Nvidia's Chip Supply Stable, but GPU Production Delayed
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy NVDA?
Source: seekingalpha
- Supply Chain Stability: KeyBanc Capital Markets reported that Nvidia's CoWoS supply for 2026 remains at 650K (+76%), indicating stability in the chip supply chain, although the launch of the Rubin GPU line may face delays due to memory issues.
- Production Capacity Estimates: Analysts estimate that the CoWoS supply in 2026 will support 5.5M to 6M Blackwell GPUs, 1.5M Rubin GPUs, and 1M Hopper GPUs, reflecting sustained demand for Nvidia's high-performance computing solutions.
- Rubin GPU Production Adjustment: Due to qualification issues with high-bandwidth memory (HBM4), Nvidia has lowered its production target for Rubin GPUs from 2M to 1.5M, which may have a slight negative impact on its market share.
- Earnings Forecast Downgrade: Analysts reduced their estimates for Vera Rubin racks from 12,000-14,000 to 6,000; however, they maintain an Overweight rating and a $275 price target on Nvidia, demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
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Analyst Views on NVDA
Wall Street analysts forecast NVDA stock price to rise
41 Analyst Rating
39 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 177.390
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
Current: 177.390
Low
200.00
Averages
264.97
High
352.00
About NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation is an artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company. The Company is engaged in accelerated computing to help solve the challenging computational problems. Its segments include Compute & Networking and Graphics. The Compute & Networking segment includes its Data Center accelerated computing and networking platforms and AI solutions and software, and automotive platforms and autonomous and electric vehicle solutions, including software. The Graphics segment includes GeForce GPUs for gaming and personal computers (PCs), and Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics. Its technology stack includes the foundational NVIDIA CUDA development platform that runs on all NVIDIA GPUs, as well as hundreds of domain-specific software libraries, frameworks, algorithms, software development kits (SDKs), and application programming interfaces (APIs). Its platforms address four markets, which include Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, and Automotive.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Production Capacity Estimates: Analysts estimate that the CoWoS supply in 2026 will support 5.5M to 6M Blackwell GPUs, 1.5M Rubin GPUs, and 1M Hopper GPUs, reflecting sustained demand for Nvidia's high-performance computing solutions.
- Rubin GPU Production Adjustment: Due to qualification issues with high-bandwidth memory (HBM4), Nvidia has lowered its production target for Rubin GPUs from 2M to 1.5M, which may have a slight negative impact on its market share.
- Earnings Forecast Downgrade: Analysts reduced their estimates for Vera Rubin racks from 12,000-14,000 to 6,000; however, they maintain an Overweight rating and a $275 price target on Nvidia, demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
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- Strong GPU Sales: In Q4 of fiscal 2026, Nvidia reported sales of $68.1 billion, a 73% year-over-year increase, with the data center segment contributing $62.3 billion, up 75%, showcasing the company's sustained competitiveness in a high-demand market.
- New Product Launch: At the GTC conference, Nvidia unveiled NemoClaw, designed to provide AI agents for OpenClaw, demonstrating the company's innovative capabilities in agentic AI, which could further drive its market share growth.
- Market Capitalization Changes: Despite Nvidia's stock being down 15% from its all-time high, resulting in a market cap loss of approximately $1 trillion, CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that AI will be a crucial growth driver for the company, potentially prompting investors to reassess its investment value.
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- Future Revenue Projections: OpenAI anticipates generating $280 billion in annual revenue by 2030, up from just $13.1 billion last year, with nearly half of its 2026 sales expected from enterprise customers, highlighting the potential of its business model.
- User Base Growth: ChatGPT boasts 900 million weekly active users, far surpassing competitors, with 50 million paying customers and 9 million business users, demonstrating its strong market appeal and growth potential.
- Compute Spending Plans: OpenAI plans to reach $600 billion in total compute spending by 2030; despite investor concerns about rising AI expenditures, this spending will drive the demand for rapid revenue growth post-IPO.
See More
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See More
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- Supply Chain Stability: KeyBanc Capital Markets reported that Nvidia's CoWoS supply for 2026 remains at 650K (+76%), indicating stability in the chip supply chain, although the launch of the Rubin GPU line may face delays due to memory issues.
- Production Capacity Estimates: Analysts estimate that the CoWoS supply in 2026 will support 5.5M to 6M Blackwell GPUs, 1.5M Rubin GPUs, and 1M Hopper GPUs, reflecting sustained demand for Nvidia's high-performance computing solutions.
- Rubin GPU Production Adjustment: Due to qualification issues with high-bandwidth memory (HBM4), Nvidia has lowered its production target for Rubin GPUs from 2M to 1.5M, which may have a slight negative impact on its market share.
- Earnings Forecast Downgrade: Analysts reduced their estimates for Vera Rubin racks from 12,000-14,000 to 6,000; however, they maintain an Overweight rating and a $275 price target on Nvidia, demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
See More
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- Investment Value: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) ranks #10 in Ken Griffin's recommendations, with a stake valued at $909 million, highlighting its appeal among investors.
- Market Share: TSMC holds approximately 62% of the global foundry market and over 90% in advanced nodes (7nm and below), positioning it as a key beneficiary amid soaring AI chip demand.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company forecasts capital expenditures of $56 billion by 2026 and plans to invest $165 billion in the U.S. over the next few years, indicating strong growth potential and market confidence.
- Valuation Analysis: TSMC's stock trades at a forward P/E of 20x, slightly above its 5-year average of 19x, yet its robust moat and high-capacity production make it an attractive long-term investment.
See More
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