Oracle Shares Drop 13% Following Disappointing Forecast
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 11 2025
0mins
Should l Buy ORCL?
Markets are under pressure this morning as index futures slide following disappointing corporate news and lingering concerns over the technology sector. Oracle's shares are sharply lower after a downbeat forecast and heavy capital spending tied to its AI business. This drag on tech names like Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom and other AI-linked equities has knocked futures lower and put a cooler tone on the market.Globally, markets are mixed. Some Gulf markets are holding modest gains in response to the Fed easing, while Asian and European tech-heavy indices have softened in the wake of the tech selloff. Currency and bond markets are also reacting to the Fed's messaging and macro dynamics.In pre-market trading, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%, Nasdaq futures fell 0.62% and Dow futures were flat.Check out this morning's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER -Geminiup 9% after receiving a designated contract market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which will allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customersCorbus Pharmaceuticalsup 8% after completing the single ascending dose and multiple ascending dose Phase 1a study of CRB-913Eli Lillyup 1% after reporting each dose of retatrutide met all primary and key secondary endpoints in its TRIUMPH-4 clinical trialUP AFTER EARNINGS -Cienaup 8%DOWN AFTER EARNINGS -Oracledown 13%Oxford Industriesdown 21%Lovesacdown 16%Hooker Furnituredown 14%Manchester Uniteddown 2%Vera Bradleydown 1%
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Analyst Views on ORCL
Wall Street analysts forecast ORCL stock price to rise
34 Analyst Rating
25 Buy
9 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 147.110
Low
180.00
Averages
309.59
High
400.00
Current: 147.110
Low
180.00
Averages
309.59
High
400.00
About ORCL
Oracle Corporation offers integrated suites of applications plus secure, autonomous infrastructure in the Oracle Cloud. The Company operates through three businesses: cloud and license, hardware and service. Its cloud and license business is engaged in the sale, marketing and delivery of its enterprise applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings, and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. Its hardware business provides infrastructure technologies including Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments. Its services business provides services to customers and partners to help maximize the performance of their investments in Oracle applications and infrastructure technologies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Oracle's AI Business Uncertainty Leads to Stock Volatility
- Earnings Volatility: Oracle reported remaining performance obligations (RPOs) of $455 billion in its fiscal Q1 2023, indicating potential in its AI data center business; however, the stock has plummeted nearly 50% due to market doubts about sustainability.
- Debt Pressure: To complete its AI data center build-out, Oracle needs to raise up to $50 billion in debt, raising concerns among investors about its financial health, especially given the weak margins in its data center business.
- Analyst Optimism: Despite challenges, Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci remains bullish on Oracle, setting a price target of $400, suggesting nearly 170% upside, reflecting confidence in its cloud infrastructure and database technology.
- OpenAI Financing Boost: OpenAI's successful $120 billion private financing round enhances market confidence in its future infrastructure commitments, positively impacting Oracle's AI business outlook and potentially alleviating investor concerns.
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- Iran's Response: Despite Trump's claim that Iran's new regime requested a ceasefire, Iranian officials denied this request, stating that there are currently no negotiations, which adds complexity and uncertainty to the situation and could affect market sentiment.
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- Microsoft Energy Partnership: Microsoft is in exclusive talks with Chevron and investment fund Engine No. 1 to build a $7 billion natural gas power plant in West Texas, projected to generate 2,500 MW of electricity, which will support a large data center operation.
- Cal-Maine Earnings Beat: Cal-Maine Foods reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue down 53% year-over-year to $667 million, yet the stock rose 3.85%, indicating investor confidence in future recovery.
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Oracle Cuts Thousands of Jobs to Support AI Infrastructure Development
- Layoff Announcement: Oracle has begun notifying its 162,000 employees about plans to cut thousands of jobs to free up cash flow for AI data center infrastructure development, which is expected to significantly reduce operating costs and enhance financial flexibility.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following the layoff news, Oracle's shares rose 2.6% in early trading, despite being down approximately 25% year-to-date, indicating a cautiously optimistic market response to the company's future strategy.
- Capital Expenditure Pressure: Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion in 2025 through a mix of debt and equity to meet cloud service demand from clients, particularly from companies like Nvidia and Meta, reflecting strong market demand for AI infrastructure.
- Analyst Perspective: Barclays analysts noted that the layoffs will help free up cash flow and viewed this move as unsurprising, projecting that Oracle could triple its revenue over the next few years, despite lower employee productivity compared to competitors.
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- Nike's Performance Fluctuations: Nike beat Wall Street's expectations in its earnings report, but concerns over declining sales forecasts led to a more than 10% drop in its stock during after-hours trading, reflecting market apprehension regarding its performance in China and overall uncertainty.
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- Earnings Volatility: Oracle reported remaining performance obligations (RPOs) of $455 billion in its fiscal Q1 2023, indicating potential in its AI data center business; however, the stock has plummeted nearly 50% due to market doubts about sustainability.
- Debt Pressure: To complete its AI data center build-out, Oracle needs to raise up to $50 billion in debt, raising concerns among investors about its financial health, especially given the weak margins in its data center business.
