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GEO Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Geo Group Inc (GEO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
18.790
1 Day change
1.02%
52 Week Range
32.090
Analysis Updated At
2026/04/17
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Geo Group Inc is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. While the company has shown strong financial growth in the latest quarter, the technical indicators and options data do not suggest a clear bullish trend. Additionally, there are no recent positive news catalysts or significant trading trends to support immediate action.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is below 0 and negatively contracting, indicating bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 64.526, and moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend. The stock is trading near its pivot level of 17.838, with resistance at 18.442 and support at 17.235, suggesting limited immediate upside potential.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
4
Buy
9

Positive Catalysts

  • Strong financial performance in Q4 2025, with revenue up 16.45% YoY, net income up 115.77% YoY, and EPS up 109.09% YoY.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Gross margin dropped by 4.06% YoY. Analysts have lowered price targets due to slower-than-expected growth and ISAP headwinds. No significant trading trends from hedge funds or insiders. No recent news or congress trading data.

Financial Performance

In Q4 2025, Geo Group reported revenue of $707.7M (+16.45% YoY), net income of $31.77M (+115.77% YoY), and EPS of $0.23 (+109.09% YoY). However, gross margin decreased to 20.3% (-4.06% YoY).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts remain optimistic but have lowered price targets recently. Noble Capital reduced the target from $35 to $28, and JonesResearch reduced it from $37 to $33, citing slower growth and ISAP headwinds.

Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise
2 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 18.600
sliders
Low
30
Averages
32.5
High
35
Current: 18.600
sliders
Low
30
Averages
32.5
High
35
Noble Capital
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
$35 -> $28
AI Analysis
2026-02-17
Reason
Noble Capital
Price Target
$35 -> $28
AI Analysis
2026-02-17
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
Noble Capital lowered the firm's price target on Geo Group to $28 from $35 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is lowering its price target to reflect slower than anticipated growth after the company reported Q4 results and gave 2026 guidance.
JonesResearch
Buy
downgrade
$37 -> $33
2026-02-13
Reason
JonesResearch
Price Target
$37 -> $33
2026-02-13
downgrade
Buy
Reason
JonesResearch lowered the firm's price target on Geo Group to $33 from $37 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm remains bullish on all segments, in particular the ISAP opportunity, but notes that the ISAP ramp may continue to face headwinds until 100,000 detention capacity is full.
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