AI Giants or Small-Cap Recovery? ETFs to Monitor as Morgan Stanley Targets S&P 500 at 7,800
Morgan Stanley's Forecast: Morgan Stanley has raised its year-end 2026 forecast for the S&P 500 to 7,800, citing stronger earnings and productivity gains from AI adoption, while UBS expects the index to reach 7,500 by the end of 2025.
Market Dynamics: The bank predicts a two-speed market rally, with mega-cap tech stocks leading the AI boom and small caps potentially outperforming as the Fed cuts rates and business confidence improves.
ETF Opportunities: Key ETFs like the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are positioned to benefit from the expected surge in capital expenditures and small-cap growth.
Equal-Weight Strategies: Equal-weight ETFs, such as Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), may provide balanced exposure and reduce concentration risk, appealing to investors looking to capitalize on both tech leadership and small-cap recovery.
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- 50th Anniversary Plans: Apple Inc. is set to celebrate its 50th anniversary in 2026, with CEO Tim Cook indicating that the company is reflecting on its past and planning celebrations, which could attract more attention and enhance brand image.
- Historical Reflection and Future Focus: Cook mentioned that Apple is reviewing old photographs and products to commemorate its impact over the past 50 years, and while the company typically focuses on the future, this reflection may inspire new innovations.
- Stock Performance Analysis: Apple stock rose 11.5% in 2025 but underperformed against the S&P 500's 16.6%, with a year-to-date increase of 1.7% in 2026; despite reporting record quarterly results, investors are hoping for a more positive market reaction.
- New Product Expectations: As the 50th anniversary approaches, Apple may introduce new foldable smartphones, and combined with the celebrations, this could attract more consumer attention, further driving sales growth and solidifying market position.
- Record Funding Round: Anthropic announced the closure of a $30 billion funding round, achieving a post-money valuation of $380 billion, making it the second-largest private financing round in tech history, reflecting strong market demand and investor confidence in AI technology.
- Revenue Growth: The company's annualized revenue has surged to $14 billion, up from approximately $10 billion last year, indicating its success in the enterprise market, particularly driven by the popularity of the Claude Code tool, which has rapidly increased enterprise user adoption.
- Intensifying Competition: With Google planning to invest up to $185 billion in capital expenditures this year, Anthropic faces fierce market competition and must continue to invest in infrastructure and R&D to maintain its market position and technological edge.
- Strong Customer Demand: Anthropic's CFO noted that demand for Claude is increasing, particularly in enterprise-grade products, and this funding will support infrastructure expansion and product development, further solidifying its leadership position in the AI sector.
- Cisco's Stock Plunge: Despite beating earnings and revenue expectations, Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) saw its shares drop over 11%, marking the worst single-day decline since May 2022, as investors expressed concerns over profit durability.
- Tech Sector Decline: The iShares Tech-Expanded Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) fell 3.7%, revisiting lows from last week, indicating heightened sensitivity to AI disruption risks following Cisco's outlook.
- Small Caps Underperform: The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.7%, while both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.2%, with the Russell 2000 small-cap index sliding 2.4%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.
- Increased Volatility: The VIX surged 16%, as investors rotated into defensive sectors, with utilities and consumer staples outperforming, highlighting a risk-off tone in the market.
- AI Threat to Software Sector: Fundstrat's Tom Lee warns that AI is wreaking havoc on the $450 billion software sector, predicting significant job losses as software companies face existential threats, potentially leading to deflationary pressures.
- Changing Inflation Expectations: The core CPI is projected to drop to 2.52% in Friday's report, aligning with the 2017-2019 average, indicating a return to pre-COVID inflation levels, which may prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish monetary policy.
- Market Capital Flow: Lee notes that investors are rotating out of the Magnificent 7 into companies supplying AI infrastructure, such as energy providers and industrial manufacturers, which could trigger a 10-20% decline in the U.S. market.
- Crypto Market Bottom Signal: Despite challenges, Lee believes the crypto market shows signs of bottoming due to positive fundamentals, even as investors struggle with the decision to stay in crypto versus moving to stocks and gold.
- YouTube App Launch: The YouTube app is now available on the App Store for Vision Pro users, enabling access to 8K videos and supporting 3D, 360-degree, and VR180 formats, marking a significant expansion of Apple's virtual reality content ecosystem.
- Vision Pro Pricing and Market Response: Priced at $3,499, the Vision Pro has faced criticism for its high cost and limited battery life, although Apple has addressed some concerns with the launch of the upgraded M5 version.
- Virtual Reality Market Challenges: According to Counterpoint Research, the virtual reality headset market has shrunk by 14% year-on-year, with Meta's Quest holding about 80% market share, indicating a lack of consumer interest.
- Apple's Strategic Shift: Apple is reportedly shifting focus towards developing AI-powered smart glasses, potentially abandoning extensive upgrades for the Vision Pro, reflecting a cautious outlook on the virtual reality market's future.
- Tech Stock Pressure: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.52% and the Nasdaq 100 index dropped by 1.08% due to weakness in the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, indicating investor concerns that could dampen market confidence.
- Cisco Profit Warning: Cisco Systems forecasted that rising memory chip prices would erode profitability, leading to a more than 10% drop in its stock price, which may prompt investors to revise down their future performance expectations, negatively impacting overall market sentiment.
- Employment Data Impact: Initial US jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000, reflecting a slightly weaker labor market, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and lower market expectations for future rate cuts.
- Chip Demand Recovery: Sandisk's stock rose over 7% following Kioxia's forecast of strong demand for NAND memory chips, indicating growth potential in the AI infrastructure sector, which may create new investment opportunities for related companies.










