Tax Season Refund Growth Boosts Multiple Stocks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AXP?
Source: CNBC
- Tax Refund Increase: As of February 13, the average tax refund stands at $2,476, reflecting a 14.2% year-over-year increase, which is expected to positively impact retail stocks, particularly enhancing spending power for low-income households.
- Stimulus Measures Impact: The provisions from the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' could provide an average of about $1,000 in stimulus per household, primarily from increased state and local tax deduction caps and a new deduction for overtime pay, leading to larger tax refunds and reduced tax payments.
- Retail Stock Benefits: Analysts highlight Ross Stores as a buy-rated stock that could benefit from increased tax refunds, given its ability to achieve outsized growth during economic volatility and significant new store growth potential, with shares surging nearly 12% this year.
- Consumer Spending Trends: Over a third of consumers plan to use their tax refunds to pay down debt, while 13% intend to save, which could positively impact stocks like Synchrony Financial, with analysts projecting a 25% upside potential from current levels.
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Analyst Views on AXP
Wall Street analysts forecast AXP stock price to rise
21 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 305.380
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
Current: 305.380
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
About AXP
American Express Company is a global payments and premium lifestyle brand powered by technology. Its card-issuing, merchant-acquiring and card network businesses offer products and services to a broad range of customers, including consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies and large corporations around the world. Its range of products and services includes credit and charge cards and complementary products and services, including travel, dining, lifestyle and expense management products and services; banking and other payment and financing products and services, including deposits and non-card lending; merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services, and network services. These products and services are offered through various channels, including mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, customer referral programs, third-party service providers, and business partners.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Cash Reserve Status: Berkshire Hathaway ended 2025 with a cash reserve of $373.3 billion, down from $381.6 billion in Q3, yet still demonstrating strong financial strength, indicating the company's resilience amid market fluctuations.
- Stock Trading Dynamics: The company has been a net seller for the 13th consecutive quarter, primarily raising funds through sales of Apple and Bank of America stocks, reflecting its ongoing focus on these core holdings and risk management strategies.
- Buyback Strategy Adjustment: Although the company has not repurchased shares for six straight quarters, it began buying back stock earlier this month, indicating a reassessment of current stock prices, particularly as the price-to-book ratio has decreased from 1.8 to 1.4.
- CEO Strategic Outlook: New CEO Abel emphasized patience in managing the cash reserves in his annual letter, stating the need for disciplined investment timing while also highlighting the importance of risk management beyond its large insurance operations.
See More
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- Cash Reserve Status: Berkshire ended 2025 with a cash reserve of $373.3 billion, down from $381.6 billion in Q3, yet still demonstrating strong financial strength that allows for flexibility in future investment opportunities.
- Stock Trading Strategy: The company has been a net seller for the 13th consecutive quarter, primarily raising funds through sales of Apple and Bank of America stocks, indicating a cautious approach to these holdings, while Apple remains its largest investment, reflecting stability in its long-term investment strategy.
- Stock Buyback Decision: Berkshire has not repurchased any shares for six consecutive quarters, although it has recently begun to reconsider its buyback strategy, indicating a more cautious approach to assessing the intrinsic value of its stock, especially with the current P/B ratio at 1.4.
- Impact of Management Changes: New CEO Abel emphasizes the importance of patience and risk management, and while investors express frustration over the company's inaction, he believes that maintaining discipline and a prudent investment strategy is wise in a rapidly evolving technological landscape.
See More
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- Strength of Apple and American Express: Apple and American Express account for 19.1% and 14.6% of Berkshire's portfolio, respectively, both regarded as reliable long-term investments, with analysts projecting revenue and EPS growth rates of 8% and 11% from 2025 to 2028 for Apple.
- American Express's Resilience: American Express's business model insulates it from interest rate fluctuations, with expected revenue and EPS growth rates of 9% and 15% respectively over the next few years, highlighting its potential as a quality investment.
- Challenges for Kraft Heinz: Despite Kraft Heinz accounting for 2.6% of Berkshire's portfolio, its poor performance amid health food trends has led analysts to predict continued revenue decline, indicating significant investment risks through 2028.
See More
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- Dividend Growth: On March 2, American Express's Board of Directors approved a 16% increase in its quarterly dividend from $0.82 to $0.95, reflecting the company's commitment to rewarding shareholders amid strong financial performance.
- Doubling Dividends: Over the past five years, American Express has increased its dividend from $0.43 per quarter to $0.95, representing a 121% rise and an average annual growth rate exceeding 17%, although the latest increase is slower than its historical average.
- Market Performance: American Express stock has doubled in value over the past five years, with net income reaching $10.7 billion in 2025, a 45% increase from $7.4 billion in 2022, indicating significant improvement in profitability.
- Investment Appeal: Despite a dividend yield of approximately 1.3%, slightly above the S&P 500's 1.2%, American Express remains an attractive option for low-risk investors seeking quality dividend stocks due to its consistent dividend growth and strong financial results.
See More
Three Major Companies from Different Industries Increase Dividends by 15% or More
Dividend Increases: Major companies across financial, industrial, and technology sectors have announced significant dividend increases, with some firms raising dividends by over 15%, reflecting strong performance and confidence in future growth.
AI Demand Impact: Companies benefiting from artificial intelligence demand are seeing substantial revenue growth, with one firm expecting to double its AI revenue in the upcoming fiscal year, leading to a 20% dividend increase.
Stock Performance: American Express and Waste Management have shown solid stock performance, with American Express experiencing a three-year total return exceeding 70%, while Waste Management has been able to pass on inflationary costs to customers, enhancing margins.
Dell's Growth and Dividends: Dell Technologies has reported impressive growth, with a nearly 300% increase in stock value over three years, and plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 20%, reflecting strong demand for its AI-optimized services.
See More
