Three Manufacturing Stocks Gaining from Supply Chain Changes Through 2026
Global Supply Chain Changes: The global supply chain is expected to undergo significant changes by 2026 due to geopolitical tensions, rising costs, and a shift towards domestic manufacturing and technological advancements.
Caterpillar Inc.: Caterpillar is diversifying its supply chain by building a flexible network of suppliers and expanding its U.S. operations, which has led to a 54.6% stock surge over the past year.
EnerSys: EnerSys is realigning its manufacturing by closing its Mexican plant and shifting production to Kentucky, focusing on supplier diversification and sustainability, resulting in a 56.2% increase in stock value.
Honeywell International Inc.: Honeywell is reducing reliance on single suppliers and regions by implementing dual-sourcing strategies and offering financial support to suppliers, although its stock has seen a 13.2% decline over the past year.
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- Visa Financial Performance: Visa reported $10.9 billion in revenue for Q1 FY26 with a net profit margin of 53.7%, establishing a solid foundation for future dividend increases, having raised its dividend by 14% at the end of FY25.
- Shareholder Returns: In Q1, Visa distributed $5.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, nearly matching its $5.9 billion net income, indicating the company's flexibility to increase dividends amid strong profitability.
- Caterpillar Market Position: As a leader in the construction industry with over 100 years of experience, Caterpillar is positioned in a multi-year megatrend, particularly benefiting from soaring demand in AI infrastructure, leading to a 35% stock increase year-to-date.
- Performance Growth and Returns: Caterpillar achieved an 18% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 FY25, ending with a record backlog of $51 billion, while returning $7.9 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, alongside a 7% dividend increase last year.
- New Investment Moves: Bridgewater Associates acquired 62,200 shares of Caterpillar (CAT), 156,300 shares of Dell Technologies (DELL), and 23,500 shares of Spotify (SPOT) in Q4 2025, indicating confidence in these companies which may drive their stock prices higher.
- Position Adjustments: The firm closed its holdings in AT&T (T), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), and Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), reflecting a cautious outlook on these companies, which could impact their market performance.
- Increased Stakes: Bridgewater raised its stake in Nvidia (NVDA) from 2.51 million shares to 3.87 million shares and Amazon (AMZN) from 1.12 million to 1.95 million shares, demonstrating ongoing optimism in tech stocks that may enhance its investment portfolio in the sector.
- Trimmed Holdings: The fund reduced its positions in Salesforce (CRM) from 2.01 million shares to 1.93 million and Microsoft (MSFT) from 1.10 million to 984,000 shares, indicating a cautious stance on future growth prospects which may affect stock price stability.
- Market Uncertainty: The stock market faced challenges last week due to unresolved questions affecting investor confidence.
- Impact of Lack of Answers: The absence of clear answers contributed to volatility and uncertainty in market performance.
- Swift Market Reaction: Steel and aluminum producers fell by 5-6% in early trading as investors began to price in the potential for increased foreign competition and diminished domestic pricing power, indicating market sensitivity to policy changes.
- Impact of Tariff Protection: Tariffs have provided a cushion for U.S. producers, supporting margins and limiting cheaper imports; if rolled back, this cushion thins, potentially compressing profit margins.
- Potential Cost Relief Opportunity: While metal producers' stocks declined, this shift hints at potential benefits for automakers, machinery manufacturers, and construction firms, as lower steel and aluminum input costs could improve downstream margins.
- Significance of Policy Changes: Policy shifts can reshape entire sectors overnight, with tariffs having defined the earnings power of U.S. steel and aluminum companies in recent years, and any hint of reversal could introduce significant market volatility.
- Regulatory Termination Impact: The Trump administration officially terminates the 2009 'endangerment finding,' effectively dismantling the legal foundation for federal climate regulations, which immediately eliminates greenhouse gas emission standards for cars and trucks, signaling the end of the government-led push for mandatory electric vehicle transitions.
- Tesla Revenue Risk: With the EPA losing authority to enforce tailpipe standards, Tesla's reliance on selling billions in regulatory credits will vanish, and analysts estimate this rollback could erase margin revenue for Tesla as competitors no longer need to pay for compliance.
- Traditional Manufacturers Benefit: Traditional automakers like Ford and General Motors are projected to save over $2,400 per vehicle, providing them with an immediate competitive advantage to pivot capital from high-cost EV mandates back into their high-margin gas-powered SUV and truck lineups.
- Climate Policy Shift: The EPA administrator announced the end of federal credits for automatic start-stop technology, marking the conclusion of 'climate participation trophies' for manufacturers, emphasizing that there will be no more incentives for technologies that cause cars to stall at red lights.
- Diverse ETF Themes: Fundstrat's GRNY ETF launched in November 2024, encompasses various investment themes including value investing, despite a year-to-date decline of 0.32%, it has risen 18.31% over the past 52 weeks, indicating some market appeal.
- Overlap with Dow Jones: The GRNY ETF shares eight stocks with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, including well-known tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia, with respective weights of 2.55%, 2.16%, 2.11%, and 2.51% in GRNY, reflecting a similarity in investment strategies.
- Differing Investment Styles: The GRNY ETF employs a rules-based stock selection process focusing on stocks that meet two or more key themes, with current themes including PMI recovery, energy stocks, and cybersecurity, aimed at attracting millennial investors.
- Market Performance Comparison: In contrast to the GRNY ETF, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF has increased by 3.46% year-to-date and 12.08% over the past 52 weeks, showcasing the relative strength of Dow components, which may impact investor confidence in GRNY.