- Analyst Optimism: Despite challenges, Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci remains bullish on Oracle, setting a price target of $400, suggesting nearly 170% upside, reflecting confidence in its cloud infrastructure and database technology.
- OpenAI Financing Boost: OpenAI's successful $120 billion private financing round enhances market confidence in its future infrastructure commitments, positively impacting Oracle's AI business outlook and potentially alleviating investor concerns.
See More
Trump's Address Triggers Market Volatility
- War Progress Update: In his national address, Trump claimed unprecedented victories in the U.S. campaign dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury,' while forecasting the conflict to last another two to three weeks, heightening market concerns about future developments.
- Oil Price Surge: Following the speech, international benchmark Brent crude futures rose nearly 6%, with Trump attributing the price increase to Iranian attacks on commercial oil tankers, illustrating the direct impact of geopolitical tensions on energy markets.
- Negative Market Reaction: Asia-Pacific markets broadly declined after Trump's address, with major indices such as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 all retreating, reflecting investor unease about the future situation.
- Escalating Tensions with Iran: Trump threatened that the U.S. would continue to strike Iran hard unless the Strait of Hormuz is 'open, free, and clear,' indicating a worsening relationship between the U.S. and Iran that could affect global energy supplies.
See More
U.S. Markets Rise on Optimism Over Middle East Situation
- Market Optimism: All three major U.S. indexes rose on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.72% and 1.16%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 224.23 points or 0.48%, reflecting heightened investor optimism regarding a potential end to the U.S.-Iran war.
- Trump's Address Anticipation: President Trump is expected to address the nation at 9 p.m. ET tonight to provide updates on the Iran ceasefire talks, with market participants closely monitoring the speech for potential impacts on stock prices.
- Iran's Response: Despite Trump's claim that Iran's new regime requested a ceasefire, Iranian officials denied this request, stating that there are currently no negotiations, which adds complexity and uncertainty to the situation and could affect market sentiment.
- Tech Company Developments: SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO, setting the stage for a record offering, following a significant funding round for OpenAI, indicating strong activity and investor confidence in the tech sector, which may drive related stock prices higher.
See More
Stock Futures Rise as Wall Street Eyes Four Key Stocks
- Oracle Layoffs: Oracle is laying off employees globally to cut costs, although the exact number of layoffs is undisclosed, this move aims to bolster its artificial intelligence infrastructure, potentially enhancing its competitive edge in the AI sector.
- Microsoft Energy Partnership: Microsoft is in exclusive talks with Chevron and investment fund Engine No. 1 to build a $7 billion natural gas power plant in West Texas, projected to generate 2,500 MW of electricity, which will support a large data center operation.
- Cal-Maine Earnings Beat: Cal-Maine Foods reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue down 53% year-over-year to $667 million, yet the stock rose 3.85%, indicating investor confidence in future recovery.
- NIO Strong Deliveries: NIO delivered 35,486 electric vehicles in March, a 136% year-over-year increase, with total deliveries for Q1 reaching 83,465 vehicles, marking a 98.3% growth, and cumulative deliveries surpassing 1 million, reflecting robust growth in the EV market.
See More
Oracle Cuts Thousands of Jobs to Support AI Infrastructure Development
- Layoff Announcement: Oracle has begun notifying its 162,000 employees about plans to cut thousands of jobs to free up cash flow for AI data center infrastructure development, which is expected to significantly reduce operating costs and enhance financial flexibility.
- Stock Price Reaction: Following the layoff news, Oracle's shares rose 2.6% in early trading, despite being down approximately 25% year-to-date, indicating a cautiously optimistic market response to the company's future strategy.
- Capital Expenditure Pressure: Oracle plans to raise up to $50 billion in 2025 through a mix of debt and equity to meet cloud service demand from clients, particularly from companies like Nvidia and Meta, reflecting strong market demand for AI infrastructure.
- Analyst Perspective: Barclays analysts noted that the layoffs will help free up cash flow and viewed this move as unsurprising, projecting that Oracle could triple its revenue over the next few years, despite lower employee productivity compared to competitors.
See More
Stock Market Rebounds Amid OpenAI's Record Funding Round
- Market Rebound: The stock market experienced its best day since May after an unconfirmed report indicated that the Iranian president is open to ending the U.S.-Iran war, although the major indexes still logged significant losses in March, highlighting market volatility.
- Nike's Performance Fluctuations: Nike beat Wall Street's expectations in its earnings report, but concerns over declining sales forecasts led to a more than 10% drop in its stock during after-hours trading, reflecting market apprehension regarding its performance in China and overall uncertainty.
- Voting Rights Regulation: President Trump signed an executive order limiting mail-in voting, which faced immediate backlash from voting rights advocates and could lead to legal challenges ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, potentially impacting voter access.
- OpenAI Funding Milestone: OpenAI announced a record-breaking funding round, raising $122 billion in committed capital, enhancing its IPO potential, despite not yet achieving profitability, indicating strong market interest in its future prospects.
See More
