GEO Earnings

GEO reported its earnings on 2026-02-12, showcasing a revenue of 707.70M against an estimate of 664.16M, resulting in a 6.55% surprise. The EPS was 0.25, surpassing the expected 0.25 by 0%. The stock experienced a -14.91% price change on the earnings day and a -7.52% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

Following GEO's earnings announcement on 2026-02-12, the stock price moved by -14.91% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a -7.52% change. Historically, GEO's stock price tends to shift by an average of 9.55% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -0.38% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate GEO's annual revenue to reach 667.23M, while the EPS is projected at 0.23. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates unchanged by 0% and EPS estimates unchanged by 0% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company's performance.

The correlation between GEO's stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were unchanged by 0%, while EPS estimates moved unchanged by 0%. This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.

Based on historical trends, GEO's stock price typically moves by 9.55% in the 10 days before its earnings and -0.38% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 0.23 and revenue of 667.23M.

The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate positive sentiment. The company has new contracts and partnerships, with significant revenue potential from ICE detention capacity expansion and the ISAP 5 contract. Management is prepared to scale operations and is actively pursuing stock buybacks. While there are some concerns about margin compression and conservative guidance, the overall outlook is optimistic, with growth opportunities and shareholder returns in focus. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a positive stock price movement prediction.