Trump's Executive Orders Fuel Tech, Weaken Energy Stocks In His First Week: Immigration, Tariff Reforms On Cards But Experts Say 'Don't Play Politics With Your Portfolio' (CORRECTED)
Trump's First Week Impact on Markets: President Trump's initial week in office saw the S&P 500 reach a record high, driven by his focus on technology, tariffs, energy reform, and immigration. However, experts caution investors against mixing politics with investment decisions, emphasizing that market forces typically outweigh political influences over time.
Sector-Specific Reforms and Market Reactions: The administration's push for energy reforms may lower prices and affect revenue for energy companies, while immigration policies could disrupt labor markets and potentially lead to inflation. Additionally, investments in artificial intelligence are expected to benefit tech stocks, with notable gains seen in companies like Microsoft and Nvidia following the announcement of the Stargate project.
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- Earnings Performance: TotalEnergies reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.48, demonstrating the company's stable profitability amid market fluctuations, which enhances investor confidence.
- Dividend Growth Plan: The company announced a dividend of €3.40 per share for 2025, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous year, which not only underscores its commitment to shareholder returns but may also attract more long-term investors.
- Low-Carbon Investment Strategy: TotalEnergies expects net investments of around $15 billion in 2026, with approximately $3 billion dedicated to low-carbon energies, indicating the company's focus on sustainable development and its aim to enhance competitiveness in the green energy market.
- Cash Savings Plan: The multi-year cash savings plan targets $12.5 billion in savings from 2026 to 2030, including $2.5 billion planned for 2026, showcasing TotalEnergies' commitment to optimizing costs and improving operational efficiency.
- Full Ownership: TotalEnergies has acquired 100% ownership of the Zeeland refinery in the Netherlands, regaining the 45% stake previously held by Russia's Lukoil, thereby strengthening its position in the European market.
- Transaction Context: It remains unclear whether TotalEnergies paid for the shares or engaged in an asset swap with its Russian projects, but this move is clearly a strategic response to Lukoil's international asset sale amid sanctions.
- Sanction Impact: Following the Trump administration's sanctions on Lukoil in October, which prompted the company to sell its international assets, concerns about future transactions involving Zeeland, despite it not being formally sanctioned, led TotalEnergies to act.
- Market Confidence: This acquisition not only enhances TotalEnergies' control in the refining sector but may also boost investor confidence in its future profitability, especially given the increasing uncertainties in the global energy market.
- Security Cooperation Priority: The EU has opted to prioritize security cooperation over democratic concerns in light of Russian aggression and energy insecurity, despite criticism regarding Turkey's democratic backsliding, aiming to strengthen security partnerships to address regional threats.
- Reduced Energy Dependence: Turkey's role as a key transit route for Caspian gas and oil can help the EU decrease its reliance on Russian energy, particularly following heightened vigilance against Russia after the Ukraine war.
- Drone Market Collaboration: The EU has proposed the creation of a 'drone wall' that would heavily rely on Turkey's rapidly expanding drone industry, with Baykar Technology exporting $1.8 billion worth of drones in 2024, 90% of which came from foreign sales, enhancing Europe's defense capabilities.
- Trade Expansion Initiative: The EU has announced a new investment study aimed at expanding trade with Turkey and surrounding regions, and although Turkey's EU membership negotiations remain stalled, both sides are committed to improving the functioning of the Customs Union to foster closer economic ties.
- Buyback Plan Adjustment: TotalEnergies announced a 50% reduction in its quarterly stock buyback to $750 million to manage debt levels and adapt to declining oil prices, reflecting a cautious approach to financial management.
- Dividend Remains Steady: Despite a 13% year-over-year decline in adjusted net income to $3.84 billion, TotalEnergies maintains its dividend at €0.85 per share and expects to announce an increase by the end of April, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns.
- Production and Earnings Growth: Q4 oil and gas production rose nearly 5% year-over-year to 2.545 million boe/day, with expectations to exceed 2.6 million boe/day in Q1, driven by new projects in Brazil and Iraq, indicating a positive outlook for upstream production.
- Savings Target Set: TotalEnergies aims for $12.5 billion in savings from 2026 to 2030, including $2.5 billion this year, highlighting the company's strategic focus on cost control and resource allocation to navigate future market uncertainties.
- Earnings Highlights: TotalEnergies reported adjusted earnings of $1.73 per share for Q4 2025, missing the $1.78 consensus estimate, although revenue reached $50.62 billion, exceeding expectations of $33.94 billion, indicating resilience in revenue growth despite challenges.
- Net Income Decline: The adjusted net income fell 15% year-over-year to $3.8 billion due to lower oil prices, reflecting pressure on profitability from market conditions, which could impact investor confidence moving forward.
- Commitment to Shareholders: The company declared a final interim dividend of €0.85 per share and repurchased $7.5 billion worth of shares over the year, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder returns aimed at enhancing market appeal for its stock.
- Future Outlook: TotalEnergies plans to achieve a 3% growth in oil and gas production in 2026 and expects a 7% increase in cash flow at $60/b oil price, while implementing a multi-year cash savings plan targeting $12.5 billion, showcasing a proactive approach to future growth.
- Partnership Extension: Palantir Technologies has signed a multi-year agreement with Airbus to expand their collaboration on the Skywise open data platform, aimed at enhancing the integration of aviation engineering and operational data, thereby strengthening both companies' competitiveness in aerospace manufacturing and supply chain management.
- User Base Growth: The Skywise platform currently boasts over 50,000 users leveraging it for daily operations, indicating its widespread adoption and significance in the aviation industry, which further drives Palantir's market penetration and brand influence.
- Technological Innovation: Palantir's Executive Vice-President Josh Harris emphasized that this partnership will enable the company to deliver “secure, AI-enabled capabilities” utilizing multiple large language models (LLMs) to improve manufacturing, supply chain, and maintenance and flight operations, enhancing overall operational efficiency.
- Market Reaction: Despite a 2.14% decline in Palantir's stock price to $139.51 at market close on Tuesday, the stock saw a slight rebound of 0.26% to $139.86 in after-hours trading, reflecting a cautiously optimistic market outlook on the long-term prospects of the partnership.








