Toast Faces AI Impact, Stock Down Over 40%
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy TOST?
Source: Fool
- Market Uncertainty Intensifies: Toast's stock has plummeted over 40% from its summer high due to the impact of artificial intelligence on software stocks, with nearly $1 trillion wiped off the industry, highlighting investor anxiety about future prospects.
- Customer Growth and Challenges: The company added a record 30,000 net locations last year, capturing about 20% of the U.S. small and mid-market restaurant sector, yet future growth hinges on restaurant chains, international markets, and retail, which currently contribute only 5% to annual recurring revenue.
- AI Assistant Launch: The recent introduction of Toast IQ, an AI assistant that quickly performs tasks and analyzes data, aims to aid restaurant owners and staff in decision-making; however, advancements in AI may lead customers to prefer developing their own software, increasing competitive pressure on Toast.
- Risk of Declining Software Margins: While Toast achieved an 80% software gross margin in Q4, the potential for AI to reduce software costs poses a threat to its pricing power, especially as payments account for 82% of total revenue, raising concerns about future profitability.
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Analyst Views on TOST
Wall Street analysts forecast TOST stock price to rise
21 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 27.400
Low
36.00
Averages
47.00
High
60.00
Current: 27.400
Low
36.00
Averages
47.00
High
60.00
About TOST
Toast, Inc. is a cloud-based, all-in-one digital technology platform purpose-built for the entire restaurant community. It provides a platform of software-as-a-service (SaaS) products and financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, restaurant-grade hardware, and a broad ecosystem of third-party partners. It serves as the restaurant operating system, connecting front of house and back of house operations across service models including dine-in, takeout, delivery, catering, and retail. Its products include point-of-sale (POS) & restaurant operations, marketing, online ordering & delivery, team management, vendor management, retail, and financial technology solutions. Its in-store POS and restaurant operations offerings are built to help reduce time to take an order, optimize operations, and handle payments. Its marketing products provide integrated solutions to deliver targeted email and SMS campaigns, build loyalty programs, offer gift cards, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Toast Faces AI Impact, Stock Down Over 40%
- Market Uncertainty Intensifies: Toast's stock has plummeted over 40% from its summer high due to the impact of artificial intelligence on software stocks, with nearly $1 trillion wiped off the industry, highlighting investor anxiety about future prospects.
- Customer Growth and Challenges: The company added a record 30,000 net locations last year, capturing about 20% of the U.S. small and mid-market restaurant sector, yet future growth hinges on restaurant chains, international markets, and retail, which currently contribute only 5% to annual recurring revenue.
- AI Assistant Launch: The recent introduction of Toast IQ, an AI assistant that quickly performs tasks and analyzes data, aims to aid restaurant owners and staff in decision-making; however, advancements in AI may lead customers to prefer developing their own software, increasing competitive pressure on Toast.
- Risk of Declining Software Margins: While Toast achieved an 80% software gross margin in Q4, the potential for AI to reduce software costs poses a threat to its pricing power, especially as payments account for 82% of total revenue, raising concerns about future profitability.
See More
Toast Faces AI Challenges Amid Market Uncertainty
- Market Uncertainty Intensifies: Toast's stock has plummeted over 40% from its summer peak, reflecting market anxiety regarding the software sector, particularly as AI technology rapidly evolves, resulting in nearly $1 trillion in industry value evaporating and impacting investor confidence.
- Customer Growth and Challenges: While Toast added a record 30,000 net locations last year and its system is used by about 20% of small to mid-sized restaurants in the U.S., it faces challenges in expanding its market share against large chains that prefer to build their own systems, complicating the build-versus-buy decision.
- Software Margin Improvement: Toast achieved an 80% gross margin on software in Q4, contributing approximately 45% of total gross profit despite payments making up 82% of total revenue, indicating the value and profitability of its software system; however, advancements in AI may undermine its pricing power.
- Cash Flow Improvement and Valuation: Toast has transitioned from negative cash flow three years ago to nearly $608 million in free cash flow last year, with a current P/FCF ratio of 27; however, given the intensifying competition and concerns over long-term survival, the market discount on its valuation is understandable.
See More
Overreaction to AI Threats Causes Software Stock Declines
- Software Stock Decline: The software sector has experienced a significant downturn due to an overreaction to perceived threats from AI, which has negatively impacted investor confidence and led to a notable drop in valuations of high-quality software companies.
