Tesla Falls Behind in Robotaxi Race
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 17 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Increased Market Competition: Amazon's Zoox is set to test its purpose-built robotaxis in Austin, Texas, and Miami, marking a significant expansion in Tesla's home turf and intensifying competitive pressure on Tesla in the robotaxi sector.
- Development Delays: Tesla's robotaxi pilot launched in Austin last June, but CEO Elon Musk's initial prediction of covering half the U.S. population by the end of 2025 has been revised, with plans to expand to seven cities in the first half of 2026, indicating slow progress.
- Investor Concerns: According to Bank of America, Tesla's robotaxi business accounts for 52% of its overall valuation, while its automotive segment only represents 21%, highlighting the critical link between Tesla's future performance and its success in autonomous driving and robotics, raising investor anxiety over its overpromising tendencies.
- Safety Issues: Early data shows Tesla's robotaxis have a significantly higher crash rate compared to competitor Waymo, reflecting shortcomings in its technological development, which could negatively impact the company's future market performance and stock price.
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Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to rise
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 371.750
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 371.750
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Weak Delivery Expectations: Wall Street anticipates Tesla will report approximately 365,645 global deliveries in Q1, while independent researcher Troy Teslike projects around 375,000 vehicles, both figures falling short of last year's 336,681 deliveries, highlighting diminishing market confidence in Tesla.
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- Declining U.S. Registrations: In Q1 2023, Tesla's U.S. vehicle registrations totaled 119,900, reflecting a 12.5% year-over-year decline, indicating persistent weakness in domestic demand that could adversely affect future delivery performance.
- Weak Delivery Expectations: Wall Street anticipates Tesla will report approximately 365,645 global deliveries in Q1, while independent researcher Troy Teslike projects around 375,000 vehicles, both figures falling short of last year's 336,681 deliveries, highlighting diminishing market confidence in Tesla.
- Sales Continue to Drop: Tesla sold 41,300 vehicles in March, down 7.9% year-over-year, although slightly above February's 38,500 units, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines, which underscores ongoing demand challenges in the market.
- Bearish Market Sentiment: According to Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Tesla has remained in the 'bearish' territory over the past week, with investors expressing low expectations for Q1 deliveries, contributing to a 15% decline in TSLA stock year-to-date.
See More
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- Performance Decline: The ARKK ETF fell 12% in the latest quarter, marking its worst performance since early 2025, primarily due to significant impacts from Tesla's stock volatility, highlighting ARKK's heavy reliance on Tesla.
- Tesla's Optimistic Outlook: Despite challenges, ARK maintains a $2,600 price forecast for Tesla by 2029, implying a market cap of $9.75 trillion, reflecting confidence in Tesla's future growth potential, particularly in robotics and autonomous driving.
- Autonomous Driving Market Potential: Cathie Wood stated that autonomy will be Tesla's largest revenue driver, with expectations of scaling to a $10 trillion market, emphasizing the company's potential to achieve autonomy in 25% to 50% of major U.S. cities by year-end.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: While sentiment towards ARKK remains bullish, Tesla's sentiment fluctuated between bearish and extremely bearish during the quarter, indicating market uncertainty regarding Tesla's future performance amid intensifying competition.
See More
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- Delivery Growth: Leapmotor delivered 110,155 new energy vehicles in Q1 2025, marking a nearly 26% year-over-year increase and exceeding 100,000 units for the fourth consecutive quarter, demonstrating strong performance in a competitive market.
- Market Competition: While BYD remains the market leader with 688,993 cars sold in Q1, its sales dropped 30% year-over-year, reflecting the sluggishness of the Chinese automotive market and intensifying competition.
- Export Target Setting: Leapmotor aims to sell 1 million cars in China this year, with an export target of 100,000 to 150,000 units, and although it does not disclose overseas sales figures, its domestic performance has outpaced most rivals.
- Global Expansion Strategy: Leapmotor's partnership with Stellantis is enhancing its global market presence, with over 800 sales and service outlets in Europe by the end of 2025 and the establishment of its first overseas innovation center in Munich, Germany, showcasing its commitment and capability for internationalization.
See More
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- Sales Growth: Tesla's China-made electric vehicle sales rose nearly 9% year-on-year in March, reaching 85,670 units compared to 78,828 units a year earlier, indicating the company's sustained growth potential in the Chinese market.
- Sequential Surge: The sales increased by 46% from February's 58,599 units, demonstrating effective sales strategies and strong market demand in the short term, which further solidifies Tesla's market position.
- Bearish Market Sentiment: Despite the sales increase, Tesla shares fell over 2% in Thursday's pre-market trading, reflecting investor concerns about the company's future performance, which could impact its short-term stock price.
- Retail Sentiment Analysis: Retail sentiment around Tesla on Stocktwits trended bearish, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future, which may exert downward pressure on its stock price.
See More
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- Extended Conflict Timeline: Trump's prime-time address indicated that while “the hard part is done,” he warned of intensified strikes against Iran, potentially targeting critical infrastructure, which dashed hopes for a ceasefire and caused crude oil prices to surge past $108 per barrel.
- Futures Market Reaction: Following Trump's remarks, Dow futures fell nearly 1%, S&P 500 futures declined by 1.1%, Nasdaq futures dropped 1.3%, and Russell 2000 futures slumped 1.5%, reflecting investor anxiety about the market's future amid geopolitical tensions.
- Bearish Retail Sentiment: Retail sentiment towards the SPDR S&P 500 ETF and Invesco QQQ Trust remains at an “extremely bearish” level with high trading volumes, indicating significant investor concerns that could impact future capital inflows into these funds.
- Threats to Tech Companies: Iran's Revolutionary Guard issued direct threats against 18 U.S. tech giants, labeling their Middle Eastern operations as “legitimate targets” for retaliation, warning employees to evacuate workplaces immediately, which could lead to increased volatility in related stocks.
See More
Ford Unveils Low-Cost EV Plans to Compete with Tesla
- EV Platform Initiative: Ford is targeting a ~$30,000 electric pickup by 2027 to compete with Tesla's Model Y and Model 3, although current EV sales remain weak and analysts are cautious about the company's prospects.
- Stock Performance Decline: Ford's stock fell over 2% in the past week despite CEO Farley's announcement of the new EV initiative, indicating persistent bearish sentiment in the market regarding the automaker's electric vehicle future amidst broader industry challenges.
- Sales Data Warning: In February, Ford's total U.S. vehicle sales dropped 5.5% year-over-year, with EV sales plummeting 37.7%, highlighting weak consumer demand for electric vehicles and the company's underperformance in the EV market.
- Analyst Rating Downgrade: Wells Fargo lowered Ford's price target from $11 to $10, maintaining an 'Underweight' rating, citing multiple market drivers moving in unfavorable directions, which adds to Ford's market pressures.
See More
