Marathon Petroleum Surges Amid Oil Price Spike from Iran Conflict
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 02 2026
0mins
Should l Buy MPC?
Source: CNBC
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) saw its stock price increase by 5.01%, reaching a 5-day high, as Brent crude oil prices surged over 9% following military actions in Iran.
The rise in MPC's stock is attributed to the significant increase in oil prices, which reached a new 52-week high of $79.40 per barrel. This surge is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, particularly following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Analysts are concerned that ongoing military actions could lead to further instability in oil supply, prompting a bullish sentiment in energy stocks.
The implications of this price movement suggest that Marathon Petroleum is well-positioned to benefit from the rising oil prices, as the market anticipates continued volatility in the energy sector due to geopolitical factors.
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Analyst Views on MPC
Wall Street analysts forecast MPC stock price to fall
14 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 215.230
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
Current: 215.230
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
About MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an integrated, downstream energy company. The Company’s segments include Refining & Marketing, Midstream and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and West Coast regions of the United States. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers domestically and internationally, to buyers on the spot market, and to independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores and distributes crude oil, refined products, including renewable diesel, and other hydrocarbon-based products, principally for the Refining & Marketing segment via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, and others. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets renewable diesel and distributes renewable products through its Midstream segment and third parties.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Surge in Energy Prices: The war in Iran has caused global oil prices to spike, with Brent crude rising from about $70 to $119.50 per barrel, while average gasoline prices hit $3.50 per gallon, a 19% increase in just two weeks, exacerbating economic pressures on consumers.
- Uncertain Long-term Impact: Economists predict that if the conflict persists, oil prices could average around $100 per barrel in 2026, potentially pushing CPI inflation to 3.5%, complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and increasing market uncertainty.
- Significant Tariff Effects: Prior to the Iran conflict, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration were a major inflation driver, with the current effective tariff rate at 10.5%, the highest since 1943, leading economists to believe that consumers will struggle to find relief from inflation in the short term.
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- Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices surged to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday due to escalating conflict, although they have since retreated, with U.S. WTI crude trading at $83.8 and global benchmark Brent at $87.9, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Iranian Naval Capability: Despite CNN's report of Iran laying a few mines recently in the Strait, Iran retains over 80% of its small boats and minelayers, potentially laying hundreds of mines, which could further escalate regional tensions.
- U.S. Navy Response Strategy: President Trump stated he ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance for all maritime trade through the Gulf, although the U.S. Navy has declined shipping industry requests for escort due to high attack risks, potentially affecting energy transport security.
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- Significant Economic Impact: Trump stated that the project will deliver billions of dollars in economic impact, further driving the domestic energy sector's growth and creating numerous job opportunities in related industries.
- Environmental Commitment: The refinery is set to be the cleanest in the world, reflecting a commitment to environmental sustainability while showcasing the U.S.'s strategic shift towards sustainable energy production.
See More
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- Treasury Yield Dynamics: The current yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note stands at 4.156%, with the 2-year yield at 3.592% and the 3-month yield at 3.686%, indicating a cautious market outlook on future interest rate movements.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: Oil prices have risen due to reports of Iran laying anti-ship mines in the Strait of Hormuz, with West Texas Intermediate crude gaining 30% since the onset of the conflict and Brent crude up over 20%, despite overall declines in the commodity market.
- Market Focus: Campbell's is scheduled to report quarterly results on Wednesday morning, having seen its stock fall 12% over the past three months and more than 43% from its peak a year ago, making its performance a key point of interest for investors.
See More
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- Japanese Stock Performance: Japan's Nikkei 225 index is poised to climb, with Chicago futures at 54,855, significantly up from the previous close of 54,248.39, reflecting market expectations for economic recovery.
- Hong Kong Market Dynamics: Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures are at 25,936, slightly down from the last close of 25,959.9, indicating a cautious stance amid geopolitical risks.
- Oil Price Fluctuations Impact: After spiking to nearly $120 per barrel on Monday, oil prices have retreated, with U.S. crude up 3.24% to $86.15 per barrel, suggesting a easing of market fears regarding the Iran conflict.
See More
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- Gas Price Surge: Gas prices in Los Angeles have risen over 60 cents in a month according to AAA, creating economic pressure on voters that could impact GOP performance in the upcoming elections.
- Political Dilemma: Republican House leaders are meeting in Miami to strategize legislative agendas amidst high gas prices, although they express support for President Trump's optimistic outlook on the conflict.
- Voter Concerns: Polls indicate that about 29% of Americans approve of the war in Iran, while a majority expect gas prices to continue rising, presenting a significant political challenge for Republicans.
- Energy Policy Debate: Representative Brett Guthrie emphasizes the need to explain the rationale behind the Iran war to help the public understand the strategic reasons for high gas prices, despite widespread voter dissatisfaction.
See More
