Larger Tax Refunds on the Way: Which Retailers Will Benefit the Most?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 24 2026
0mins
Should l Buy FIVE?
Source: Barron's
Impact on Wealthier Shoppers: Wealthier shoppers are expected to benefit significantly from President Trump's new tax bill, which is likely to provide them with larger refunds.
Retailers' Advantage: Retailers that cater to wealthier consumers are positioned to gain the most from the economic changes brought about by the tax bill.
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Analyst Views on FIVE
Wall Street analysts forecast FIVE stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
7 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 237.100
Low
132.00
Averages
193.47
High
242.00
Current: 237.100
Low
132.00
Averages
193.47
High
242.00
About FIVE
Five Below, Inc. is a specialty value retailer offering merchandise targeted at the tween and teen demographics. Its assortment of products, including select brands and licensed merchandise. It is engaged in offering a group of products, including leisure, fashion and home, and snacks and seasonal. Leisure includes items such as sporting goods, games, toys, tech, books, electronic accessories, arts and crafts, and party. Fashion and home include items, such as personal accessories, attitude t-shirts, beauty offerings, home goods and storage options. Snack and seasonal include items, such as seasonal goods, greeting cards, candy and other snacks, and beverages. It also offers its merchandise on the Internet, through its fivebelow.com e-commerce Website, offering home delivery and the option to buy online and pick up in store. It also sells its merchandise through on-demand third-party delivery services to enable its customers to shop online and receive convenient delivery.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Dutch Bros.' Rapid Expansion: Dutch Bros. reported a 29% revenue increase in its latest quarter, alongside a 7.7% rise in comparable-store sales, demonstrating its strong appeal among young consumers and significant market potential yet to be tapped.
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See More
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- Unique Competitive Edge: Ollie's ability to purchase cheap excess inventory at scale is a key driver behind Jefferies analyst Randal Konik's upgrade, underscoring the company's leading position in the discount retail sector.
- Significant Expansion Potential: With approximately 645 stores compared to its closest competitor's 159, Ollie's management sees growth opportunities to expand to 1,300 stores, indicating robust growth prospects.
- Changing Market Dynamics: As retail pressures increase, more clearance goods are available at discounted prices, while fewer buyers are competing, enhancing Ollie's sourcing advantages and further solidifying its market position.
See More
Three Retail Giants Gain Market Share
- Costco's Profit Growth: Costco's net margin has reached 3%, with membership fees contributing over half of its profits despite only accounting for 2% of revenue, showcasing its resilience and potential for sustained growth amid economic uncertainty.
- Dutch Bros.' Rapid Expansion: Dutch Bros. reported a 29% revenue increase in its latest quarter, alongside a 7.7% rise in comparable-store sales, demonstrating its strong appeal among young consumers and significant market potential yet to be tapped.
- Five Below's Strong Performance: Five Below's net sales surged 24% in the latest quarter, matching Dutch Bros.' growth momentum, indicating that under new CEO Winnie Park, the company is regaining market attention and is poised for continued growth in the coming years.
- Intensifying Market Competition: While these three companies operate in distinct niches, they are all gaining market share in their respective fields, reflecting a rising consumer demand for diverse retail experiences, which may lead to increased competition in the future.
See More
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- H World Group Growth Potential: H World Group Limited (HTHT), a hotel franchise based in China, holds a Zacks Rank of #1, with its current year earnings consensus estimate rising by 7.5% over the past 60 days, indicating strong profit growth potential and reinforcing its competitive position in the industry.
- Mistras Group Earnings Outlook: Mistras Group, Inc. (MG) also carries a Zacks Rank of #1, with its current year earnings consensus estimate increasing by 6.1% in the last 60 days, suggesting sustained demand in the industrial testing and inspection services sector, enhancing its future profitability.
- Five Below Strong Performance: Five Below, Inc. (FIVE), a specialty value retailer in the U.S., has a Zacks Rank of #1, with its current year earnings consensus estimate rising by 15.7% over the past 60 days, reflecting robust growth momentum in the retail market that may attract more investor interest.
- PEG Ratio Advantage: H World Group's PEG ratio stands at 1.07, Mistras at 1.06, and Five Below at 1.80, all indicating a relative advantage in growth potential and valuation compared to industry averages, which could draw more investor attention.
See More
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- Market Rally Momentum: The U.S. equity markets experienced a strong rally this week, driven by optimism surrounding a potential truce deal between the U.S. and Iran, bringing benchmark indices close to all-time highs and erasing losses from the Iran conflict, indicating increased investor confidence in future market conditions.
- Momentum Investment Strategy: Investors are shifting towards momentum stocks like Five Below, Permian Resources, and Alcoa when value or growth investing fails to yield desired profits, leveraging the adage 'the trend is your friend' to capitalize on prevailing market trends for sustained gains.
- Five Below Performance: Targeting the teenage market, Five Below's stock surged 250.8% over the past year, despite a 2.9% decline in the past week, with a Momentum Score of A indicating robust market performance and potential for future growth.
- Permian Resources and Alcoa: Permian Resources' stock rose 81.6% over the past year but fell 6.5% in the last week, while Alcoa's stock surged 191.1% but dropped 1.5% recently, with Momentum Scores of B and A respectively, highlighting their market potential.
See More
Tariff Volatility Impacts Retail Investing
- Ollie's Growth Amid Disruption: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with Q4 net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating strong performance amid tariff disruptions, as management stated, 'Tariffs are just another form of disruption, and we benefit from it.'
- Acquisition Opportunities: Ollie's acquired 63 former Big Lots locations through bankruptcy auctions, securing prime real estate in value-retail corridors, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300 locations, nearly doubling its current footprint, showcasing its ambitious growth strategy.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing 60% of its products from China, Five Below achieved a 15.4% comparable sales increase and a 24.3% revenue growth to $1.73 billion in Q4 fiscal 2025, reflecting its ability to navigate tariff pressures effectively.
- Future Outlook: Five Below's management guided for fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS expected between $7.74 and $8.25, indicating strong market adaptability and growth potential despite ongoing tariff costs.
See More
Ollie's and Five Below Navigate Tariff Challenges
- Ollie's Expansion Momentum: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with fourth-quarter net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating significant growth opportunities amid tariff-induced market disruptions.
- Inventory Acquisition Advantage: By acquiring 63 former Big Lots locations, Ollie's secured prime retail real estate, further solidifying its position in the value retail market, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300, nearly double its current footprint.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing about 60% of its products from China, Five Below successfully adjusted its product assortment post-tariff implementation in April 2025, achieving a 15.4% year-over-year surge in comparable sales and a 24.3% revenue increase to $1.73 billion in Q4, showcasing its strong market adaptability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Five Below projects fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS guidance of $7.74 to $8.25, exceeding consensus expectations despite ongoing tariff pressures, reflecting robust business resilience.
See More
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Upgraded to Buy by Jefferies
- Market Underappreciation: Jefferies upgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet from hold to buy and raised its price target from $120 to $130, indicating about 42% potential upside, highlighting the market's undervaluation of its growth potential.
- Unique Competitive Edge: Ollie's ability to purchase cheap excess inventory at scale is a key driver behind Jefferies analyst Randal Konik's upgrade, underscoring the company's leading position in the discount retail sector.
- Significant Expansion Potential: With approximately 645 stores compared to its closest competitor's 159, Ollie's management sees growth opportunities to expand to 1,300 stores, indicating robust growth prospects.
- Changing Market Dynamics: As retail pressures increase, more clearance goods are available at discounted prices, while fewer buyers are competing, enhancing Ollie's sourcing advantages and further solidifying its market position.
See More
