Should You Buy Carmax Inc (KMX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Not a good buy right now. KMX is in a weak near-term trend (bearish momentum), fundamentals are deteriorating (FY2026 Q3 profit and margin compression), and the Street’s price targets skew well below the current ~$45 level—creating an unfavorable risk/reward for an impatient buyer. I would avoid new longs here and treat strength as a sell/trim opportunity.
Technical Analysis
Price closed at 45.21 after a -3.05% regular-session drop, sitting below the key pivot (47.11) and just above first support (S1 44.97), with the next support at 43.65. MACD histogram is negative (-0.238) and widening to the downside, signaling bearish momentum. RSI(6) at ~44 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), implying downside can continue without a mean-reversion bounce. Moving averages are converging, which often precedes a larger move; combined with bearish MACD and price below pivot, the setup favors continuation lower rather than an immediate reversal.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst actions are predominantly cautious: multiple firms kept/assigned Neutral/Hold/Sector Perform, while Barclays and JPMorgan maintained Underweight with very low targets (around $24–$28). Several targets clustered in the mid-$30s, still meaningfully below the current ~$45 price—an implied negative expected return per consensus framing. Wall Street pros/cons: Pros—cost cuts, buybacks, and potential used-market momentum. Cons—near-term margin pressure, weak visibility on volume recovery, and competitive intensity forcing price/marketing investments. Net: Street bias remains negative, and the current price looks ahead of what analysts are willing to underwrite.
Wall Street analysts forecast KMX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KMX is 33.6 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast KMX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KMX is 33.6 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Current: 46.960
Current: 46.960
