Nike Lowers Q3 Revenue Outlook, Shares Drop Over 10% After Hours
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Softer than feared CPI data and better than expected results out of Micron overnight had helped restore bullish sentiment recently dented by concerns with debt-fueled AI capex cycle as S&P 500 ended the day up 0.8% while Nasdaq jumped 1.4% - bolstered by Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Internet names. Treasury yields also slipped across the curve, with fixed income traders pricing in a higher probability of a two-to-three 2026 rate cut scenario vs. the FOMC's expected one-cut outcome.The opening hour of the evening session is striking a more cautious tone however, with Dow Industrials futures slipping 0.2% and S&P 500 e-minis down a decimal, with investors reacting to disappointing quarterly update from Nike - while the company beat on earnings and revenue for Q2, its management forecast Q3 revenue oulook to be down low single digits from last year against consensus estimate of a 1% y/y increase. Shares of Nike were off by over 10% afterhours, with other athletic apparel names also down.Across commodities, growth worries are dominating again in the Energy space, with WTI Crude Oil reversing the Venezuela-blockade driven rally to retreat below $56 per barrel, while precious metals are consolidating recent gains.Check out this evening's top movers from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly.HIGHER AFTER EARNINGS -FedExup 1.4%HEICO Corporationup 1.1%ALSO HIGHER -WhiteFiberup 12.5% after signing 10-year 40 MW colocation agreement for NC-1 data center campusDOWN AFTER EARNINGS -Nikedown 10.5%; Deckersdown 2.4%, ON Holdingdown 1.6%, Dick's Sportingdown 1.7% in sympathyBlackBerry Limiteddown 6.7%KB Homedown 4.6%Scholasticdown 1.3%
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Analyst Views on NKE
Wall Street analysts forecast NKE stock price to rise
21 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 64.820
Low
62.00
Averages
76.11
High
110.00
Current: 64.820
Low
62.00
Averages
76.11
High
110.00
About NKE
NIKE, Inc. is engaged in the designing, marketing and distributing of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories and services for sports and fitness activities. The Company's operating segments include North America; Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA); Greater China; and Asia Pacific & Latin America (APLA). It sells a line of equipment and accessories under the NIKE Brand name, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment and other equipment designed for sports activities. It also designs products specifically for the Jordan Brand and Converse. The Jordan Brand designs, distributes and licenses athletic and casual footwear, apparel and accessories predominantly focused on basketball performance and culture using the Jumpman trademark. The Company also designs, distributes and licenses casual sneakers, apparel and accessories under the Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron and Jack Purcell trademarks.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Hershey's Sales Growth Surprises: Hershey anticipates net sales growth of 4% to 5% in 2026, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 2.69%, while the CEO is pushing for innovation in healthier, zero-sugar products, which is likely to enhance market share and brand competitiveness.
- Nike's Attractive Valuation: Currently trading at a P/E of 20, Nike is well below its historical average of 31, and despite weak performance in Greater China, North America saw a 9% sales increase, with the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup expected to drive demand and profit growth.
- Market Rebound Potential: All three companies possess strong brand influence and market share in their respective sectors, and their current stock prices appear undervalued, presenting investors with an opportunity to capitalize on future rebounds through diversified investments.
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- Lululemon's International Growth: Lululemon's international revenue surged 33% year-over-year in Q3, with China alone up 46%, indicating that while U.S. revenue fell 3%, the international segment is becoming the main revenue driver, expected to boost future performance.
- Hershey's Strong Guidance: Hershey anticipates net sales growth of 4% to 5% in 2026, significantly exceeding the 2.69% forecasted by analysts, as CEO Kirk Tanner focuses on healthier, zero-sugar products, with gross margins expected to improve starting Q2 2026, showcasing strong recovery potential.
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- Disconnect Between Data and Sentiment: Despite rising economic output and stock market gains, ordinary Americans are feeling increased financial pressure, as evidenced by credit card debt reaching a record $1.28 trillion in Q4 last year, indicating that economic prosperity is not benefiting the majority.
- Uneven Inflation Impact: According to Morgan Stanley, lower-income consumers faced significantly higher inflation rates for food and housing in 2024 compared to wealthier counterparts, exacerbating the gap between economic growth and consumer confidence and highlighting social inequality.
- 'Hiring Recession' in Job Market: While economic output per hour hit new highs, ordinary workers are anxious as the job market tightens, with December job openings falling to their lowest level since 2020, reflecting the disparity in economic benefits between high-income stockholders and the general workforce.
