source: Benzinga

Morgan Stanley's Forecast: Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end 2026 forecast for the S&P 500 to 7,800, citing stronger earnings and productivity gains from AI adoption, while UBS expects the index to reach 7,500 by the end of 2025.
Market Dynamics: The bank predicts a two-speed market rally, with mega-cap tech stocks leading the AI boom and small caps potentially outperforming as the Fed cuts rates and business confidence improves.
ETF Opportunities: Key ETFs like the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are positioned to benefit from the expected surge in capital expenditures and small-cap growth.
Equal-Weight Strategies: Equal-weight ETFs, such as Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), may provide balanced exposure and reduce concentration risk, appealing to investors looking to capitalize on both tech leadership and small-cap recovery.

AAPL

$248.35+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on AAPL

Wall Street analysts forecast AAPL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AAPL is 299.69 USD with a low forecast of 230.00 USD and a high forecast of 350.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

32 Analyst Rating

19 Buy

11 Hold

2 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 247.650

Low

230.00

Averages

299.69

High

350.00

Current: 247.650

Low

230.00

Averages

299.69

High

350.00

BofA

upgrade

2026-01-21

New

Reason

BofA

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-21

New

upgrade

Reason

BofA analysts added Merck (MRK) to the firm's "US 1 List" and renewed Apple (AAPL) on the list. The list represents BofA's best investment ideas.

UBS

Neutral

maintain

$280

2026-01-20

New

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$280

2026-01-20

New

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS keeps a Neutral rating and $280 price target on Apple ahead of its earnings. The firm says the company is expected to see "solid demand" for the iPhone 17 series and also cites its checks that suggest a slight pull-in in the December quarter ahead of rising memory costs that should drive December quarter iPhone unit sell-in up about 12%-13% to 84.5M - 85.0M units, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While aspects of the iPhone 17 technical specs supported solid demand initially at launch, the risk of higher memory costs likely led to slightly higher production and sell-through than expected late in the quarter, leading to upside, the firm added.

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Citi

Atif Malik

Buy

downgrade

$330 -> $315

2026-01-20

New

Reason

Citi

Atif Malik

Price Target

$330 -> $315

2026-01-20

New

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Citi analyst Atif Malik lowered the firm's price target on Apple to $315 from $330 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm expects Apple to report a December quarter beat and in-line March quarter outlook. However, Citi reduced estimates for Apple to reflect higher memory component pricing risk. It still likes the shares for the advanced Siri and iPhone 18 foldable product cycles.

Evercore ISI

initiated

$330

2026-01-20

New

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$330

2026-01-20

New

initiated

Reason

Evercore ISI continues to have a positive stance on shares of Apple heading into the December-end quarter report due on January 29, telling investors that checks suggest that there's near-term upside to Street estimates. As such, the firm is adding Apple to its "Tactical Outperform" list ahead of earnings, adding that Apple remains the analyst's "Top Pick for CY26." The analyst, who views Apple as well positioned to sustain mid-to-high single digit top-line growth and double-digit EPS growth on the back of a strong product refresh cycle, has an Outperform rating and $330 price target on shares.

About AAPL

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. Its product categories include iPhone, Mac, iPad, and Wearables, Home and Accessories. Its software platforms include iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, visionOS, and tvOS. Its services include advertising, AppleCare, cloud services, digital content and payment services. The Company operates various platforms, including the App Store, that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games and podcasts. It also offers digital content through subscription-based services, including Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple News+, and Apple TV+. Its products include iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16, iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone SE, MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro, iPad Pro, iPad Air, AirPods, AirPods Pro, AirPods Max, Apple TV, Apple Vision Pro and others.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.