- Selective Investment Opportunities: Despite the bearish market sentiment, analysts believe that certain high-quality software stocks, particularly ServiceNow (NOW), remain fundamentally strong and are worthy of consideration for investment.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Analysts suggest that the market's panic over AI may be exaggerated, with limited actual impact on these companies, prompting investors to reassess their long-term potential and seize buying opportunities.
- Video Content Recommendation: The video elaborates on four software stocks deemed worthy of purchase, encouraging investors to focus on these undervalued quality assets and consider positioning themselves during the market pullback.
See More
Toast Releases 2025 Restaurant Trends Report
- Sales Growth Trend: In 2025, Toast's selected restaurant cohorts saw significant sales growth in handcrafted beverages, with lattes up 4.0%, espresso shots up 3.3%, and Americanos up 1.4%, indicating a rising consumer preference for premium drinks that could enhance the company's competitive edge in the high-end market.
- Decline of Traditional Beverages: Conversely, traditional drinks like regular hot drip coffee and cold brew fell by 3.3% and 2.2%, respectively, reflecting a shift in consumer preference towards convenience and novelty, which may impact market share and sales strategies for these products.
- Stable Tipping Rates: In Q4 2025, tipping rates remained steady at 19.2% for full-service restaurants and 15.8% for quick-service restaurants, with Delaware leading at an average tip of 21.8%, while California ranked lowest at 17.2%, showcasing regional differences in consumer tipping behavior.
- Beverage Consumption Trends: Energy drinks and diet sodas experienced growth of 8.7% and 7.4%, respectively, suggesting that consumers are increasingly opting for convenient beverage options, which may prompt restaurants to adjust their product offerings to align with changing market demands.
See More
Toast Partners with Teriyaki Madness for Nationwide Expansion
- Technology Partnership Expansion: Toast is deploying its enterprise technology suite across over 200 locations of Teriyaki Madness, aiming to support rapid expansion, enhance operational efficiency, and improve customer experience.
- Operational Efficiency Boost: By implementing Toast Flex hardware and Kitchen Display Systems, TMAD will significantly increase order processing speed, thereby meeting growing customer demand and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Brand Strategic Synergy: The collaboration between TMAD and Toast represents not just technical support but a strategic partnership for sustained growth in the fast-casual dining sector, enhancing brand recognition nationwide.
- Broad Market Prospects: As TMAD expands across 41 states, Toast's technology will equip franchisees with the necessary tools to operate more efficiently, driving overall business growth and increasing market share.
See More
Disney Appoints New CEO and Earnings Highlights
- New CEO Appointment: Disney has announced that Josh D’Amaro, the current chairman of Disney Experiences, will officially succeed Bob Iger as CEO on March 18, which is expected to drive strategic execution during the company's transformation phase.
- Executive Departure: The company also revealed that Kristina Schake, senior executive vice president and chief communications officer, will depart after March 18, a move that may impact internal communications and brand image management.
- Toast Earnings Beat: Toast reported fourth-quarter earnings of 16 cents per share on February 12, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 13 cents, with quarterly sales of $1.633 billion also surpassing expectations of $1.620 billion, indicating strong market demand.
- ServiceNow's Strong Performance: ServiceNow reported approximately $3.57 billion in fourth-quarter revenue on January 28, beating the consensus estimate of $3.53 billion, with adjusted earnings of 92 cents per share, also above the analyst estimate of 88 cents, reflecting its ongoing growth potential.
See More
Toast Faces AI Impact, Stock Down Over 40%
- Market Uncertainty Intensifies: Toast's stock has plummeted over 40% from its summer high due to the impact of artificial intelligence on software stocks, with nearly $1 trillion wiped off the industry, highlighting investor anxiety about future prospects.
- Customer Growth and Challenges: The company added a record 30,000 net locations last year, capturing about 20% of the U.S. small and mid-market restaurant sector, yet future growth hinges on restaurant chains, international markets, and retail, which currently contribute only 5% to annual recurring revenue.
- AI Assistant Launch: The recent introduction of Toast IQ, an AI assistant that quickly performs tasks and analyzes data, aims to aid restaurant owners and staff in decision-making; however, advancements in AI may lead customers to prefer developing their own software, increasing competitive pressure on Toast.
- Risk of Declining Software Margins: While Toast achieved an 80% software gross margin in Q4, the potential for AI to reduce software costs poses a threat to its pricing power, especially as payments account for 82% of total revenue, raising concerns about future profitability.
See More
Toast Faces AI Challenges Amid Market Uncertainty
- Market Uncertainty Intensifies: Toast's stock has plummeted over 40% from its summer peak, reflecting market anxiety regarding the software sector, particularly as AI technology rapidly evolves, resulting in nearly $1 trillion in industry value evaporating and impacting investor confidence.
