UBS Upgrades Gap to Buy, Raises Price Target to $41
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 08 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GAP?
Source: CNBC
- Rating Upgrade: UBS upgraded Gap from neutral to buy and raised the 12-month price target from $26 to $41, implying a 54% upside from Wednesday's close, reflecting strong confidence in Gap's future growth potential.
- Sales Growth Expectations: Analyst Jay Sole anticipates that Gap's sales and earnings growth will be driven by improving revenue growth for Athleta and the successful implementation of initiatives in the beauty and handbag sectors, further enhancing overall performance.
- Earnings Forecast Increase: The analyst now expects Gap's fiscal 2026 earnings growth to reach 14%, up from just 2% in fiscal 2025, while also raising the five-year compound annual growth rate forecast from 3% to 10%, indicating optimism about the company's long-term growth prospects.
- Market Opportunity Assessment: Sole noted that Gap's investments in beauty and accessories are expected to be accretive to the company's gross margin, suggesting that the market may be underestimating the growth opportunities in this area, thereby strengthening Gap's competitive position.
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Analyst Views on GAP
Wall Street analysts forecast GAP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GAP is 31.07 USD with a low forecast of 25.00 USD and a high forecast of 41.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 28.200
Low
25.00
Averages
31.07
High
41.00
Current: 28.200
Low
25.00
Averages
31.07
High
41.00
About GAP
The Gap, Inc. is a specialty apparel company in America. The Company offers apparel, accessories and personal care products for women, men, and children. Its Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands offer clothing, accessories and lifestyle products for men, women, and children. It is an omni-channel retailer, with sales to customers both in stores and online, through Company-operated and franchise stores, websites, and third-party arrangements. Its omni-channel services, including buying online pick-up in-store, order-in-store, find-in-store, and ship-from-store, as well as enhanced mobile-enabled experiences, are tailored across its collection of brands. Gap includes adult apparel and accessories; GapKids, babyGap, Gap Maternity, GapBody, and GapFit collections. Banana Republic is a premium lifestyle retailer celebrating exploration and self-expression through timeless quality, versatile fabrics, and exceptionally made womenswear, menswear, and home designs.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
GAP Stock Options Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: Selling a put option at a $25 strike price allows investors to collect a 35-cent premium, effectively lowering their purchase cost to $24.65, which represents a 13% discount compared to the current stock price of $28.68, making it attractive for those interested in GAP shares.
- Return Potential Analysis: If the put option expires worthless, investors could achieve a 1.40% return on their cash commitment, equating to an annualized yield of 10.23%, indicating the strategy's profitability, with a current 73% probability of the option expiring worthless.
- Call Option Returns: Selling a call option at a $29 strike price allows investors to earn a 43-cent premium on top of the current $28.68 share price, yielding a total return of 2.62% if the stock is called away, while retaining both the stock and premium if the option expires worthless.
- Volatility Comparison: The implied volatility for the put option stands at 82%, while the call option's implied volatility is 61%, reflecting differing market expectations for GAP's price movements, with an actual trailing twelve-month volatility of 57%, providing investors with a comprehensive risk assessment framework.
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Analysis of Store Openings and Closures in U.S. Retail Sector
- Increase in Store Openings: Coresight Research projects that U.S. retailers will open approximately 5,500 new stores in 2026, representing a 4.4% year-over-year increase, indicating that value retailers are effectively attracting consumer spending and reflecting sustained demand for low-cost goods.
- Decrease in Store Closures: It is expected that about 7,900 stores will close in 2026, a 4.5% decline from the previous year, marking the lowest number of closures in the past three years, which suggests signs of recovery in the retail sector post-pandemic.
- Impact of Bankruptcies: Last year, 32 retailers filed for bankruptcy, leading to significant store closures; however, affluent consumers continued to support retail growth, highlighting the ongoing K-shaped recovery in the economy.
- Tightening Real Estate Market: With a slowdown in bankruptcies, retail real estate demand is expected to tighten, particularly in major retail markets, as retailers compete for limited commercial space, potentially leading to rising rents in the coming years.
See More
US Retail Store Closures Decline as Industry Stabilizes
- Decline in Store Closures: It is projected that U.S. retailers will close approximately 7,900 stores in 2026, representing a 4.5% year-over-year decrease, marking the lowest closure rate in three years as the retail sector moves past a wave of bankruptcies.
- Increase in New Openings: According to Coresight Research, U.S. retailers are expected to open about 5,500 new stores in 2026, a 4.4% increase year-over-year, indicating the continued appeal of value-focused retailers in attracting consumer spending.
