Rising Gas Prices Boost Costco Sales
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy COST?
Source: CNBC
- Impact of Rising Oil Prices: With the Iran war ongoing, oil prices have surged to a four-year high, pushing the national average for regular unleaded gasoline to $3.91 per gallon, which, while below the all-time high of $5.02 in April 2022, has driven consumers to Costco for cheaper fuel, thereby increasing in-store traffic.
- Costco's Value Proposition: Costco typically offers gas prices at a 9-cent discount compared to local competitors and a 24-cent discount versus the state average, making this price advantage particularly significant as fuel costs rise, attracting more bargain-seeking consumers and enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Customer Traffic Analysis: According to Gordon Haskett's analysis, visits to Costco gas stations sharply increased in the week ending March 7, and continued to accelerate as prices rose, with data indicating that 50% of gas customers also enter Costco stores, further driving sales growth.
- Economic Impact and Outlook: While rising gas prices may exert financial pressure on consumers, leading them to cut back on non-essentials, Costco tends to perform better during economic downturns due to its stable pricing strategy, with analysts optimistic about its future stock price, setting a target of $1,100 per share, representing a 13% upside from current levels.
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Analyst Views on COST
Wall Street analysts forecast COST stock price to rise
24 Analyst Rating
19 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 999.890
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
Current: 999.890
Low
769.00
Averages
1061
High
1205
About COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation (Costco) operates membership warehouses and e-commerce sites that offer a selection of nationally branded and private-label products in a wide range of categories. The Company buys the majority of its merchandise directly from suppliers and route it to cross-docking consolidation points (depots) or directly to its warehouses. It operates 891 warehouses, including 614 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 108 in Canada, 40 in Mexico, 35 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 19 in Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, seven in China, five in Spain, two in France, and one each in Iceland, New Zealand and Sweden. It also operates e-commerce sites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia. The Company provides wide selection of merchandise, plus the convenience of specialty departments and exclusive member services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Costco and FedEx Face Legal Pressure Over Tariff Refunds
- Increase in Legal Suits: With the U.S. Supreme Court striking down a batch of tariffs, billions in tariff refunds are set to flow back to U.S. businesses, leading to legal pressure on Costco and FedEx as consumers argue they should share in these refunds, highlighting market concerns over corporate pricing strategies.
- Refund Application Process: Despite the substantial refund amounts, companies must file claims through a new government system, which has just begun, potentially taking months to process and impacting companies' cash flow and short-term financial performance.
- Strategic Differences Between Costco and FedEx: FedEx has stated it will directly return tariff refunds to customers, while Costco opts for a strategy of lowering prices and enhancing value over time, indicating a divergence that could affect brand perception and competitive positioning in the market.
- Consumer Impact: As businesses may have absorbed some tariff costs or passed them on through higher prices, the question of refund allocation has sparked widespread discussion, likely leading to more lawsuits in the future, which could influence corporate operational strategies and market dynamics.
See More
US Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs, Billions in Refunds Expected
- Refund System Launch: The US Supreme Court's February decision to strike down Trump's IEEPA tariffs is expected to lead to refunds of up to $166-$175 billion for approximately 330,000 importers, requiring businesses to apply through the new CAPE system, indicating government support for importers.
- Simplified Application Process: The CAPE system will process claims via the ACE Portal of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, with Phase 1 focusing on straightforward cases, and refunds expected to be issued electronically within 60 to 90 days, enhancing liquidity for businesses.
- Ongoing Trade Dispute: The Trump administration is seeking to reinstate IEEPA tariffs under different legal frameworks, leveraging Sections 122 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to increase negotiation leverage, highlighting ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
- Consumer Impact: While some businesses absorbed tariff costs, consumers have no refund mechanism, leading to class action lawsuits against companies like Costco and FedEx; FedEx plans to return refunds to customers, while Costco aims to provide value through lower prices, reflecting differing corporate strategies in response to tariff refunds.
See More
Consumer Staples Companies Resilient to Market Volatility
- Coca-Cola's Global Reach: Coca-Cola boasts over 200 beverage varieties consumed at 2.2 billion servings daily, with a stellar adjusted operating margin of 31.2% supporting its 64 consecutive years of dividend growth, showcasing strong brand power and profitability, although its total return of 123% over the past decade lags behind the S&P 500's 300%.
- Costco's Steady Growth: With 924 locations worldwide, Costco's low prices and membership model enable it to achieve consistent same-store sales growth amid economic fluctuations, delivering a total return of 182% over the past five years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, despite a high P/E ratio of 51.5 indicating strong market favor.
- Procter & Gamble's Resilience: Procter & Gamble's essential products like laundry detergent and toothpaste maintain steady demand during downturns, with only a 3.3% revenue dip during the 2009 recession and consistent quarterly growth during the pandemic, highlighted by 136 years of uninterrupted dividends and a total return of 127% over the past decade.
