UPS Declines More Sharply Than the Overall Market: Key Insights for Investors
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 25 2025
0mins
Should l Buy UPS?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
UPS Stock Performance: United Parcel Service (UPS) shares fell 1.57% to $82.58, underperforming against the S&P 500, which lost 0.5%. Over the past month, UPS has declined 4.51%, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 2.74%.
Earnings Expectations: Analysts anticipate UPS will report earnings of $1.33 per share, reflecting a 24.43% year-over-year decline, with projected revenue of $20.86 billion, a 6.23% decrease from the previous year. The full-year estimates suggest earnings of $6.5 per share and revenue of $87.5 billion, indicating significant declines.
Analyst Ratings and Valuation: UPS currently holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), with a recent downward revision of 0.41% in EPS estimates. Its Forward P/E ratio is 12.91, slightly below the industry average of 12.95, and it has a PEG ratio of 1.55, matching the industry average.
AI Investment Opportunities: The article highlights the potential for significant wealth creation in the next phase of AI development, suggesting that early investors in emerging companies could see substantial gains, while established AI stocks may experience a leveling off in growth.
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Analyst Views on UPS
Wall Street analysts forecast UPS stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
9 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 118.070
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
Current: 118.070
Low
80.00
Averages
107.06
High
126.00
About UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc. provides a range of integrated logistics solutions for customers in more than 200 countries and territories. Its U.S. Domestic Package segment offers a range of United States domestic air and ground package transportation services. Its air portfolio offers time-definite, same-day, next-day, two-day and three-day delivery alternatives as well as air cargo services. Its ground network enables customers to ship using its day-definite ground service. UPS SurePost provides residential ground service for customers with non-urgent, lightweight residential shipments. Its International Package segment consists of small package operations in Europe, Indian sub-continent, Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America and Asia. It offers a selection of guaranteed day- and time-definite international shipping services. Its supply chain solutions consist of forwarding, logistics, customized third-party logistics and specialized cold chain transportation solutions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Impact on the Industry: This change suggests that freight brokers may need to adapt to remain competitive in an increasingly automated environment.
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See More
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- Stock Decline: UPS's stock fell approximately 20% last year, and despite recent recovery, it remains about 50% lower than its 2022 highs, indicating market caution regarding its future performance.
- Business Overhaul Plan: UPS is implementing cost-cutting measures, including layoffs and facility closures, while focusing on high-margin business relationships, as part of a multi-year transformation aimed at improving operational efficiency and profitability.
- Revenue Trend Improvement: Despite a decline in U.S. business revenue, revenue per package has increased over the last three quarters, indicating early success in the company's focus on higher-margin operations, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for the turnaround.
- Investment Opportunity: Given the significant stock sell-off, investors still have the chance to buy UPS as business trends improve, and with the ongoing transformation, further upside is anticipated in the future.
See More
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- Market Reaction Analysis: Following the launch of Anthropic's Claude Cowork, software companies like Shopify, Monday.com, and Fastly saw stock declines of 23%, 15%, and 16% respectively, indicating investor concerns over AI potentially replacing traditional software, which may lead to a reevaluation of investment strategies.
- Industry Trend Observation: Despite surging AI spending and major players like Meta and Alphabet pushing forward, the future of software companies remains uncertain, particularly for those reliant on single-function products, which may face greater risks of obsolescence.
- Job Market Dynamics: Recent data shows that January layoffs reached the highest level since 2009, with job openings falling to the lowest since 2020, reflecting adjustments in labor demand as companies navigate economic recovery, potentially linked to the rise of AI technologies.
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- Surge in AI Spending: While AI spending continues to rise, software companies are facing intensified competitive pressures, particularly those reliant on single-function offerings like HubSpot and Atlassian, which may experience greater market disruption, impacting their future profitability.
- Clear Industry Differentiation: Analysts categorize software companies into three groups: large software leaders like Microsoft, critical ecosystem companies like Shopify, and those with singular functions, with the latter facing higher risks in the wake of AI advancements, potentially leading to market share erosion.
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See More
