SpaceX IPO Expected to Drive Investor Participation, Valuation Over $1T
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy TSLA?
SpaceX's eventual IPO is expected to create intense pressure on professional investors to participate, even at a valuation north of $1T, simply because sitting out may be too risky, The Information's Martin Peers reports. That urgency has only grown after Nasdaq approved rule changes allowing very large companies to join its major index just 15 days after listing, which is far sooner than the previous three month wait and float requirements, the author notes. Fund managers fret that if they sit out the SpaceX offering and the shares soar, their performance will look dismal. Musk and his bankers are well aware of the buying pressure they're putting on fund managers. They've got something like $75B worth of stock to sell, the publication adds.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy TSLA?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to rise
30 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
11 Hold
7 Sell
Hold
Current: 355.280
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
Current: 355.280
Low
25.28
Averages
401.93
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tesla Faces Tough Start to 2026 with Declining Deliveries and Margins
- Significant Stock Decline: Tesla's stock has lost over 20% since the beginning of 2026, currently trading around $356, which may attract investor interest but also signals potential further downside risks.
- Declining Delivery Expectations: The company is expected to deliver approximately 366,000 vehicles in Q1 2026, representing a 9% year-over-year increase, yet a 13% sequential drop from 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025, indicating serious challenges in delivery performance.
- Deteriorating Profitability: Tesla's latest operating margin fell to 5.7%, down from 6.2% year-over-year, and earnings per share plummeted 60% to $0.24, highlighting the company's financial struggles amid fierce competition and pricing pressures.
- Increased Capital Expenditures: With capital expenditures reaching $8.5 billion in 2025 and expected to rise in 2026, these investments may offer long-term growth opportunities but significantly elevate the company's risk profile.
See More
Rivian Automotive Stock Shows Significant Upside Potential
- Significant Valuation Gap: Rivian's price-to-sales ratio stands at just 3.2 times, compared to Tesla's over 13 times, indicating that if Rivian were valued similarly to Tesla, there could be over 300% upside potential, highlighting its undervaluation.
- Emulating Tesla's Success: The upcoming R2 SUV from Rivian is priced under $50,000, which is expected to attract a large consumer base, akin to the success of Tesla's Model Y, a model that significantly contributes to Tesla's sales and valuation, potentially driving Rivian's growth.
- Broad Market Opportunities: R2 deliveries are set to begin next month, and while it may take years to reach peak sales volumes, the launch of this new model is seen as a critical growth catalyst for Rivian, especially given the rising demand for SUVs.
- Robotaxi Market Potential: Rivian is heavily investing in AI to achieve full autonomy, with experts estimating the robotaxi market could reach $10 trillion; Uber's agreement to purchase up to 50,000 Rivian R2s underscores the confidence in Rivian's vision and market potential.
See More
Rivian Stock Shows Significant Growth Potential
- Valuation Gap: Rivian's price-to-sales ratio stands at just 3.2 times, compared to Tesla's over 13 times, suggesting that if Rivian were valued similarly to Tesla, its stock could see an upside of more than 300%, indicating that the market has yet to fully recognize Rivian's potential.
- R2 SUV Launch: Rivian is set to begin deliveries of its first model priced under $50,000, the R2 SUV, next month, which is expected to attract a significant consumer base amid rising demand for SUVs, potentially serving as a key growth driver for the company.
- Robotaxi Market Opportunity: Rivian is significantly investing in AI technology with the aim of achieving full autonomy in the coming years, as experts predict the robotaxi market could eventually be worth $10 trillion, positioning Rivian for substantial long-term gains in this emerging sector.
- Partnership with Uber: Uber has agreed to purchase up to 50,000 Rivian R2s to power its robotaxi division, providing Rivian with a stable order source while enhancing its market recognition and brand influence in the competitive EV landscape.
