Larger Tax Refunds on the Way: Which Retailers Will Benefit the Most?

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

FIVE-0.71%

TJX-1.38%

COST-0.76%

Source: Barron's

Updated: 3d ago

0mins

Source: Barron's

Impact on Wealthier Shoppers: Wealthier shoppers are expected to benefit significantly from President Trump's new tax bill, which is likely to provide them with larger refunds.
Retailers' Advantage: Retailers that cater to wealthier consumers are positioned to gain the most from the economic changes brought about by the tax bill.

FIVE

$187.24+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on FIVE

Wall Street analysts forecast FIVE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FIVE is 193.47 USD with a low forecast of 132.00 USD and a high forecast of 242.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

19 Analyst Rating

11 Buy

7 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 188.570

Low

132.00

Averages

193.47

High

242.00

Current: 188.570

Low

132.00

Averages

193.47

High

242.00

Deutsche Bank

Krisztina Katai

resume

$242

2026-01-08

Reason

Deutsche Bank

Krisztina Katai

Price Target

$242

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

resume

Reason

Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai resumed coverage of Five Below with a Buy rating and $242 price target. The firm resumed coverage of the broadlines and food retailers. Deutsche expects 2026 to be another "mixed year," characterized by food disinflation, reduced government benefits, and consumers' value focus extending into the new year. The analyst says that while defensive sectors such as food retail could face a challenging setup, "there are tailwinds on the horizon," including a sizable stimulus in the first half of 2026.

Barclays

Equal Weight

maintain

$160 -> $193

2026-01-08

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$160 -> $193

2026-01-08

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays raised the firm's price target on Five Below to $193 from $160 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is positive on the broadlines, hardlines and food retail sector entering 2026. It sees improvements in discretionary goods demand with potential for a "modest bump" from consumer tax savings ahead and interest rate cuts.

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Bernstein

Zhihan Ma

Market Perform

maintain

$173 -> $179

2026-01-05

Reason

Bernstein

Zhihan Ma

Price Target

$173 -> $179

2026-01-05

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma raised the firm's price target on Five Below to $179 from $173 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. From a macro perspective, the firm expects middle to high income consumers to be better positioned in 2026. Elevated inflation and a softening labor market has weighed on the real spending power of lower income consumers. Meanwhile, incremental tax refunds from the OBBBA are expected to disproportionately benefit middle to high income cohorts, Bernstein adds.

Wells Fargo

Overweight

maintain

$190 -> $200

2025-12-19

Reason

Wells Fargo

Price Target

$190 -> $200

2025-12-19

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on Five Below to $200 from $190 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees a mixed overall 2026 outlook for the group, but with opportunity. Wells is bullish broadlines/food service, notes fiscal/tariff trade is underway, and believes momentum is sustainable through the first half of EPS revisions. With that said, the firm sees a tougher food retail outlook; idiosyncratic drivers are key.

About FIVE

Five Below, Inc. is a specialty value retailer offering merchandise targeted at the tween and teen demographics. Its assortment of products, including select brands and licensed merchandise. It is engaged in offering a group of products, including leisure, fashion and home, and snacks and seasonal. Leisure includes items such as sporting goods, games, toys, tech, books, electronic accessories, arts and crafts, and party. Fashion and home include items, such as personal accessories, attitude t-shirts, beauty offerings, home goods and storage options. Snack and seasonal include items, such as seasonal goods, greeting cards, candy and other snacks, and beverages. It also offers its merchandise on the Internet, through its fivebelow.com e-commerce Website, offering home delivery and the option to buy online and pick up in store. It also sells its merchandise through on-demand third-party delivery services to enable its customers to shop online and receive convenient delivery.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.