- Walmart's Market Dominance: Walmart generated $706 billion in net sales for fiscal 2026 with 10,900 stores globally, achieving a 4.5% same-store sales increase and 53 years of dividend growth, demonstrating strong competitive strength in recessions, although its current P/E of 45.7 suggests a high valuation.
See More
Global Beverage Giant's Stable Performance
- Coca-Cola's Profitability: Coca-Cola achieved an adjusted operating margin of 31.2% in fiscal 2025, enabling the company to increase dividends for 64 consecutive years, demonstrating its strong resilience during economic downturns.
- Costco's Market Performance: Costco's total return of 182% over the past five years significantly outperformed the S&P 500, although its current P/E ratio of 51.5 indicates that investors are optimistic about its future growth potential.
- Procter & Gamble's Stable Demand: Procter & Gamble experienced only a 3.3% revenue dip during the 2009 recession and reported growth in every quarter during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, highlighting the essential nature of its products in any economic climate.
- Walmart's Sales Growth: Walmart generated $706 billion in net sales in fiscal 2026 with 10,900 stores worldwide, and despite a P/E ratio of 45.7, its stock price surged 167% over the past five years, reflecting strong market performance.
See More
Costco and MercadoLibre: Long-Term Investment Opportunities
- Costco's Resilience: Despite increasing economic uncertainty, Costco maintains a membership retention rate above 90%, providing stability to its revenues and cash flow, with net sales increasing by 9.1% year-over-year in the second quarter, showcasing strong market performance.
- Global Expansion Strategy: With over 600 warehouses in the U.S. and nearly 300 abroad, Costco's ongoing global expansion not only enhances its market share but also boosts brand influence, further solidifying its leadership position in the retail sector.
- MercadoLibre's Ecosystem: MercadoLibre's financial services platform, Mercado Pago, saw a 90% year-over-year growth in its credit portfolio as of Q4 2025, indicating strong growth potential in the Latin American fintech sector, while overall net revenue surged 45% in the last quarter of last year, reaching $8.76 billion.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Although MercadoLibre's stock has fallen 7% year-to-date, its forward P/E ratio slightly above 30 and analysts' bullish consensus on its ability to build an ecosystem throughout Latin America suggest immense long-term growth opportunities.
See More
Costco and MercadoLibre's Growth Potential
- High Membership Renewal: Costco boasts a remarkable 90% membership renewal rate, providing a solid level of consistency and visibility in revenue and cash flow, ensuring sustained growth amid market volatility.
- Significant Sales Growth: In the second quarter, Costco reported a 9.1% year-over-year increase in net sales, while expanding globally with over 600 warehouses in the U.S. and nearly 300 abroad, demonstrating its robust market expansion capabilities.
- Rapid Growth of MercadoLibre: MercadoLibre's net revenue surged 45% in the last quarter of the previous year, reaching $8.76 billion, while its financial services platform, Mercado Pago, saw a 90% year-over-year growth in its credit portfolio, showcasing strong growth potential in the Latin American market.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite a 7% decline in MercadoLibre's stock year-to-date, its forward P/E ratio slightly above 30 indicates strong long-term growth prospects as the market remains bullish on its efforts to build an ecosystem throughout Latin America, highlighting its significant investment appeal.
See More
Costco and FedEx Face Legal Pressure Over Tariff Refunds
- Increase in Legal Suits: With the U.S. Supreme Court striking down a batch of tariffs, billions in tariff refunds are set to flow back to U.S. businesses, leading to legal pressure on Costco and FedEx as consumers argue they should share in these refunds, highlighting market concerns over corporate pricing strategies.
- Refund Application Process: Despite the substantial refund amounts, companies must file claims through a new government system, which has just begun, potentially taking months to process and impacting companies' cash flow and short-term financial performance.
- Strategic Differences Between Costco and FedEx: FedEx has stated it will directly return tariff refunds to customers, while Costco opts for a strategy of lowering prices and enhancing value over time, indicating a divergence that could affect brand perception and competitive positioning in the market.
- Consumer Impact: As businesses may have absorbed some tariff costs or passed them on through higher prices, the question of refund allocation has sparked widespread discussion, likely leading to more lawsuits in the future, which could influence corporate operational strategies and market dynamics.
See More
US Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs, Billions in Refunds Expected
- Refund System Launch: The US Supreme Court's February decision to strike down Trump's IEEPA tariffs is expected to lead to refunds of up to $166-$175 billion for approximately 330,000 importers, requiring businesses to apply through the new CAPE system, indicating government support for importers.
- Simplified Application Process: The CAPE system will process claims via the ACE Portal of U.S. Customs and Border Protection, with Phase 1 focusing on straightforward cases, and refunds expected to be issued electronically within 60 to 90 days, enhancing liquidity for businesses.
