GEO

Geo Group Inc

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Advanced Chart

20.260

+0.01(0.049%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

Line

Candle

YTD

High

20.580

Open

20.460

VWAP

20.18

Vol

1.40M

Mkt Cap

2.87B

Low

19.800

Amount

28.16M

EV/EBITDA(TTM)

10.80

Total Shares

136.31M

4.49B

EV/OCF(TTM)

18.87

P/S(TTM)

1.16

The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia.

Market Estimates

Earnings Estimates

Revenue

YoY Chg

EPS

YoYChg

FY2026Q1

FY2025Q4

FY2025Q3

755.41M

+24.93%

690.83M

+13.68%

664.33M

+10.15%

Estimates Revision

The market is revising Downward the revenue expectations for The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) for FY2025, with the revenue forecasts being adjusted by -1.01% over the past three months. During the same period, the stock price has changed by -22.55%.

Revenue Estimates for FY2025

Revise Downward

-1.01%

In Past 3 Month

Stock Price

Go Down

-22.55%

In Past 3 Month

6 Analyst Rating

76.85% Upside

Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEO is 35.83 USD with a low forecast of 26.00 USD and a high forecast of 46.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

76.85% Upside

Current: 20.260

Low

26.00

Averages

35.83

High

46.00

76.85% Upside

Current: 20.260

Low

26.00

Averages

35.83

High

46.00

JonesResearch

Jason Weaver

Buy

maintain

$50 -> $45

2025-08-07

New

Reason

JonesResearch

Jason Weaver

Price Target

$50 -> $45

2025-08-07

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

JonesResearch analyst Jason Weaver lowered the firm's price target on Geo Group to $45 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the Q2 report the Q2 beat. The firm cites alternatives to detention growth for the target cut. Geo's Intensive Supervision Appearance Program commentary disappointed, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Texas Capital

Raj Sharma

Buy

initiated

$30

2025-06-30

Reason

Texas Capital

Raj Sharma

Price Target

$30

2025-06-30

initiated

Buy

Reason

Texas Capital analyst Raj Sharma initiated coverage of Geo Group with a Buy rating and $30 price target.

Texas Capital

NULL -> Buy

initiated

$30

2025-06-30

Reason

Texas Capital

Price Target

$30

2025-06-30

initiated

NULL -> Buy

Reason

Texas Capital initiated coverage of Geo Group with a Buy rating and $30 price target. The company is the largest private prison and immigrant monitoring company in the U.S., and the Trump election victory has made it even more certain that the Administration will carry through on its commitment to increase funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement monitoring, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With substantial interest in expanding monitoring use in immigration enforcement, Geo faces a huge opportunity to increase revenues and expand margins, the firm added.

Wedbush

Outperform

NULL

downgrade

$46 -> $36

2025-05-08

Reason

Wedbush

Price Target

$46 -> $36

2025-05-08

downgrade

Outperform

NULL

Reason

Wedbush lowered the firm's price target on Geo Group to $36 from $46 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm explains that when it raised its price target in January 2025, Wedbush put its Geo valuation at the highest level it had traded in the pre-COVID years. The firm's decision to move to that valuation was based on its "erroneous view" that ATD/ISAP monitoring would ramp back to the previous highs fairly quickly after Trump's inauguration. Since that has not happened and since the Trump Administration appears more intent on incarceration than monitoring for now, Wedbush is lowering its valuation to a 12.5-turns FY26 EV/AEBITDA multiple.

Jones Trading

Matthew Erdner

Strong Buy

Reiterates

$55

2025-03-21

Reason

Jones Trading

Matthew Erdner

Price Target

$55

2025-03-21

Reiterates

Strong Buy

Reason

Jones Trading

Jason Weaver

Strong Buy

Maintains

$55

2025-03-03

Reason

Jones Trading

Jason Weaver

Price Target

$55

2025-03-03

Maintains

Strong Buy

Reason

See All Ratings

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Geo Group Inc (GEO.N) is 14.64, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 12.80. For a more detailed relative valuation and DCF analysis to assess Geo Group Inc 's fair value, click here.

Forward PE

The forward P/E ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future earnings per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PE

12.80

Current PE

14.64

Overvalued PE

19.46

Undervalued PE

6.14

Forward EV/EBITDA

The forward EV/EBITDA ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's enterprise value (EV) by its estimated future earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

7.70

Current EV/EBITDA

8.24

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

9.31

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

6.08

Forward PS

The forward P/S ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future sales (or revenue) per share over the next 12 months.

Overvalued

5Y Average PS

0.62

Current PS

1.01

Overvalued PS

0.97

Undervalued PS

0.26