Nutrien downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 24 2024
0mins
Should l Buy NTR?
- Analyst Downgrade: Wells Fargo analyst Richard Garchitorena has downgraded Nutrien's rating from Overweight to Equal Weight.
- Revised Price Target: The price target for Nutrien has been reduced from $62 to $50.
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Analyst Views on NTR
Wall Street analysts forecast NTR stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 73.690
Low
58.00
Averages
66.08
High
76.00
Current: 73.690
Low
58.00
Averages
66.08
High
76.00
About NTR
Nutrien Ltd. is a global provider of crop inputs and services. The Company operates a network of production, distribution and ag retail facilities. The Company’s segments include Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail), Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate. Its downstream Retail segment distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seed and merchandise, and provides agronomic application services and solutions, including the services offered through Nutrien Financial. The Retail segment also manufactures and distributes proprietary products and provides services directly to farmers through a network of retail locations in North America, South America and Australia. Its upstream Potash, Nitrogen and Phosphate segments are differentiated by the chemical nutrient contained in the products that each segment produces and are supported by midstream activities, which include the global sales, freight, transportation and distribution of its products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Supply Chain Risks: Fitch's BMI Research anticipates that the geopolitical disruptions from the Middle East conflict will pose significant challenges to fertilizer, natural gas, and sulfur flows, particularly impacting China and Morocco as spring planting approaches, limiting farmers' purchasing flexibility.
- U.S. Market Protection: While the U.S. imports fertilizer, primarily potash from Canada, it remains insulated from direct Middle Eastern supply disruptions affecting nitrogen fertilizer trade, thereby reducing immediate risks to U.S. agricultural production.
- Global Supply Shortages: Sub-Saharan Africa faces heightened supply risks due to structural constraints, while Brazil's vulnerability critically hinges on the timing of supply chain normalization relative to its Q2-Q3 purchasing window, potentially leading to shortages beyond mid-year.
- Price Volatility and Investment Opportunities: The surge in fertilizer prices triggered by the Iran conflict is providing a near-term windfall for producers, with Bank of America advising selective investment, identifying CF Industries as the biggest beneficiary of rising nitrogen prices.
See More
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- Industry Struggles: After attracting billions in venture capital, vertical farming is now facing survival challenges, with notable startups like Bowery Farming and AppHarvest shutting down, leaving only a fraction of early entrants operational, highlighting the high risks and uncertainties in the sector.
- Cost Pressures: Vertical farms require expensive infrastructure such as warehouses, lighting, and custom systems, and they struggle against traditional agriculture, which operates with higher efficiency and thinner margins, leading to squeezed profitability across the industry.
- Demand Misestimation: Many companies overestimated market demand by focusing on premium products like lettuce, facing strong competition and limited pricing power, prompting some to pivot towards niche crops like strawberries to attract customers willing to pay more.
- Strategic Shifts: Survivors in the industry are adjusting their strategies by moving towards smaller, focused operations and forming partnerships with institutions like schools and hospitals, replacing earlier ambitions of mass-market disruption, indicating a role as a complement rather than a replacement for traditional agriculture.
See More
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Impact of Rising Gas Prices: Soaring gas prices serve as a stark reminder of the ongoing war in Iran, affecting not only crude oil but also crucial commodities like fertilizers, which are heavily reliant on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Fertilizer Supply Chain Disruption: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to significant disruptions in the global fertilizer supply, with estimates indicating that around 30-35% of plant nutrients depend on this contested waterway for transit.
Market Reactions and Price Increases: Fertilizer prices have surged, with urea reaching as high as $680 per metric ton, and the supply shock is already being felt in markets, particularly affecting the upcoming 2026 spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere.
Investment Opportunities in Fertilizer Stocks: Companies that produce fertilizers, particularly those outside the Persian Gulf, are positioned to benefit from the current market chaos, with analysts recommending stocks like Nutrien Ltd. as a safe investment amid rising prices.
See More
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- Executive Buy Signal: Builders FirstSource's director Paul Levy disclosed a purchase of 50,000 shares at $87.73 each in a regulatory filing, totaling $4.4 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's future growth and potentially attracting more investor interest.
- Dividend Increase and Buyback Plan: Qualcomm announced an increase in its quarterly cash dividend from 89 cents to 92 cents per share and approved a $20 billion stock repurchase authorization, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns and boost market confidence.
- Acquisition Proposal Competition: Victory Capital submitted a revised proposal to acquire Janus Henderson Group, raising its cash offer to $40 per share and including a fixed exchange ratio of 0.25 shares of Victory stock, reflecting strong interest in consolidation within the asset management industry.
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