Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and market analysis, here's a concise assessment of CVNA:

Based on recent market data, selling CVNA stock appears to be the prudent move as the stock faces significant headwinds and concerning fundamentals. The company's recent turnaround appears to be largely driven by accounting manipulation rather than sustainable business improvements.

The stock has already risen over 42x from its lows, while insiders like Ernest Garcia II have sold $1.4 billion in stock during this rally. This selling pattern is concerning as it mirrors previous behavior before the 99% stock price decline in 2022.

Based on the available data and analysis, here is the price prediction for CVNA stock in 2025:

Carvana's stock is expected to reach $350 by end of 2025, driven by continued operational improvements and market share gains in the used car market. The company's recent positive earnings trend and successful debt restructuring have restored investor confidence. However, high debt levels of $5.6 billion and thin profit margins around 4% remain key risks.

The bullish target is supported by Wall Street analysts projecting EPS to improve from -$2.97 in 2023 to +$4.72 in 2026. The company's existing infrastructure can support over 1 million annual vehicle sales compared to current ~378,000 units, providing significant growth runway in the 36 million used car market.

The S1 support level for CVNA Stock is $194.27 ,The R1 resistant level for CVNA Stock is $241.14.

As of the end of day on 2025-03-06, the price of CVNA Stock was $187.49.

The target price for CVNA Stock according to analyst rating is 286.43, with the highest price target at 350.00 and the lowest at 220.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on CVNA Stock overall.

The market cap of CVNA is $39.8B.

Based on the provided data and context, here is my analysis of whether CVNA is overvalued:

CVNA's stock has surged dramatically despite ongoing fundamental concerns, making it significantly overvalued at current levels. The company trades at an 845% premium to peers CarMax and AutoNation on sales multiples and a 754% premium on forward earnings.

Recent earnings triggered a stock decline due to lower gross profit per vehicle and shrinking wholesale volumes. Morgan Stanley noted "expectations were high going into results" and the lack of specific FY25 margin guidance drove selling pressure.

The company faces major structural challenges with its business model, including $4.8 billion in net debt and junk credit ratings. Nearly 44% of loans for cars purchased since 2022 are underwater according to recent surveys.

The stock appears extremely overvalued given deteriorating fundamentals, high debt levels, and premium valuation multiples compared to profitable peers in the used car industry.

Carvana Co. is a holding company. The Company operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. On the Company's platform, consumers can research and identify a vehicle, inspect it using its 360-degree vehicle imaging technology, obtain financing and warranty coverage, purchase the vehicle, and schedule delivery or pick-up, all from their desktop or mobile devices. It also provides automated vehicle valuations for buying vehicles from customers with or without a retail purchase, automated financing, vehicle service contracts (VSC), auto insurance, GAP waiver coverage, limited warranty, and other ancillary products. It offers pick-up and delivery options, including pick-up at its vending machines or hubs, and as soon as same day deliveries, depending on the market. The Company's in-house customer advocates are available to answer customer questions that arise throughout the process.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here's a concise prediction for Carvana (CVNA) stock price in 2030:

Carvana's stock is projected to reach $450-500 by 2030, driven by its improving financial health and growing market share in the used car market. Despite current high valuation at 3.6x P/S ratio, the company's positive earnings trend and potential to capture more of the 36 million annual used car transactions market supports long-term growth.

The stock faces headwinds from significant debt ($5.6 billion) and increasing competition from major players like Amazon entering the online car sales space, but continued execution on profitability targets of 8-13.5% EBITDA margins could sustain price appreciation.

CVNA has a total of 13700 employees.