LyondellBasell Shares Drop Amid US-Iran Ceasefire
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 09 2026
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Should l Buy LYB?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Stock Decline: LyondellBasell's shares fell by 7.53% on Wednesday, closing at $74.22, primarily due to investors selling off positions following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, indicating market concerns about the chemical industry's future outlook.
- Industry Impact: Chemical manufacturers like LyondellBasell had benefited from a month of missile strikes that disrupted supply and raised commodity prices, but the ceasefire's announcement quickly reversed this favorable situation, potentially leading to a decline in future earnings.
- Earnings Forecast: LyondellBasell is set to announce its first-quarter earnings on May 1 before market open, with a conference call to discuss results, as market expectations become cautiously optimistic amid volatility in feedstock and energy prices.
- Market Outlook: Despite challenges, tight inventories and seasonal demand in North America are expected to support polyethylene prices, while seasonal trends in Europe may improve demand, demonstrating the company's resilience in an uncertain environment.
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Analyst Views on LYB
Wall Street analysts forecast LYB stock price to fall
15 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
11 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 75.290
Low
36.00
Averages
47.29
High
57.00
Current: 75.290
Low
36.00
Averages
47.29
High
57.00
About LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is a global, independent chemical company creating solutions for everyday sustainable living. The Company's segments include Olefins and Polyolefins-Americas (O&P-Americas), Olefins and Polyolefins-Europe, Asia, International (O&P-EAI), Intermediates and Derivatives (I&D), Advanced Polymer Solutions (APS), and Technology. The O&P-Americas and O&P-EAI segments produces and markets olefins and co-products, polyethylene, and polypropylene. The I&D segment produces and markets propylene oxide (PO) and its derivatives, oxyfuels and related products, and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer (SM), and acetyls. The APS segment produces and markets compounding and solutions, such as polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, engineered composites, colors, and powders. The Technology segment develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Commodity Volatility Dependency: NDIV's income is contingent on market volatility; while the covered call strategy enhances income during high volatility, it also introduces uncertainty regarding dividends from holdings like Petrobras and LyondellBasell.
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- Dual Income Sources: The NDIV ETF targets over 10% annualized total income by combining high-dividend energy and natural resource stocks with covered call options, appealing to investors seeking commodity exposure without sacrificing yield.
- Distribution History Volatility: Monthly distributions ranged from $0.11 to $0.17 in 2024 and 2025, while February and March 2026 saw spikes to $0.27 and $0.30, reflecting income fluctuations directly tied to energy market volatility.
- Commodity Volatility Dependency: NDIV's income is contingent on market volatility; while the covered call strategy enhances income during high volatility, it also introduces uncertainty regarding dividends from holdings like Petrobras and LyondellBasell.
- Price Performance and Yield: NDIV shares have appreciated approximately 34% year-to-date and about 44% over the past year, indicating that investors have captured significant capital gains alongside income, with a current dividend yield near 5%.
See More
Dow Inc. Shares Plunge 10% Amid Market Rally
- Significant Stock Drop: Dow Inc. (DOW) shares fell approximately 10% on Friday, correlating with Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open, which alleviated concerns over supply disruptions, leading to poor performance in chemical commodity stocks.
- Weak Industry Performance: Similar to Dow, shares of LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) and CF Industries (CF) dropped 12% and 9%, respectively, indicating the vulnerability of chemical and energy stocks amidst a market rally, reflecting investor concerns over future supply chain stability.
- Chemical Market Dynamics: The Middle East is the largest exporter of commodity chemicals globally, and while the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may ease supply shocks, analysts expect that due to ongoing low liquid natural gas production, the global market will remain undersupplied, keeping prices elevated in the near term.
- Impact on Plastics Business: With over half of Dow's business reliant on plastic production, and plastic prices having risen 24% since the onset of the war, the company faces heightened risks amid supply chain changes, particularly against the backdrop of fluctuating energy prices.
See More
Middle East Tensions Ease, Chemical Stocks Plummet
- Market Plunge: Dow (DOW) and LyondellBasell (LYB) are the largest losers on the S&P 500, down 11.6% and 11.4% respectively, indicating a sharp market reaction to easing Middle East tensions.
- Energy Price Decline: The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and progress in U.S.-Iran talks have led to a significant pullback in energy and petrochemical prices, compressing pricing power for key products like polyethylene.
- Expectation Reset: Following a recent rally driven by rising crude prices and constrained global supply, chemical companies are now facing a reassessment of future earnings as these tailwinds fade and feedstock costs normalize.
- Sector-wide Decline: Other chemical stocks also suffered, with Celanese (CE) down 8.4% and Methanex (MEOH) down 8.2%, reflecting widespread pressure across the industry and a shift in market sentiment.
See More
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- Strong Stock Performance: LyondellBasell Industries NV (NYSE:LYB) has seen its shares rise by 32.5% over the past year and 71.5% year-to-date, indicating robust market performance and investor confidence.
- Analyst Rating Upgrade: Citigroup raised LyondellBasell's price target from $49 to $76 in March and upgraded its rating from Neutral to Buy, reflecting optimistic expectations for the company's future growth.
- Earnings Growth Forecast: Citi anticipates a 31% increase in LyondellBasell's operating income, driven by market changes due to the Iranian conflict, although uncertainties regarding the conflict's duration remain a concern.
- Competitive Market Advantage: Amid the Iranian conflict, LyondellBasell is positioned to benefit from lower margins for North American chemical producers, further solidifying its competitive stance in the global chemical industry.
See More
Citigroup Upgrades U.S. Stocks to Overweight Amid Iran Conflict Outlook
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Citigroup upgraded U.S. stocks to overweight from neutral on Monday, citing the eventual end of the U.S.-Iran conflict as a catalyst for market gains, indicating a positive outlook for year-end equities.
- S&P 500 Recovery: The S&P 500 closed at 6,886.24 on Monday, erasing losses since the conflict began, demonstrating market resilience in the face of geopolitical risks and reflecting a recovery in investor confidence.
- Sector Recommendations: Citigroup recommends investors focus on materials, healthcare, and tech stocks, with materials being the best-performing S&P 500 sector this year, up over 14%, while healthcare stocks like Moderna and DaVita have surged 72% and 33%, respectively, showcasing sector performance disparities.
- Institutional Attitude Shift: Following BlackRock, Citigroup becomes the second major institution this week to adopt a more positive stance on U.S. stocks, signaling growing confidence in the U.S. economic recovery, which may attract more capital inflows into the equity market.
See More
LyondellBasell Releases Proxy Materials for 2026 AGM
- AGM Announcement: LyondellBasell has scheduled its annual general meeting for May 22, 2026, at 8 a.m. Central European Summer Time, allowing shareholders to access proxy materials online, ensuring transparency and convenience.
- Proxy Material Access: The company has filed its 2025 annual report and 2026 proxy statement with the SEC, available on the investor website, and shareholders can request hard copies at no charge, reflecting the company's commitment to its investors.
- Environmental and Cost Savings: By opting for the SEC's Notice and Access rules, LyondellBasell aims to minimize environmental impact and reduce printing costs for proxy materials, showcasing its dedication to sustainability.
- Voting Rights Notification: Shareholders of record as of April 24, 2026, are entitled to vote, with voting instructions provided in the proxy materials and notice, ensuring shareholders can easily participate in corporate governance.
See More