- Crisis of Trust in Economic Data: Surveys reveal that nearly 60% of Americans believe the economy is in recession, particularly among low-income households facing unstable financial situations, leading to a decline in trust in government economic data and highlighting the significant gap between economic prosperity and public sentiment.
See More
U.S. Economy Faces 'Boomcession' Phenomenon
- Disconnection Between Growth and Sentiment: Despite the U.S. economy showing strong performance with a GDP growth rate of 4.3%, nearly 60% of Americans believe the economy is in recession, highlighting a stark contrast between economic data and the lived experiences of ordinary citizens who feel excluded from the benefits of growth.
- Uneven Inflation Impact: According to Morgan Stanley, lower-income consumers faced significantly higher inflation rates for essentials like food and housing in 2024, exacerbating economic pressures and deepening social inequality, which in turn affects consumer confidence and spending.
- Tightening Job Market: While the stock market continues to rally, job openings fell to their lowest level since 2020 in December, leading economists to describe the situation as a 'hiring recession,' which increases anxiety among lower-income individuals who feel more vulnerable in this fragile recovery.
- Declining Consumer Confidence: Recent surveys indicate that 41% of individuals with low credit scores and 54% of low-income households view their financial situations as 'unstable,' underscoring the growing gap between economic data and public sentiment, which could negatively impact future consumer spending.
See More
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- Turnaround Strategy: Nike replaced CEO John Donahoe with Elliott Hill in 2024, who is implementing the 'Win Now' strategy that leverages the brand's strength and innovation to expand sales channels through renewed wholesale agreements, aiming to drive revenue growth.
- Sales Growth Challenges: Despite an 8% increase in wholesale revenue last quarter, overall sales growth remained flat on a currency-neutral basis, highlighting the challenges Nike faces in market recovery, particularly with a 17% year-over-year decline in sales in China.
- Future Outlook: Analysts predict a significant rebound in Nike's earnings per share, forecasting $2.47 for fiscal 2027, up from $1.75 in fiscal 2026, indicating potential profitability recovery as the company overcomes the impact of Trump tariffs.
- Market Opportunities: The Chinese market presents substantial potential, with government plans to expand the sports industry to a $1 trillion market by 2030, and Nike, with its strong brand recognition and marketing strategies, may benefit from this growth in the coming years.
See More
Analysts Predict Shift to Value Stocks in 2026
- Turnaround Strategy: Nike replaced CEO John Donahue with Elliott Hill in 2024, who is implementing the 'Win Now' strategy that leverages the brand's strength and innovation capabilities to reverse the performance decline, although overall sales growth remains sluggish and flat.
- Wholesale Channel Growth: The company's wholesale revenue improved by 8% in the most recent quarter, yet gross margin contracted by 3 percentage points due to tariff impacts, indicating that efforts to diversify sales channels are gradually bearing fruit.
- North America and Europe Markets: North America saw a 9% revenue increase, while Europe grew by 3% after adjusting for foreign exchange effects, suggesting that Nike's growth momentum in these regions is accelerating, despite a 17% year-over-year sales decline in China.
- Future Outlook: Analysts forecast Nike's earnings per share to reach $2.47 for fiscal 2027, a significant increase from $1.75 for fiscal 2026, and although the current stock price is around $60 with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 25, Nike is expected to achieve a strong rebound in revenue and profitability in the long term.
See More
Three Consumer Stocks with Strong Upside Potential
- Lululemon's International Strength: Lululemon Athletica's international revenue surged 33% year-over-year, with China alone growing 46%, indicating that despite a 3% decline in the U.S. market, international operations are becoming the main revenue driver, expected to boost overall performance moving forward.
- Hershey's Sales Growth Surprises: Hershey anticipates net sales growth of 4% to 5% in 2026, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 2.69%, while the CEO is pushing for innovation in healthier, zero-sugar products, which is likely to enhance market share and brand competitiveness.
- Nike's Attractive Valuation: Currently trading at a P/E of 20, Nike is well below its historical average of 31, and despite weak performance in Greater China, North America saw a 9% sales increase, with the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup expected to drive demand and profit growth.
- Market Rebound Potential: All three companies possess strong brand influence and market share in their respective sectors, and their current stock prices appear undervalued, presenting investors with an opportunity to capitalize on future rebounds through diversified investments.
See More
International Markets Propel Lululemon and Nike's Recovery
- Lululemon's International Growth: Lululemon's international revenue surged 33% year-over-year in Q3, with China alone up 46%, indicating that while U.S. revenue fell 3%, the international segment is becoming the main revenue driver, expected to boost future performance.