- Customer Growth and Challenges: While Toast added a record 30,000 net locations last year and its system is used by about 20% of small to mid-sized restaurants in the U.S., it faces challenges in expanding its market share against large chains that prefer to build their own systems, complicating the build-versus-buy decision.
- Software Margin Improvement: Toast achieved an 80% gross margin on software in Q4, contributing approximately 45% of total gross profit despite payments making up 82% of total revenue, indicating the value and profitability of its software system; however, advancements in AI may undermine its pricing power.
- Cash Flow Improvement and Valuation: Toast has transitioned from negative cash flow three years ago to nearly $608 million in free cash flow last year, with a current P/FCF ratio of 27; however, given the intensifying competition and concerns over long-term survival, the market discount on its valuation is understandable.
See More
Overreaction to AI Threats Causes Software Stock Declines
- Software Stock Decline: The software sector has experienced a significant downturn due to an overreaction to perceived threats from AI, which has negatively impacted investor confidence and led to a notable drop in valuations of high-quality software companies.
- Selective Investment Opportunities: Despite the bearish market sentiment, analysts believe that certain high-quality software stocks, particularly ServiceNow (NOW), remain fundamentally strong and are worthy of consideration for investment.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Analysts suggest that the market's panic over AI may be exaggerated, with limited actual impact on these companies, prompting investors to reassess their long-term potential and seize buying opportunities.
- Video Content Recommendation: The video elaborates on four software stocks deemed worthy of purchase, encouraging investors to focus on these undervalued quality assets and consider positioning themselves during the market pullback.
See More
Toast Releases 2025 Restaurant Trends Report
- Sales Growth Trend: In 2025, Toast's selected restaurant cohorts saw significant sales growth in handcrafted beverages, with lattes up 4.0%, espresso shots up 3.3%, and Americanos up 1.4%, indicating a rising consumer preference for premium drinks that could enhance the company's competitive edge in the high-end market.
- Decline of Traditional Beverages: Conversely, traditional drinks like regular hot drip coffee and cold brew fell by 3.3% and 2.2%, respectively, reflecting a shift in consumer preference towards convenience and novelty, which may impact market share and sales strategies for these products.
- Stable Tipping Rates: In Q4 2025, tipping rates remained steady at 19.2% for full-service restaurants and 15.8% for quick-service restaurants, with Delaware leading at an average tip of 21.8%, while California ranked lowest at 17.2%, showcasing regional differences in consumer tipping behavior.
- Beverage Consumption Trends: Energy drinks and diet sodas experienced growth of 8.7% and 7.4%, respectively, suggesting that consumers are increasingly opting for convenient beverage options, which may prompt restaurants to adjust their product offerings to align with changing market demands.
See More
Toast Partners with Teriyaki Madness for Nationwide Expansion
- Technology Partnership Expansion: Toast is deploying its enterprise technology suite across over 200 locations of Teriyaki Madness, aiming to support rapid expansion, enhance operational efficiency, and improve customer experience.
- Operational Efficiency Boost: By implementing Toast Flex hardware and Kitchen Display Systems, TMAD will significantly increase order processing speed, thereby meeting growing customer demand and enhancing market competitiveness.
- Brand Strategic Synergy: The collaboration between TMAD and Toast represents not just technical support but a strategic partnership for sustained growth in the fast-casual dining sector, enhancing brand recognition nationwide.
- Broad Market Prospects: As TMAD expands across 41 states, Toast's technology will equip franchisees with the necessary tools to operate more efficiently, driving overall business growth and increasing market share.
See More
Disney Appoints New CEO and Earnings Highlights
- New CEO Appointment: Disney has announced that Josh D’Amaro, the current chairman of Disney Experiences, will officially succeed Bob Iger as CEO on March 18, which is expected to drive strategic execution during the company's transformation phase.
- Executive Departure: The company also revealed that Kristina Schake, senior executive vice president and chief communications officer, will depart after March 18, a move that may impact internal communications and brand image management.
- Toast Earnings Beat: Toast reported fourth-quarter earnings of 16 cents per share on February 12, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 13 cents, with quarterly sales of $1.633 billion also surpassing expectations of $1.620 billion, indicating strong market demand.
- ServiceNow's Strong Performance: ServiceNow reported approximately $3.57 billion in fourth-quarter revenue on January 28, beating the consensus estimate of $3.53 billion, with adjusted earnings of 92 cents per share, also above the analyst estimate of 88 cents, reflecting its ongoing growth potential.
See More