- Ongoing Trade Dispute: The Trump administration is seeking to reinstate IEEPA tariffs under different legal frameworks, leveraging Sections 122 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to increase negotiation leverage, highlighting ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
- Consumer Impact: While some businesses absorbed tariff costs, consumers have no refund mechanism, leading to class action lawsuits against companies like Costco and FedEx; FedEx plans to return refunds to customers, while Costco aims to provide value through lower prices, reflecting differing corporate strategies in response to tariff refunds.
See More
Consumer Staples Companies Resilient to Market Volatility
- Coca-Cola's Global Reach: Coca-Cola boasts over 200 beverage varieties consumed at 2.2 billion servings daily, with a stellar adjusted operating margin of 31.2% supporting its 64 consecutive years of dividend growth, showcasing strong brand power and profitability, although its total return of 123% over the past decade lags behind the S&P 500's 300%.
- Costco's Steady Growth: With 924 locations worldwide, Costco's low prices and membership model enable it to achieve consistent same-store sales growth amid economic fluctuations, delivering a total return of 182% over the past five years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, despite a high P/E ratio of 51.5 indicating strong market favor.
- Procter & Gamble's Resilience: Procter & Gamble's essential products like laundry detergent and toothpaste maintain steady demand during downturns, with only a 3.3% revenue dip during the 2009 recession and consistent quarterly growth during the pandemic, highlighted by 136 years of uninterrupted dividends and a total return of 127% over the past decade.
- Walmart's Market Dominance: Walmart generated $706 billion in net sales for fiscal 2026 with 10,900 stores globally, achieving a 4.5% same-store sales increase and 53 years of dividend growth, demonstrating strong competitive strength in recessions, although its current P/E of 45.7 suggests a high valuation.
See More
Global Beverage Giant's Stable Performance
- Coca-Cola's Profitability: Coca-Cola achieved an adjusted operating margin of 31.2% in fiscal 2025, enabling the company to increase dividends for 64 consecutive years, demonstrating its strong resilience during economic downturns.
- Costco's Market Performance: Costco's total return of 182% over the past five years significantly outperformed the S&P 500, although its current P/E ratio of 51.5 indicates that investors are optimistic about its future growth potential.
- Procter & Gamble's Stable Demand: Procter & Gamble experienced only a 3.3% revenue dip during the 2009 recession and reported growth in every quarter during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, highlighting the essential nature of its products in any economic climate.
- Walmart's Sales Growth: Walmart generated $706 billion in net sales in fiscal 2026 with 10,900 stores worldwide, and despite a P/E ratio of 45.7, its stock price surged 167% over the past five years, reflecting strong market performance.
See More
Costco and MercadoLibre: Long-Term Investment Opportunities
- Costco's Resilience: Despite increasing economic uncertainty, Costco maintains a membership retention rate above 90%, providing stability to its revenues and cash flow, with net sales increasing by 9.1% year-over-year in the second quarter, showcasing strong market performance.
- Global Expansion Strategy: With over 600 warehouses in the U.S. and nearly 300 abroad, Costco's ongoing global expansion not only enhances its market share but also boosts brand influence, further solidifying its leadership position in the retail sector.
- MercadoLibre's Ecosystem: MercadoLibre's financial services platform, Mercado Pago, saw a 90% year-over-year growth in its credit portfolio as of Q4 2025, indicating strong growth potential in the Latin American fintech sector, while overall net revenue surged 45% in the last quarter of last year, reaching $8.76 billion.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Although MercadoLibre's stock has fallen 7% year-to-date, its forward P/E ratio slightly above 30 and analysts' bullish consensus on its ability to build an ecosystem throughout Latin America suggest immense long-term growth opportunities.
See More
Costco and MercadoLibre's Growth Potential
- High Membership Renewal: Costco boasts a remarkable 90% membership renewal rate, providing a solid level of consistency and visibility in revenue and cash flow, ensuring sustained growth amid market volatility.
- Significant Sales Growth: In the second quarter, Costco reported a 9.1% year-over-year increase in net sales, while expanding globally with over 600 warehouses in the U.S. and nearly 300 abroad, demonstrating its robust market expansion capabilities.
- Rapid Growth of MercadoLibre: MercadoLibre's net revenue surged 45% in the last quarter of the previous year, reaching $8.76 billion, while its financial services platform, Mercado Pago, saw a 90% year-over-year growth in its credit portfolio, showcasing strong growth potential in the Latin American market.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Despite a 7% decline in MercadoLibre's stock year-to-date, its forward P/E ratio slightly above 30 indicates strong long-term growth prospects as the market remains bullish on its efforts to build an ecosystem throughout Latin America, highlighting its significant investment appeal.
See More