- Hershey's Strong Guidance: Hershey anticipates net sales growth of 4% to 5% in 2026, significantly exceeding the 2.69% forecasted by analysts, as CEO Kirk Tanner focuses on healthier, zero-sugar products, with gross margins expected to improve starting Q2 2026, showcasing strong recovery potential.
- Nike's Attractive Valuation: Trading at a P/E of 20, Nike is undervalued compared to its historical average of 31, with a 9% sales increase in North America despite a 520 basis point tariff headwind, indicating early success of its
See More
The 'Boomcession' Phenomenon in the U.S. Economy
- Disconnect Between Data and Sentiment: Despite rising economic output and stock market gains, ordinary Americans are feeling increased financial pressure, as evidenced by credit card debt reaching a record $1.28 trillion in Q4 last year, indicating that economic prosperity is not benefiting the majority.
- Uneven Inflation Impact: According to Morgan Stanley, lower-income consumers faced significantly higher inflation rates for food and housing in 2024 compared to wealthier counterparts, exacerbating the gap between economic growth and consumer confidence and highlighting social inequality.
- 'Hiring Recession' in Job Market: While economic output per hour hit new highs, ordinary workers are anxious as the job market tightens, with December job openings falling to their lowest level since 2020, reflecting the disparity in economic benefits between high-income stockholders and the general workforce.
- Crisis of Trust in Economic Data: Surveys reveal that nearly 60% of Americans believe the economy is in recession, particularly among low-income households facing unstable financial situations, leading to a decline in trust in government economic data and highlighting the significant gap between economic prosperity and public sentiment.
See More
U.S. Economy Faces 'Boomcession' Phenomenon
- Disconnection Between Growth and Sentiment: Despite the U.S. economy showing strong performance with a GDP growth rate of 4.3%, nearly 60% of Americans believe the economy is in recession, highlighting a stark contrast between economic data and the lived experiences of ordinary citizens who feel excluded from the benefits of growth.
- Uneven Inflation Impact: According to Morgan Stanley, lower-income consumers faced significantly higher inflation rates for essentials like food and housing in 2024, exacerbating economic pressures and deepening social inequality, which in turn affects consumer confidence and spending.
- Tightening Job Market: While the stock market continues to rally, job openings fell to their lowest level since 2020 in December, leading economists to describe the situation as a 'hiring recession,' which increases anxiety among lower-income individuals who feel more vulnerable in this fragile recovery.
- Declining Consumer Confidence: Recent surveys indicate that 41% of individuals with low credit scores and 54% of low-income households view their financial situations as 'unstable,' underscoring the growing gap between economic data and public sentiment, which could negatively impact future consumer spending.
See More
Nike's Turnaround: Opportunities and Challenges
- Turnaround Strategy: Nike replaced CEO John Donahoe with Elliott Hill in 2024, who is implementing the 'Win Now' strategy that leverages the brand's strength and innovation to expand sales channels through renewed wholesale agreements, aiming to drive revenue growth.
- Sales Growth Challenges: Despite an 8% increase in wholesale revenue last quarter, overall sales growth remained flat on a currency-neutral basis, highlighting the challenges Nike faces in market recovery, particularly with a 17% year-over-year decline in sales in China.
- Future Outlook: Analysts predict a significant rebound in Nike's earnings per share, forecasting $2.47 for fiscal 2027, up from $1.75 in fiscal 2026, indicating potential profitability recovery as the company overcomes the impact of Trump tariffs.
- Market Opportunities: The Chinese market presents substantial potential, with government plans to expand the sports industry to a $1 trillion market by 2030, and Nike, with its strong brand recognition and marketing strategies, may benefit from this growth in the coming years.
See More
Analysts Predict Shift to Value Stocks in 2026
- Turnaround Strategy: Nike replaced CEO John Donahue with Elliott Hill in 2024, who is implementing the 'Win Now' strategy that leverages the brand's strength and innovation capabilities to reverse the performance decline, although overall sales growth remains sluggish and flat.
- Wholesale Channel Growth: The company's wholesale revenue improved by 8% in the most recent quarter, yet gross margin contracted by 3 percentage points due to tariff impacts, indicating that efforts to diversify sales channels are gradually bearing fruit.
- North America and Europe Markets: North America saw a 9% revenue increase, while Europe grew by 3% after adjusting for foreign exchange effects, suggesting that Nike's growth momentum in these regions is accelerating, despite a 17% year-over-year sales decline in China.
- Future Outlook: Analysts forecast Nike's earnings per share to reach $2.47 for fiscal 2027, a significant increase from $1.75 for fiscal 2026, and although the current stock price is around $60 with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 25, Nike is expected to achieve a strong rebound in revenue and profitability in the long term.
See More
