Toll Brothers Earnings Report: Toll Brothers (TOL) stock fell after Q4 earnings missed Wall Street expectations, reporting an EPS of $4.58 compared to the estimated $4.89, largely due to delays in selling its Apartment Living business stake.
Top Homebuilding Stocks: Seeking Alpha’s Quant Ratings ranked Cavco Industries (CVCO) highest at 4.35, followed by Green Brick Partners (GRBK) at 4.19 and Champion Homes (SKY) at 3.99, all receiving "Buy" ratings.
Quant Rating System: The Quant system evaluates stocks based on performance metrics like valuation and growth, with ratings above 3.5 considered bullish and those below 2.5 viewed as bearish.
Additional Homebuilding Stocks: Other notable stocks include Installed Building Products (IBP) and Century Communities (CCS), both rated as "Hold" with scores of 3.29 and 3.24, respectively.
Wall Street analysts forecast TOL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TOL is 150.00 USD with a low forecast of 110.00 USD and a high forecast of 181.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast TOL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TOL is 150.00 USD with a low forecast of 110.00 USD and a high forecast of 181.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 148.540
Low
110.00
Averages
150.00
High
181.00
Current: 148.540
Low
110.00
Averages
150.00
High
181.00
BofA
Buy
maintain
$150 -> $160
2026-01-16
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$150 -> $160
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Toll Brothers to $160 from $150 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. After underperforming the market in 2025, homebuilder stocks have rallied sharply year-to-date, but the firm believes weaker employment and migration trends, ongoing inflation and a more competitive selling environment driven by elevated new and resale inventory will pressure fundamentals through 2026 and make it a "reset year for homebuilders," the analyst tells investors in a year ahead note on the group.
Citizens
Outperform
initiated
$175
2026-01-07
Reason
Citizens
Price Target
$175
2026-01-07
initiated
Outperform
Reason
Citizens initiated coverage of Toll Brothers with an Outperform rating and $175 price target. The firm believes the company's focus on active adult and move-up customers has resulted in a demand base that is less rate sensitive than peers. Citizens also sees Toll returning cash to shareholders via buybacks and dividends "as another sign of its positive trajectory."
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for TOL
Unlock Now
JPMorgan
Overweight -> Buy
downgrade
$161 -> $141
2025-12-12
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$161 -> $141
2025-12-12
downgrade
Overweight -> Buy
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Toll Brothers to $141 from $161 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following the earnings report. The company's fiscal 2026 closings and gross margin guidance came in below estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm reduced estimates but keeps a relative buy rating on the shares.
Keefe Bruyette
Jade Rahmani
Market Perform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$145 -> $143
2025-12-11
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Jade Rahmani
Price Target
$145 -> $143
2025-12-11
downgrade
Market Perform -> Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette analyst Jade Rahmani lowered the firm's price target on Toll Brothers to $143 from $145. Toll Brothers is well-positioned vs. entry-level builders, but the challenging environment keeps the firm at Market Perform, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
About TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc. is a builder of luxury homes. The Company builds new homes and communities in over 60 markets across the United States, serving first-time, move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The Company also operates its own architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, smart home technology, landscape, and building components manufacturing businesses. It designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges financing for an array of luxury residential single-family detached, attached, master-planned, resort-style golf, and urban low-, mid-, and high-rise communities. It also develops and operates urban and suburban for-rent apartment and student housing communities (Apartment Living) primarily through joint ventures. These projects are located in various metropolitan areas throughout the country and have generally been operated or developed with partners under the brand names Toll Brothers Apartment Living and Toll Brothers Campus Living.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