- Supply and Demand Dynamics: As demand for retail space rises and supply diminishes, developers may find renewed opportunities to construct new strip malls, potentially revitalizing the retail landscape and driving future growth.
- Economic Factors at Play: Coresight's global research head anticipates that while high inflation and a sluggish housing market continue to impact retail, these economic pressures are expected to ease over the coming year, leading to improved real estate plans for retailers.
See More
Market Dynamics and Company Performances in U.S. Stocks
- Fed Chair Nomination: President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair, likely easing market concerns about Fed independence, although the December producer price index exceeded expectations, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures.
- Apple's Strong Performance: Apple reported robust iPhone demand and service growth in its latest earnings, particularly in China, while memory shortages may pose challenges; however, the stock is on track to break an eight-week losing streak, reflecting solid investor confidence.
- Sandisk Stock Surge: Following a strong earnings report, Sandisk's stock soared 22%, marking a 175% increase year-to-date, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target from $320 to $700, indicating strong future growth potential.
- Broadcom Upgrade: Wolfe Research upgraded Broadcom from hold to buy with a price target of $400, citing expectations that AI revenue could double by 2027, highlighting the company's growth potential in tensor processing units.
See More
Distillate Capital Announces Q4 2025 Portfolio Adjustments
- Portfolio Changes: Distillate Capital's Q4 2025 rebalancing saw the U.S. Fundamental Stability & Value Composite purchase Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Vistra (VST), and TE Connectivity (TEL), while divesting from Elevance Health (ELV), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and Lowe's Companies (LOW), indicating a strategic shift in healthcare and consumer sectors.
- Increases and Reductions: The U.S. FSV Strategy increased stakes in Uber Technologies (UBER), T-Mobile US (TMUS), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC), while trimming positions in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck & Co. (MRK), and Cisco Systems (CSCO), reflecting changing confidence in technology and energy sectors.
- Small Cap Investments: The U.S. Small/Mid Cap Quality & Value Composite acquired CF Industries Holdings (CF), Molson Coors Beverage (TAP), and Toll Brothers (TOL), exiting Range Resources (RRC), Gap (GAP), and TopBuild (BLD), showcasing a proactive approach towards small-cap stocks.
- International Investment Dynamics: The International Fundamental Stability & Value Composite acquired Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), HD HYUNDAI, and Rio Tinto (RIO), while divesting from SK Hynix (HXSC.F), LVMH (LVMHF), and Aluminum Corporation of China (ALMMF), highlighting a focus on international mining and consumer goods.
See More
Gap (GAP) Appoints New Chief Entertainment Officer to Expand Fashiontainment Strategy
- New Position Creation: Gap (GAP) has appointed Pam Kaufman, CEO of Paramount's International Markets, as Chief Entertainment Officer, aiming to enhance brand value through entertainment content and licensing platforms, reporting directly to CEO Richard Dickson, indicating the company's commitment to the entertainment sector.
- Clear Strategic Goals: The newly established entertainment division will focus on multimedia areas such as music, TV, gaming, and sports, leveraging innovative storytelling to strengthen connections with consumers, thereby driving sales growth and brand relevance.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the announcement of the new strategy, Gap's (GAP) stock rose over 1% on Thursday, breaking a four-day losing streak, indicating market recognition and anticipation for its
See More
GAP Stock Options Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: Selling a put option at a $25 strike price allows investors to collect a 35-cent premium, effectively lowering their purchase cost to $24.65, which represents a 13% discount compared to the current stock price of $28.68, making it attractive for those interested in GAP shares.
- Return Potential Analysis: If the put option expires worthless, investors could achieve a 1.40% return on their cash commitment, equating to an annualized yield of 10.23%, indicating the strategy's profitability, with a current 73% probability of the option expiring worthless.
- Call Option Returns: Selling a call option at a $29 strike price allows investors to earn a 43-cent premium on top of the current $28.68 share price, yielding a total return of 2.62% if the stock is called away, while retaining both the stock and premium if the option expires worthless.
- Volatility Comparison: The implied volatility for the put option stands at 82%, while the call option's implied volatility is 61%, reflecting differing market expectations for GAP's price movements, with an actual trailing twelve-month volatility of 57%, providing investors with a comprehensive risk assessment framework.
See More
Analysis of Store Openings and Closures in U.S. Retail Sector
- Increase in Store Openings: Coresight Research projects that U.S. retailers will open approximately 5,500 new stores in 2026, representing a 4.4% year-over-year increase, indicating that value retailers are effectively attracting consumer spending and reflecting sustained demand for low-cost goods.
