GEO Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how GEO performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, GEO sees a +5.45% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.12% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.46%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
GEO Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
603.12M
0.06%
-0.67%
Gross Margin
21.46%
-1.20%
-1.56%
Operating Margin
13.66%
-1.51%
3.48%
Net Margin
4.36%
7.39%
-181.34%
EPS
0.19
18.75%
-176.00%
No Data Available
GEO Earnings Analysis
The GEO Group, Inc. Corporation (GEO.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Secure Services Revenue Growth: 1. Increased Revenue from Secure Services: Quarterly revenues in owned and leased secure services facilities increased by approximately 6% year-over-year, driven by higher occupancy levels at ICE facilities.
Net Income Increase: 2. Net Income Growth: The company reported net income attributable to GEO of approximately $26 million or $0.19 per diluted share for Q3 2024, an increase from $25 million or $0.16 per diluted share in Q3 2023.
Debt Reduction Achievements: 3. Debt Reduction Progress: Year-to-date, GEO has reduced net debt by approximately $92 million, bringing total net debt below $1.7 billion, with an expectation to reduce it by an additional $20 million in Q4 2024.
Stable EBITDA Performance: 4. Strong EBITDA Performance: The third quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA was approximately $119 million, remaining essentially unchanged compared to the prior year, indicating stable operational performance.
Future Growth Potential: 5. Capacity for Future Growth: GEO has approximately 10,000 available beds at six company-owned facilities that could generate approximately $300 million in incremental annualized revenues if fully reactivated.
Negative
ISAP Participant Count Decline: 1. Decline in ISAP Participant Count: The average participant count under the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) decreased to approximately 177,000 in Q3 2024 from 184,000 in Q2 2024, indicating a downward trend in engagement with this service.
Stagnant Revenue Performance: 2. Flat Revenue Growth: Despite a year-over-year revenue increase of 6% in owned and leased secure services, the overall revenue remained unchanged at approximately $603 million compared to Q3 2023, reflecting stagnation in growth.
Revenue Decline in Monitoring: 3. Lower Revenue from Electronic Monitoring: The Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment experienced a revenue decline of about $14 million year-over-year, directly impacting net operating income by the same amount, indicating operational inefficiencies.
Revised Earnings Outlook: 4. Reduced Full Year Guidance: The company adjusted its full year 2024 guidance, expecting net income attributable to GEO to be in the range of $0.30 to $0.34 per diluted share, down from previous expectations, reflecting a pessimistic outlook.
High Debt Levels: 5. High Net Leverage Ratio: The company reported a net leverage ratio of approximately 3.5x adjusted EBITDA, indicating a high level of debt relative to earnings, which may limit financial flexibility and growth opportunities.
GEO FAQs
How does GEO typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
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GEO Earning Call Sentiment
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
GEO.N
-5.24%Positive
The earnings call summary shows stable financial performance with improved net income and EPS, but unchanged revenue and EBITDA. The Q&A reveals uncertainties around funding and expansion opportunities, and vague management responses. The market cap indicates moderate volatility. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, as the positive aspects are balanced by uncertainties and unchanged revenue.
