Used Vehicle Price Index Rises 4%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 06 2026
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Index Increase: Cox Automotive reported a 4% year-over-year increase in the used vehicle price index for February 2026, reaching 212.3, which is up 0.8% from January 2023, indicating strong demand and an increase in dealer inventories.
- Sales Conversion Rates Rise: Jeremy Robb, Cox's chief economist, noted that since the beginning of 2026, sales conversion rates at Manheim have been solid, reflecting dealers' strong appetite for purchasing, particularly with prices rising unexpectedly in the latter half of February.
- Tax Refund Impact: Robb suggested that anticipated higher tax returns for American consumers could boost vehicle demand, although risks from the war in Iran may dampen consumer appetite in the short term, especially as gas prices rise.
- Historical Price Comparison: While used vehicle prices remain high compared to historical levels, the average listing price in January was $25,533, down from over $28,000 in 2022, yet still demonstrating market resilience, with expectations for wholesale prices to end 2% higher than December 2025.
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Analyst Views on KMX
Wall Street analysts forecast KMX stock price to fall
13 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
10 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 41.580
Low
24.00
Averages
33.60
High
37.00
Current: 41.580
Low
24.00
Averages
33.60
High
37.00
About KMX
CarMax, Inc. is a retailer of used autos. The Company operates through two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance (CAF). The CarMax Sales Operations segment consists of all aspects of its auto merchandising and service operations. The CarMax Sales Operations segment sells used vehicles, purchases used vehicles from customers and other sources, sells related products and services, and arranges financing options for customers. The CAF segment consists solely of its own finance operation that provides financing for customers buying retail vehicles from the Company. The CAF segment also services all auto loans, it originates and is responsible for providing billing statements, collecting payments, maintaining contact with delinquent customers, and arranging for the repossession of vehicles securing defaulted loans. It provides customers with a range of other related products and services, including extended protection plan (EPP) products and vehicle repair services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in these reports do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Barron’s.
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Purpose of Reports: The reports serve as a sampling of market analysis rather than definitive investment advice.
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- Recruitment and Benefits: CarMax is currently hiring across various business areas, offering competitive pay and benefits, including immediate 401(k) eligibility, gym discounts, and comprehensive medical plans, which attract talent and improve employee satisfaction.
See More
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- Rising Negative Equity: According to J.D. Power, 30.5% of new car buyers are facing negative equity on trade-ins, up 4.2 percentage points from last year, indicating increasing market pressures that affect consumer purchasing decisions.
- Record High Debt Levels: As of Q4 2025, the average amount owed on underwater trade-ins reached $7,214, a record high, with 27% of these trade-ins carrying over $10,000 in negative equity, reflecting a deterioration in consumer financial health.
- Increased Payment Burden: The average monthly payment for buyers rolling negative equity into new loans hit $916, which is $144 higher than the average payment for all new car purchases, indicating greater financial strain on consumers when buying vehicles.
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See More
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- Earnings Release Schedule: CarMax will report its financial results for the fourth quarter ended February 28, 2026, before the market opens on April 14, 2026, and will host a conference call at 9:00 a.m. ET, ensuring transparent communication of its performance to investors.
- Executive Participation: The call will feature Interim Executive Chair Tom Folliard, President and CEO Keith Barr, CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora, and EVP of CarMax Auto Finance Jon Daniels, highlighting the company's commitment to engaging with its investors.
- Financial Performance Overview: In the fiscal year ending February 2025, CarMax sold approximately 790,000 used vehicles and 540,000 wholesale vehicles, indicating strong market performance, while CarMax Auto Finance originated over $8 billion in auto loans, enhancing its nearly $18 billion loan portfolio.
- Company Background Information: As the largest retailer of used cars in the U.S., CarMax operates over 250 locations with more than 28,000 associates and has been recognized for 21 consecutive years as one of the Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For, reflecting its leadership in the industry and commitment to employee satisfaction.
See More
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- Leadership Style Introduction: CarMax's new CEO Keith Barr emphasized a customer- and associate-centric leadership approach in his letter to shareholders, drawing on his successful experience in major hotel brands to enhance the company's competitiveness in the used car market.
- Brand and Market Advantages: Barr praised CarMax's trusted brand and its national footprint reaching 85% of the U.S. population, arguing that these strengths create a powerful platform for growth in the large, fragmented used car market.
- Technology-Driven Transformation: Barr plans to leverage technology to reduce digital friction and provide a simple, seamless, personalized omnichannel experience, thereby enhancing customer satisfaction and improving associate effectiveness to drive the company towards a more efficient operational model.
- Governance and Strategic Adjustments: In response to activist investor Starboard Value, Barr committed to implementing disciplined measures to refocus the organization, improve governance, and enhance CarMax's long-term potential to address recent performance challenges.
See More
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- Financial Performance Decline: CarMax reported a 5.4% decrease in retail unit sales and a 6.3% drop in comparable store sales for Q2 2025, indicating significant market pressure that could adversely affect future profitability.
- Net Income Plummets: The company's net income for Q2 was approximately $95.4 million, down 28.2% from $132.8 million a year ago, reflecting a sharp decline in profitability that may erode investor confidence.
- Executive Turnover Impact: The unexpected departure of CarMax's CEO on November 6, 2025, along with a weak preliminary Q3 outlook, could exacerbate market concerns regarding the company's future performance.
- Legal Action Risks: CarMax and its executives are facing a securities class action lawsuit for failing to disclose material information during the class period, and KSF's investigation will assess whether executives breached fiduciary duties to shareholders, potentially leading to greater legal and financial risks for the company.
See More
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Report Overview: Recent reports from investment and research firms provide insights into analysts' perspectives on various companies.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in these reports do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Barron’s.
Investment Services: Some report issuers may have existing or potential investment-banking relationships with the companies analyzed.
Purpose of Reports: The reports serve as a sampling of market analysis rather than definitive investment advice.
See More
