War Causes Sharp Decline in Birth Rates in Ukraine and Russia
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVO?
Source: CNBC
- Ukraine's Fertility Rate Plummets: Since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine's fertility rate has dropped from 1.22 in 2021 to 1.00 by 2025, with some experts warning it could fall to 0.8-0.9, indicating significant impacts on family expansion and potential future labor shortages.
- Russia's Declining Birth Rate: Russia's fertility rate has also decreased from 1.51 in 2021 to 1.37 in 2025, and despite the Kremlin's initiatives to encourage larger families, the lack of effective results reflects a broader societal insecurity affecting women's decisions to have children.
- Long-term Demographic Consequences of War: The four-year conflict has deterred women in both Ukraine and Russia from having children, leading to greater economic and social pressures in the future, particularly as an aging population increases and the labor market faces significant challenges.
- Resistance to Putin's Birth Policies: Despite various incentives introduced by the Russian government, including cash rewards and tax breaks, the low birth rates persist due to women's feelings of insecurity, raising questions about the effectiveness of these policies in addressing demographic concerns.
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Analyst Views on NVO
Wall Street analysts forecast NVO stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 47.420
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
Current: 47.420
Low
42.00
Averages
54.67
High
70.00
About NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S is a global healthcare company engaged in diabetes care. The Company is also engaged in the discovery, development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. The Company operates through two business segments: diabetes and obesity care, and biopharmaceuticals. The Company's diabetes and obesity care segment covers insulin, GLP-1, other protein-related products, such as glucagon, protein-related delivery systems and needles, and oral anti-diabetic drugs. The Company's biopharmaceuticals segment covers the therapy areas of hemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy. The Company also offers Saxenda product to treat obesity. It offers a range of products, including NovoLog/NovoRapid; NovoLog Mix/NovoMix; Prandin/NovoNorm; NovoSeven; Norditropin, and Vagifem. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed its products in over 180 countries. Its regional structure consists of two commercial units: North America and International Operations.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Stock Price Volatility: In pre-market trading on Monday, Novo Nordisk shares fell over 10%, reflecting strong investor disappointment over the trial results, which could impact the company's short-term market performance and investor confidence.
- Bearish Market Sentiment: Retail sentiment around Novo Nordisk on Stocktwits trended into 'extremely bearish' territory, indicating heightened investor concerns about the company's future developments, potentially leading to further stock price declines.
- Significant Industry Impact: The failure of this trial not only pressures Novo Nordisk but could also negatively affect the entire weight-loss drug market, influencing investment and R&D decisions of other related companies.
See More
Novo Nordisk's CagriSema Phase 3 Trial Results Disappoint
- Trial Results Fall Short: Novo Nordisk's CagriSema failed to achieve non-inferiority in the REDEFINE 4 trial, resulting in a stock price drop of over 15%, indicating increased competitive pressure in the obesity treatment market.
- Weight Loss Efficacy: Under ideal conditions, CagriSema led to a 23.0% weight loss over 84 weeks, compared to 25.5% for Lilly's tirzepatide, suggesting that CagriSema's real-world effectiveness may lag behind its competitor.
- Good Safety Profile: Although the primary endpoint was not met, CagriSema demonstrated a safe and well-tolerated profile, with common adverse events primarily being mild to moderate gastrointestinal issues that diminished over time, indicating its potential for clinical use.
- Future Milestones: Novo Nordisk plans to submit a New Drug Application for CagriSema to the FDA in December 2025, with a decision expected by late 2026, reflecting the company's confidence in the product's future market prospects.
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- Ukraine's Fertility Rate Plummets: Since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine's fertility rate has dropped from 1.22 in 2021 to 1.00 by 2025, with some experts warning it could fall to 0.8-0.9, indicating significant impacts on family expansion and potential future labor shortages.
- Russia's Declining Birth Rate: Russia's fertility rate has also decreased from 1.51 in 2021 to 1.37 in 2025, and despite the Kremlin's initiatives to encourage larger families, the lack of effective results reflects a broader societal insecurity affecting women's decisions to have children.
- Long-term Demographic Consequences of War: The four-year conflict has deterred women in both Ukraine and Russia from having children, leading to greater economic and social pressures in the future, particularly as an aging population increases and the labor market faces significant challenges.
- Resistance to Putin's Birth Policies: Despite various incentives introduced by the Russian government, including cash rewards and tax breaks, the low birth rates persist due to women's feelings of insecurity, raising questions about the effectiveness of these policies in addressing demographic concerns.
See More
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- Market Potential: An estimated 277 obesity drug candidates are in development as of mid-2025, indicating strong market demand despite the likelihood that most will not gain approval, thus attracting investor interest.
- Viking Therapeutics' Edge: Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 is currently in phase 3 clinical trials, significantly increasing the probability of success compared to earlier-stage candidates, and successful approval could greatly enhance the company's competitive position in the market.
- Diverse Development Strategy: Viking is developing VK2735 in both subcutaneous and oral formulations while exploring various combinations to help patients maintain weight loss, a critical challenge in the pharmaceutical industry that underscores their innovative approach.
- Risk and Reward: While Viking's stock could soar in the coming years, clinical or regulatory setbacks could also lead to significant declines, suggesting that investors should only consider a $5,000 investment if they possess above-average risk tolerance.
See More
Viking Therapeutics Shows Strong Mid-Stage Data for VK2735
- Clinical Trial Progress: Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 has entered phase 3 clinical trials, with strong mid-stage data indicating its potential in the weight-loss drug market, and successful approval could significantly enhance the company's market value.
- Market Competition Analysis: Despite increasing competition in the weight-loss drug market, Viking's diversified development strategy positions it well for a niche over the next decade, particularly with the development of VK2735 in both subcutaneous and oral formulations.
- Investment Risks and Returns: Investors willing to take risks by putting $5,000 into Viking Therapeutics could see substantial returns over the next decade, especially if the company successfully launches VK2735.
- Industry Outlook: As of mid-2025, 277 obesity drug candidates are in development, with most unlikely to gain approval; however, VK2735's success would significantly enhance Viking's competitiveness in the rapidly growing weight-loss drug market.
See More