See More
US Stocks Surge on Hopes for End to Iran War
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 index rose by 2.91%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.49%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 3.43%, reflecting market optimism regarding the potential end of the Iran war, which could lower energy prices and ease inflation concerns.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The US March consumer confidence index unexpectedly increased by 0.8 to 91.8, surpassing the anticipated decline to 87.9, indicating a strengthening consumer outlook that may drive spending and economic growth.
- Strength in China: China's March manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, better than the expected 50.1, signaling signs of economic recovery that could positively impact global growth prospects and further support US stock performance.
- Falling Bond Yields: The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped to 4.28%, a one-week low, reflecting reduced inflation worries, which may provide support for the stock market and enhance investor interest in equities.
See More
Nio Reports First Quarterly Profit Amid Delivery Optimism
- Stock Surge: Nio (NYSE:NIO) closed at $6.03 on Tuesday, up 9.44%, driven by strong technical momentum and optimism surrounding March deliveries, reflecting market confidence in its earnings potential.
- Volume Spike: Trading volume reached 70.1 million shares, approximately 48% above the three-month average of 47.4 million shares, indicating a significant increase in investor interest that may signal future growth potential.
- Strong Delivery Expectations: Nio forecasts Q1 2026 deliveries between 80,000 and 83,000 units, and if it meets the midpoint of 33,500 units, it could further boost stock prices and enhance market confidence in its profitability.
- International Expansion: Nio's first Nio House in Costa Rica marks its entry into Latin America, while its success in Europe contributed to its first quarterly profit, demonstrating the effectiveness of its global market strategy.
See More
Tesla Stock Rises 4.52% Amid Market Rally
- Market Rally Impact: Tesla's stock rose 4.64% to close at $371.75 on Tuesday, driven by a broader market rally and a favorable analyst report, indicating renewed investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.
- Surge in Trading Volume: The trading volume reached 73.4 million shares, nearly 19% above the three-month average of 61.5 million shares, suggesting a significant increase in market interest towards Tesla, potentially signaling a shift in investor sentiment.
- Declining Delivery Expectations: Despite the stock rebound, first-quarter delivery expectations are projected between 365,000 and 366,000, indicating a sequential decline that highlights the disconnect between improving sentiment and weakening short-term demand, which could impact future performance.
- Future Key Indicator: The delivery report on April 2 will be a crucial indicator of whether Tesla's core auto business can stabilize; if demand remains weak, it may pose challenges to the company's autonomy and long-term growth expectations.
See More
Tesla Faces Tough Start to 2026 with Declining Deliveries and Margins
- Significant Stock Decline: Tesla's stock has lost over 20% since the beginning of 2026, currently trading around $356, which may attract investor interest but also signals potential further downside risks.
- Declining Delivery Expectations: The company is expected to deliver approximately 366,000 vehicles in Q1 2026, representing a 9% year-over-year increase, yet a 13% sequential drop from 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025, indicating serious challenges in delivery performance.
- Deteriorating Profitability: Tesla's latest operating margin fell to 5.7%, down from 6.2% year-over-year, and earnings per share plummeted 60% to $0.24, highlighting the company's financial struggles amid fierce competition and pricing pressures.
- Increased Capital Expenditures: With capital expenditures reaching $8.5 billion in 2025 and expected to rise in 2026, these investments may offer long-term growth opportunities but significantly elevate the company's risk profile.
See More
Rivian Automotive Stock Shows Significant Upside Potential
- Significant Valuation Gap: Rivian's price-to-sales ratio stands at just 3.2 times, compared to Tesla's over 13 times, indicating that if Rivian were valued similarly to Tesla, there could be over 300% upside potential, highlighting its undervaluation.
- Emulating Tesla's Success: The upcoming R2 SUV from Rivian is priced under $50,000, which is expected to attract a large consumer base, akin to the success of Tesla's Model Y, a model that significantly contributes to Tesla's sales and valuation, potentially driving Rivian's growth.
- Broad Market Opportunities: R2 deliveries are set to begin next month, and while it may take years to reach peak sales volumes, the launch of this new model is seen as a critical growth catalyst for Rivian, especially given the rising demand for SUVs.
