Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a concise analysis of AA (Alcoa) stock:

Market Movement & Catalysts AA stock has shown positive momentum, rising 2.89% to $37.16. The stock received a significant boost from President Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [1,3], which is expected to benefit domestic producers like Alcoa.

Technical Analysis

• Current price ($37.19) is trading between Fibonacci resistance R1 ($37.29) and pivot point ($35.60)
• RSI-6 at 61.50 indicates moderate bullish momentum without being overbought
• RSI-14 at 50.27 suggests neutral momentum in the medium term

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst actions show mixed but generally positive outlook:

• Morgan Stanley: Buy rating with $51 PT (48.56% upside)
• JP Morgan: Hold rating with $40 PT (2.29% upside)
• Jefferies: Strong Buy rating with $45 PT (23.29% upside)

Conclusion Based on the positive catalyst from tariff implementation, bullish technical indicators, and majority positive analyst sentiment, AA stock presents a buying opportunity at current levels. The stock has strong support from both fundamental policy changes and technical indicators, suggesting potential for further upside.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's the price prediction for Alcoa (AA) stock in 2025:

Alcoa's stock price is projected to reach $46.33 by end of 2025, supported by analysts' consensus price targets ranging from $39 to $50. The bullish outlook is driven by strong Q4 2024 performance with sales of $3.49 billion and net income of $202 million, combined with President Trump's newly announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports which boosted AA stock by 3.6% today.

The S1 support level for AA Stock is $33.91 ,The R1 resistant level for AA Stock is $37.29.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-11, the price of AA Stock was $37.03.

The target price for AA Stock according to analyst rating is 47.57, with the highest price target at 58.00 and the lowest at 40.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on AA Stock overall.

The market cap of AA is $9.5B.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis of Alcoa's (AA) valuation:

Valuation Analysis AA currently shows mixed valuation signals. The stock's P/E ratio of 134.78 for Q4 2024 appears significantly high compared to historical levels, suggesting potential overvaluation from an earnings perspective. However, this needs to be contextualized with other metrics.

Recent Performance & Catalysts

• The stock has shown positive momentum, with a +2.21% gain in regular market trading and additional gains in extended hours on February 10, 2025.
• Recent tariff news has provided a strong catalyst - President Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has boosted AA's stock along with other metals producers.

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst ratings show:

• Morgan Stanley: $51 price target with Buy rating (48.56% upside)
• JP Morgan: $40 price target with Hold rating (2.29% upside)
• Jefferies: $45 price target with Strong Buy rating (23.29% upside)

Financial Metrics The company shows concerning metrics:

• Net margin of 3.1% is below industry standards
• ROE of 1.97% indicates inefficient capital utilization
• Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56 suggests higher leverage than ideal

Conclusion AA appears overvalued at current levels due to:

1. Extremely high P/E ratio compared to historical norms
2. Weak profitability metrics
3. High debt levels
4. Recent price surge primarily driven by tariff news rather than fundamental improvements

While the tariff news provides near-term support, the fundamental metrics suggest caution is warranted at current valuations.

Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company, which is engaged in bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company’s operations consist of two reportable business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment consists of the Company’s worldwide refining system, which processes bauxite into alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold primarily to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Company’s Aluminum segment consists of worldwide smelting and cast house system, which processes alumina into primary aluminum, and portfolio of energy assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. Its smelting operations produce molten primary aluminum, which is then formed by the casting operations into either common alloy ingot or into value-add ingot products.

Based on the provided data and news context, I'll analyze AA's (Alcoa) price prediction for 2030:

Alcoa's stock price is projected to reach $65-70 by 2030, driven by three key factors:

1. The implementation of Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports positions Alcoa for significant market share growth in domestic production, with recent stock performance showing positive response to trade protection measures.

2. The company's Q4 2024 financial turnaround showing strong revenue growth to $3.49 billion and return to profitability with $202 million net income demonstrates improving operational efficiency that supports long-term growth.

3. The positive analyst sentiment with multiple upgrades in late 2024, including price targets up to $50 in the near term, suggests strong fundamentals for continued upward trajectory.

AA has a total of 13600 employees.