GEO Earnings

GEO reported its earnings on 2026-05-06, showcasing a revenue of 705.21M against an estimate of 683.86M, resulting in a 3.12% surprise. The EPS was 0.29, surpassing the expected 0.19 by 52.63%. The stock experienced a 20.92% price change on the earnings day and a 0% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

Following GEO's earnings announcement on 2026-05-06, the stock price moved by 20.92% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a 0% change. Historically, GEO's stock price tends to shift by an average of 6.58% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and 0.66% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.

For 2026/Q2, analysts estimate GEO's annual revenue to reach 733.65M, while the EPS is projected at 0.30. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates unchanged by 0% and EPS estimates unchanged by 0% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company's performance.

The correlation between GEO's stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were unchanged by 0%, while EPS estimates moved unchanged by 0%. This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.

Based on historical trends, GEO's stock price typically moves by 6.58% in the 10 days before its earnings and 0.66% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2026/Q2 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 0.30 and revenue of 733.65M.

The earnings call presents a mixed picture. While financial performance shows some challenges, such as a revenue decrease in electronic monitoring services and increased operating expenses, there are positive aspects like reduced net interest expenses and improved EBITDA. The Q&A highlights uncertainties in facility sales timing and ICE population impacts, but also potential growth in mental health services and stable ICE contracts. The market cap suggests moderate volatility, leading to a neutral prediction, with potential for slight positive or negative movement depending on further developments.