Trump Administration Initiates $166 Billion Tariff Refunds Following Supreme Court Ruling
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy FDX?
Source: stocktwits
- Tariff Refund Initiation: The Trump administration is set to initiate $166 billion in tariff refunds following a Supreme Court ruling, impacting over 53 million shipments and potentially alleviating financial pressure on importers.
- Lawsuit Surge: Major U.S. importers, including FedEx, Costco, and UPS, are facing lawsuits from consumers seeking compensation for increased costs due to tariffs, which could negatively affect these companies' market performance.
- Market Reaction: Following the acceptance of tariff refund claims, FedEx shares surged to record highs, gaining 35% year-to-date, while Costco shares also rose 17%, indicating a positive market response to the refund news.
- Retailer Strategies: FedEx has committed to returning tariff refunds to customers, while Costco plans to pass on refunds through lower prices and better values, showcasing differing strategies among retailers in response to tariff pressures.
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Analyst Views on FDX
Wall Street analysts forecast FDX stock price to fall
20 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 403.310
Low
210.00
Averages
315.05
High
365.00
Current: 403.310
Low
210.00
Averages
315.05
High
365.00
About FDX
FedEx Corporation provides customers and businesses with a portfolio of transportation, e-commerce, and business services. The Company offers integrated business solutions utilizing its flexible and efficient global network. Its segments include Federal Express, FedEx Freight, and Corporate, other, and eliminations. Federal Express segment includes express transportation, small-package ground delivery, and freight transportation, and it also operates combined sales, marketing, administrative, and information-technology functions in shared service operations for United States customers. FedEx Freight segment includes FedEx Freight (LTL freight transportation) and FedEx Custom Critical (time-critical transportation). Corporate, other, and elimination segments include FedEx Dataworks, Inc. (FedEx Dataworks), FedEx Office and Print Services, Inc. (FedEx Office), and FedEx Logistics, Inc. (FedEx Logistics). FedEx Logistics offers customs brokerage, specialty transportation, and others.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- High Margin Business: The high profit margins in healthcare logistics, particularly for expensive medications with margins in the mid-to-high teens, are attracting UPS's focus, significantly aiding its transformation as it moves away from low-margin e-commerce deliveries.
- Historic Revenue Achievement: UPS reported a record $11.2 billion in healthcare revenue for 2025, accounting for nearly 13% of total revenue, with healthcare surpassing 14% in Q1 2026, demonstrating rapid growth in this segment.
- Strategic Transformation: Under CEO Tome's
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- Market Share Growth: UPS CEO Carol Tomé indicated that despite UPS deliberately releasing some volume to the market, FedEx still achieved a 1.2% market share growth, demonstrating its resilience and market appeal amidst competition.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Deutsche Bank analyst Richa Harnain noted that FedEx has experienced double-digit revenue growth in its U.S. priority, international priority, and international priority freight segments, indicating strong performance in highly profitable areas.
- Upgraded Investment Rating: Deutsche Bank has assigned a 'Buy' rating to FedEx with a price target of $479, reflecting confidence in its future growth potential, especially in light of UPS's market strategy.
- Outstanding Stock Performance: FedEx shares have surged 35.1% year-to-date, significantly outperforming UPS's 4.8% gain, showcasing market recognition of its business model and profitability, further solidifying its leadership position in the logistics industry.
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- Tariff Refund Commitment: FedEx and UPS announced they would refund customers for tariffs collected illegally by the U.S. government, demonstrating a commitment to customer interests and potentially enhancing customer trust.
- Surge in Refund Claims: Following the launch of the refund system, thousands of companies rushed to file claims, involving approximately $166 billion in tariffs, reflecting strong market response and demand for this policy.
- UPS Tariff Revenue: UPS CEO Carol Tome stated that the company had collected about $5 billion in tariffs from customers, indicating the financial impact of tariff policies and potential implications for future cash flow.
- Collaboration with Government: Tome emphasized that UPS would work with Customs and Border Protection to apply for refunds rather than pursue litigation, suggesting a strategic approach to resolving issues that may influence its relationship with the government.
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- Valuation Leadership: UPS earns an A- valuation grade among major air freight and logistics stocks, indicating its competitive pricing relative to fundamentals, which reflects market confidence in its future growth potential.
- Mixed Earnings Report: Although UPS reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.07, surpassing the $1.02 consensus, total revenue fell 1.4% year-over-year to $21.2 billion, and the lack of an upgrade to full-year guidance led to a roughly 3% drop in premarket shares.
- Peer Comparison: Among peers, GXO Logistics follows with a B- rating, while Hub Group and FedEx are rated C and C- respectively, highlighting UPS's valuation advantage, even as FedEx holds a strong buy quant rating of 4.92.
- Market Reaction: Despite UPS exceeding earnings expectations, the stock price declined due to the absence of full-year guidance, indicating a cautious investor sentiment regarding future growth.
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