- Decrease in Store Closures: It is expected that about 7,900 stores will close in 2026, a 4.5% decline from the previous year, marking the lowest number of closures in the past three years, which suggests signs of recovery in the retail sector post-pandemic.
- Impact of Bankruptcies: Last year, 32 retailers filed for bankruptcy, leading to significant store closures; however, affluent consumers continued to support retail growth, highlighting the ongoing K-shaped recovery in the economy.
- Tightening Real Estate Market: With a slowdown in bankruptcies, retail real estate demand is expected to tighten, particularly in major retail markets, as retailers compete for limited commercial space, potentially leading to rising rents in the coming years.
See More
US Retail Store Closures Decline as Industry Stabilizes
- Decline in Store Closures: It is projected that U.S. retailers will close approximately 7,900 stores in 2026, representing a 4.5% year-over-year decrease, marking the lowest closure rate in three years as the retail sector moves past a wave of bankruptcies.
- Increase in New Openings: According to Coresight Research, U.S. retailers are expected to open about 5,500 new stores in 2026, a 4.4% increase year-over-year, indicating the continued appeal of value-focused retailers in attracting consumer spending.
- Supply and Demand Dynamics: As demand for retail space rises and supply diminishes, developers may find renewed opportunities to construct new strip malls, potentially revitalizing the retail landscape and driving future growth.
- Economic Factors at Play: Coresight's global research head anticipates that while high inflation and a sluggish housing market continue to impact retail, these economic pressures are expected to ease over the coming year, leading to improved real estate plans for retailers.
See More
Market Dynamics and Company Performances in U.S. Stocks
- Fed Chair Nomination: President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair, likely easing market concerns about Fed independence, although the December producer price index exceeded expectations, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures.
- Apple's Strong Performance: Apple reported robust iPhone demand and service growth in its latest earnings, particularly in China, while memory shortages may pose challenges; however, the stock is on track to break an eight-week losing streak, reflecting solid investor confidence.
- Sandisk Stock Surge: Following a strong earnings report, Sandisk's stock soared 22%, marking a 175% increase year-to-date, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target from $320 to $700, indicating strong future growth potential.
- Broadcom Upgrade: Wolfe Research upgraded Broadcom from hold to buy with a price target of $400, citing expectations that AI revenue could double by 2027, highlighting the company's growth potential in tensor processing units.
See More
Distillate Capital Announces Q4 2025 Portfolio Adjustments
- Portfolio Changes: Distillate Capital's Q4 2025 rebalancing saw the U.S. Fundamental Stability & Value Composite purchase Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Vistra (VST), and TE Connectivity (TEL), while divesting from Elevance Health (ELV), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and Lowe's Companies (LOW), indicating a strategic shift in healthcare and consumer sectors.
- Increases and Reductions: The U.S. FSV Strategy increased stakes in Uber Technologies (UBER), T-Mobile US (TMUS), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC), while trimming positions in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck & Co. (MRK), and Cisco Systems (CSCO), reflecting changing confidence in technology and energy sectors.
- Small Cap Investments: The U.S. Small/Mid Cap Quality & Value Composite acquired CF Industries Holdings (CF), Molson Coors Beverage (TAP), and Toll Brothers (TOL), exiting Range Resources (RRC), Gap (GAP), and TopBuild (BLD), showcasing a proactive approach towards small-cap stocks.
- International Investment Dynamics: The International Fundamental Stability & Value Composite acquired Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), HD HYUNDAI, and Rio Tinto (RIO), while divesting from SK Hynix (HXSC.F), LVMH (LVMHF), and Aluminum Corporation of China (ALMMF), highlighting a focus on international mining and consumer goods.
See More
Gap (GAP) Appoints New Chief Entertainment Officer to Expand Fashiontainment Strategy
- New Position Creation: Gap (GAP) has appointed Pam Kaufman, CEO of Paramount's International Markets, as Chief Entertainment Officer, aiming to enhance brand value through entertainment content and licensing platforms, reporting directly to CEO Richard Dickson, indicating the company's commitment to the entertainment sector.
- Clear Strategic Goals: The newly established entertainment division will focus on multimedia areas such as music, TV, gaming, and sports, leveraging innovative storytelling to strengthen connections with consumers, thereby driving sales growth and brand relevance.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following the announcement of the new strategy, Gap's (GAP) stock rose over 1% on Thursday, breaking a four-day losing streak, indicating market recognition and anticipation for its
See More
