Stock Price & Analysis

Buy AA stock near the $28 support level for potential upside.

The price prediction for AA stock in 2025 is $45. This forecast is based on analyst price targets and technical analysis, with the stock currently trading near key support levels and potential upside from tariff impacts.

The S1 support level for AA Stock is $30.67 ,The R1 resistant level for AA Stock is $34.

As of the end of day on 2025-03-13, the price of AA Stock was $32.22.

The target price for AA Stock according to analyst rating is 47.57, with the highest price target at 58.00 and the lowest at 40.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on AA Stock overall.

The market cap of AA is $8.7B.

Analysis and Insights

Alcoa (AA) appears to be overvalued based on several key metrics and market trends.

Valuation Metrics:

Alcoa's current valuation metrics suggest a premium relative to industry peers. The stock has a high P/E ratio of 134.75 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.38, indicating that investors are paying a significant premium for future growth expectations. The price-to-sales ratio of 1.06 and price-to-book ratio of 1.45 further support the overvaluation thesis.

Financial Performance:

The company's financial performance has been inconsistent. While Q4 2024 net income improved to $202 million, the gross margin of 17.58% and ROE of 5.79% are below industry standards. This suggests that Alcoa is not generating strong returns on equity, which could justify its current valuation.

Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis:

The stock has been trending lower, losing nearly 6% recently, with traders eyeing the $28 support level. This level has historically provided support, but the current downtrend raises concerns about potential further declines.

Industry and Event Impact:

The aluminum industry faces headwinds, including regulatory pressures and shifting demand for sustainable materials. Alcoa's recent debt offering to refinance existing obligations may indicate strategic financial restructuring but also adds to its debt burden.

Conclusion:

Given the high valuation metrics, inconsistent profitability, and negative market sentiment, Alcoa appears overvalued. Investors should exercise caution and consider these factors before making any investment decisions.

Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company, which is engaged in bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company’s operations consist of two reportable business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment consists of the Company’s worldwide refining system, which processes bauxite into alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold primarily to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Company’s Aluminum segment consists of worldwide smelting and cast house system, which processes alumina into primary aluminum, and portfolio of energy assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. Its smelting operations produce molten primary aluminum, which is then formed by the casting operations into either common alloy ingot or into value-add ingot products.

The price prediction for AA stock by 2030 is $60, driven by strong demand for aluminum in renewable energy and electric vehicles. Analysts maintain a buy rating with a $45-$51 target, suggesting long-term growth potential.

AA has a total of 13600 employees.