Should You Buy Geo Group Inc (GEO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
16.340
1 Day change
1.81%
52 Week Range
32.250
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Buy now for a long-term position. GEO is trading near support after a sharp pullback (oversold RSI), while fundamentals and recent contract/financing news support a multi-quarter growth narrative. Options positioning is notably call-heavy (bullish sentiment). Even without proprietary buy signals today, the risk/reward at ~$16 looks attractive for a beginner long-term investor who doesn’t want to wait for a “perfect” entry.
Technical Analysis
Trend/price action: Near-term trend is bearish-to-weak. Price (~16.16) sits below the pivot (17.41) and just under/around the first support zone (S1 16.33) with next support at S2 15.66; resistance levels are 18.49 then 19.16. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.131) and expanding lower, confirming downside momentum is still present. RSI(6) is ~26.8 (oversold/washed-out), which often precedes a bounce even if the broader trend is still weak. Moving averages are converging, suggesting the selloff may be maturing into a base-building phase rather than an accelerating breakdown. Practical read: technically weak but oversold near support—more consistent with a buy-the-dip long-term entry than chasing strength.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment: Open interest put/call of 0.21 is strongly call-skewed (bullish positioning). Volume put/call of 0.64 is also call-leaning on the day (more calls than puts). Volatility: 30D IV ~61.4 vs historical vol ~39.6 indicates options are pricing elevated movement; IV rank/percentile ~42 suggests volatility is not extreme vs its own history, but still high in absolute terms—consistent with a stock that can move sharply around news/earnings. Overall: options market leans bullish despite the recent price weakness.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
1) Contract-driven growth: News highlights a $121M ICE skip tracing services contract, supporting revenue visibility. 2) Improved financial flexibility: Revolving credit facility increased from $450M to $550M, which can help fund operations, growth initiatives, and refinance needs. 3) Strong recent operating results (latest reported quarter): 2025/Q3 showed solid top-line growth (+13.13% YoY) with a large EPS/net income surge, reinforcing the turnaround narrative. 4) Potential event catalyst: Next earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-12 (pre-market) could re-rate the stock if guidance/contract ramp is strong.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Technical pressure: MACD downside momentum remains in force; price is below key pivot and could retest ~15.66 if support fails. 2) Margin pressure: 2025/Q3 gross margin fell to 20.58% (down ~4.10% YoY), implying profitability improvements may not be purely from core margin expansion. 3) Analyst target cut (even while staying Buy): JonesResearch lowered PT from $50 to $37, citing slower-than-expected growth—signal that the ramp could be uneven. 4) Earnings risk: With earnings on 2026-02-12, any disappointment in guidance/contracts could trigger volatility (consistent with elevated IV).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $682.341M (+13.13% YoY), showing clear growth. Net income jumped to $173.94M (+560.87% YoY) and EPS to $1.24 (+552.63% YoY), indicating a major profitability improvement versus last year’s base. However, gross margin declined to 20.58% (-4.10% YoY), which is a caution flag: profitability gains may be influenced by mix, timing, or non-margin drivers rather than broad-based margin expansion. Net takeaway: strong growth and earnings momentum, but monitor margins in upcoming quarters.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: JonesResearch maintained a Buy rating but cut its price target to $37 from $50 (2025-11-07), reflecting tempered expectations due to slower-than-expected growth. Wall Street pro view (pros): clear pathway narrative toward higher annualized revenue from upcoming contracts/monitoring and bullish stance on segments like ISAP. Cons: revised estimates downward and acknowledged growth pacing risk. Net: analysts appear constructive long-term, but with reduced near-term exuberance.
Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEO is 34 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEO is 34 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 16.050
Low
30
Averages
34
High
37
Current: 16.050
Low
30
Averages
34
High
37
JonesResearch
Buy
downgrade
$50 -> $37
AI Analysis
2025-11-07
Reason
JonesResearch
Price Target
$50 -> $37
AI Analysis
2025-11-07
downgrade
Buy
Reason
JonesResearch lowered the firm's price target on Geo Group to $37 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The pathway toward $3B+ in annualized revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring has begun tot show for FY26, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm revised its estimates downward, however, to account for slower-than-expected growth, but noted that it remains bullish on all segments of GEO, in particular the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program opportunity.
JonesResearch
Jason Weaver
Buy
maintain
$50 -> $45
2025-08-07
Reason
JonesResearch
Jason Weaver
Price Target
$50 -> $45
2025-08-07
maintain
Buy
Reason
JonesResearch analyst Jason Weaver lowered the firm's price target on Geo Group to $45 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the Q2 report the Q2 beat. The firm cites alternatives to detention growth for the target cut. Geo's Intensive Supervision Appearance Program commentary disappointed, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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