Occidental Petroleum Q1 Earnings Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy OXY?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Optimistic Earnings Forecast: Occidental Petroleum is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of $0.70 in its Q1 financial results on May 6, and given the company's history of exceeding analyst expectations, investor confidence remains high.
- Impact of Rising Oil Prices: The ongoing conflict with Iran has driven oil and gas prices significantly higher throughout Q1, and Occidental's revenue, earnings, and free cash flow are anticipated to reflect these price increases, thereby enhancing the company's financial performance.
- Cash Flow Improvement: Occidental projects operational efficiency gains that could boost free cash flow by over $1.2 billion by 2026, with some benefits potentially visible in the Q1 report, further enhancing the company's operational efficiency.
- Asset Sale Provides Capital: The completion of Occidental's $9.7 billion sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway in January has provided substantial cash for accelerating debt reduction, a move likely to be well-received by investors and bolster market confidence.
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Analyst Views on OXY
Wall Street analysts forecast OXY stock price to fall
16 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
9 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 55.380
Low
38.00
Averages
47.27
High
64.00
Current: 55.380
Low
38.00
Averages
47.27
High
64.00
About OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation is an international energy company with assets primarily in the United States, the Middle East and North Africa. The Company is an oil and gas producer in the United States, including a producer in the Permian and DJ basins, and the offshore Gulf of Mexico. Its segments include oil and gas, and midstream and marketing. The oil and gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil (which includes condensate), natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas. The Company's midstream and marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports, and stores oil (which includes condensate), NGL, natural gas, carbon dioxide (CO2) and power. The midstream and marketing segment provides flow assurance and maximizes the value of its oil and gas. It also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities that conduct similar activities. This segment also includes low-carbon venture businesses.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Debt Pressure: The company carries a significant amount of debt on its balance sheet due to two major acquisitions over the past seven years, which increases its financial risk during volatile oil price periods.
- Geopolitical Impact: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz had previously benefited Occidental as competitors were cut off, but renewed negotiations have led to a 7.2% drop in oil prices, creating a more uncertain market environment for the company.
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- Pampa Energia: This independent energy-integrated company in Argentina has an expected year-over-year earnings growth rate of 24.1% for 2026, and its earnings consensus estimate has been revised upward by 0.7% in the last 60 days, reflecting robust performance in the energy sector.
- Occidental Petroleum: As an integrated oil and gas company, Occidental Petroleum is projected to have a year-over-year earnings growth rate of 40.3% for 2026, with its earnings consensus estimate revised up by 377% over the past 60 days, showcasing its competitive edge and investment attractiveness in the industry.
- First American Financial: Focused on real estate transactions, First American Financial has an expected earnings growth rate of 5.5% for 2026, with its earnings consensus estimate revised up by 3.4% in the past 60 days, demonstrating stability and growth potential in the real estate market.
See More
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- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 has erased all declines since the onset of the Iran war and is nearing an all-time high, reflecting investor optimism about potential progress in US-Iran negotiations, which could drive further stock market gains.
- Economic Blockade Impact: The full implementation of the US blockade on Iranian ports has cut off international sea trade that powers about 90% of Iran's economy, potentially leading to further economic deterioration in Iran while also creating ripple effects in the global energy market.
- International Relations Strain: The US's maximum pressure campaign not only affects Iran but also strains relationships with China and India, particularly as nearly all Iranian oil exports are directed to China, complicating regional dynamics.
- Corporate Developments: European chip manufacturing giant ASML has exceeded first-quarter revenue expectations with sales topping 8.8 billion euros, indicating that the tech sector continues to show robust growth amid global economic uncertainties, likely attracting more investor interest.
See More
U.S.-Iran Negotiation Optimism Fuels Stock Market Rally
- Stock Market Surge: The S&P 500 index has rallied for nine out of the last ten trading sessions, nearing its all-time high, driven by investor optimism regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations, indicating strong confidence in future economic recovery.
- Strait of Hormuz Blockade: President Trump announced a new blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting about 20% of global oil supply, with over 10,000 U.S. military personnel and several warships enforcing it, further complicating the uncertain situation in the Middle East.
- Aviation Industry Crisis: Experts warn that if the blockade persists, Europe's airline industry could face a
See More
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- Market Rally: The S&P 500 rose by 1.18%, reaching a two-month high, while the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.81%, reflecting strong investor optimism ahead of the earnings season, particularly as major banks prepare to report.
- Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude oil prices fell over 7% due to potential US-Iran ceasefire extensions, which will lower jet fuel costs for airlines, thereby boosting profitability and further supporting stock market gains.
- Inflation Data Impact: The March PPI report showed a 4.0% year-over-year increase, below the expected 4.6%, indicating easing inflation pressures that could influence the Fed's rate hike decisions, leading to more cautious market expectations regarding future monetary policy.
- Airline Stocks Surge: American Airlines Group saw its stock rise over 8% as a result of falling oil prices, demonstrating market confidence in the airline industry's recovery and reflecting investor optimism about the profitability potential from lower fuel costs.
See More
US Stocks Rally as Oil Prices Plunge
- Strong Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose by 0.77%, the Dow Jones by 0.59%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.98%, reflecting optimism about economic recovery, particularly with the potential extension of the US-Iran ceasefire.
- Significant Oil Price Drop: WTI crude oil prices fell over 5% due to optimistic expectations surrounding US-Iran negotiations, which not only alleviates inflationary pressures but may also support the stock market, indicating confidence in future economic growth.
- Inflation Data Impact: The US March PPI rose 4.0% year-over-year, below the expected 4.6%, suggesting that rising fuel prices are slowly filtering into inflation statistics, potentially prompting the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance in upcoming policy meetings.
- Earnings Season Approaches: Q1 earnings for the S&P 500 are projected to increase by 12% year-over-year, although the growth is only 3% when excluding the tech sector, indicating a mix of expectations and caution among investors that could influence decision-making.
See More
Occidental Petroleum Shares Drop Amid Falling Oil Prices
- Stock Decline: Occidental Petroleum's shares fell 4.9% to $55.44 on Tuesday, primarily driven by a drop in oil prices, highlighting the company's high sensitivity to price fluctuations in the oil market.
- Debt Pressure: The company carries a significant amount of debt on its balance sheet due to two major acquisitions over the past seven years, which increases its financial risk during volatile oil price periods.
- Geopolitical Impact: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz had previously benefited Occidental as competitors were cut off, but renewed negotiations have led to a 7.2% drop in oil prices, creating a more uncertain market environment for the company.
- Profitability Outlook: Despite the short-term decline in oil prices, Occidental is expected to maintain high profitability and pay down more debt in the first half of the year, thereby reducing financial risk and appealing to investors interested in oil and gas exposure.
See More