- Robotaxi Market Potential: Rivian is heavily investing in AI to achieve full autonomy, with experts estimating the robotaxi market could reach $10 trillion; Uber's agreement to purchase up to 50,000 Rivian R2s underscores the confidence in Rivian's vision and market potential.
See More
Rivian Stock Shows Significant Growth Potential
- Valuation Gap: Rivian's price-to-sales ratio stands at just 3.2 times, compared to Tesla's over 13 times, suggesting that if Rivian were valued similarly to Tesla, its stock could see an upside of more than 300%, indicating that the market has yet to fully recognize Rivian's potential.
- R2 SUV Launch: Rivian is set to begin deliveries of its first model priced under $50,000, the R2 SUV, next month, which is expected to attract a significant consumer base amid rising demand for SUVs, potentially serving as a key growth driver for the company.
- Robotaxi Market Opportunity: Rivian is significantly investing in AI technology with the aim of achieving full autonomy in the coming years, as experts predict the robotaxi market could eventually be worth $10 trillion, positioning Rivian for substantial long-term gains in this emerging sector.
- Partnership with Uber: Uber has agreed to purchase up to 50,000 Rivian R2s to power its robotaxi division, providing Rivian with a stable order source while enhancing its market recognition and brand influence in the competitive EV landscape.
See More
US Stocks Surge on Hopes for End to Iran War
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 index rose by 2.91%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.49%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 3.43%, reflecting market optimism regarding the potential end of the Iran war, which could lower energy prices and ease inflation concerns.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The US March consumer confidence index unexpectedly increased by 0.8 to 91.8, surpassing the anticipated decline to 87.9, indicating a strengthening consumer outlook that may drive spending and economic growth.
- Strength in China: China's March manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, better than the expected 50.1, signaling signs of economic recovery that could positively impact global growth prospects and further support US stock performance.
- Falling Bond Yields: The 10-year Treasury note yield dropped to 4.28%, a one-week low, reflecting reduced inflation worries, which may provide support for the stock market and enhance investor interest in equities.
See More
Nio Reports First Quarterly Profit Amid Delivery Optimism
- Stock Surge: Nio (NYSE:NIO) closed at $6.03 on Tuesday, up 9.44%, driven by strong technical momentum and optimism surrounding March deliveries, reflecting market confidence in its earnings potential.
- Volume Spike: Trading volume reached 70.1 million shares, approximately 48% above the three-month average of 47.4 million shares, indicating a significant increase in investor interest that may signal future growth potential.
- Strong Delivery Expectations: Nio forecasts Q1 2026 deliveries between 80,000 and 83,000 units, and if it meets the midpoint of 33,500 units, it could further boost stock prices and enhance market confidence in its profitability.
- International Expansion: Nio's first Nio House in Costa Rica marks its entry into Latin America, while its success in Europe contributed to its first quarterly profit, demonstrating the effectiveness of its global market strategy.
See More
Tesla Stock Rises 4.52% Amid Market Rally
- Market Rally Impact: Tesla's stock rose 4.64% to close at $371.75 on Tuesday, driven by a broader market rally and a favorable analyst report, indicating renewed investor confidence in the company's growth prospects.
- Surge in Trading Volume: The trading volume reached 73.4 million shares, nearly 19% above the three-month average of 61.5 million shares, suggesting a significant increase in market interest towards Tesla, potentially signaling a shift in investor sentiment.
- Declining Delivery Expectations: Despite the stock rebound, first-quarter delivery expectations are projected between 365,000 and 366,000, indicating a sequential decline that highlights the disconnect between improving sentiment and weakening short-term demand, which could impact future performance.
- Future Key Indicator: The delivery report on April 2 will be a crucial indicator of whether Tesla's core auto business can stabilize; if demand remains weak, it may pose challenges to the company's autonomy and long-term growth expectations.
See More
